I'm not convinced it is Hillary bleeding as much as Obama making his move, and I think if she starts to fall she won't make a comeback. Once Dean started to fall around this time four years ago, he didn't make it back. Regardless, I think the independent and undecided voters are more important than the die-hard supporters of the Big 3 who aren't going to waver, and those numbers are tough to gauge in these polls.

On the other hand....

www.11alive.com/.../article_politics.aspx

Clinton 37

Obama 36

Now...national polls don't mean much, as the contest will most likely be decided in NH/IA/SC. But a large movement in the national numbers would mean SOMETHING significant has happened to shift the race....

For the record, I don't take much stock in this poll. It would be more believable if Hillary sunk while Obama stayed steady....

Meanwhile: Intrade has Obama up to 18.0 after reaching a low of 11 last month.

Hillary is down to 70.3 after reaching a high of 75.

Justin01587:

The question is - what is causing Hillary's numbers to drop? A bad week or real flaws in her candidacy that lay dormant but are beginning to surface?

I have no empirical evidence to prove this (in fact, poll numbers seem to contradict it), but anecdotally, I have found that there is a surprisingly high level of hostility toward Hillary Clinton amongst Democratic primary voters. Until now, even these hostile voters have gone along with her in polls because (1) the media has trumpeted her strength and (2) no one was really paying attention.

This visceral reaction to Hillary Clinton has remained dormant - ready to emerge at any time when primed by events.

As blog posts go, this is thin. Hillary hasn't lost her lead in Iowa, reflecting the fact that . . . Hillary hasn't lost her lead in Iowa. Which may or may not be a good thing. Either this apple is green all over, or some of it isn't . . . .

For both the Republican and Democrat poll numbers, a bit over 50% of voters HAVEN'T MADE UP THEIR MINDS. Looking at a candidate poll number of 37% doesn't exactly conjure up images of a juggernaut, when you know that a 37% share of the 48% of voters who have made a choice translates to... a little under 18% of the total.

There will be a lot more movement in the next 2 months, as the uncommitted percentages start to go down.

Huckabee surges as the authentic evangelical and Giuliani benefits. Amazing how that all works out.

I think that, even though it can be argued that hillary's recent wounds (the last debate plus planted questionarre's are but 2 examples) have been self-inflicted, obama is clearly capatalizing on them. Good for him. Returning, as is my wont, to the boxing ring, its now obvious a cut has been opened up over her eye. A small cut, yes, but a cut nonetheless. The early rounds belonged to her, thanks largely to the wholesale backing of the MSM, but we're moving to the middle rounds. The question now is, does obama have the killer instinct and boxing wherewithal to go after it, open it up even more so the blood gushes out. Two weeks ago, i'd have answered no. My impression was he found the down and dirty part of politics too distasteful. Now, and especially after his speech last saturday night, the answer could be yes. Maybe he's finally realized what kind of opponent she is, one who'll throw everything but the kitchen sink at anyone who's got the guts to stand in her way.

I think his speech a few nights ago was the best so far of the campaign, from either party.