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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
07.10.2008
"No Harm Can Come To Us" Shiekhdoms Are in Bad Shape

As I write, the American stock indices are down almost 2.5%, Asian markets closed down double that percentage and Russia...well, who trusts the Russian bourse anyway? The only really good news is that crude is down another $4.

But this is not the reason why, as AP reports today, "Stock Markets Across the Arab World Recorded Steep Losses Tuesday." Or, at least, it is not the only reason or the proximate reason. The benchmark index of the Cairo and Alexandria exchange dropped nearly 16%.. Maybe this was pent-up anxiety to join the rest of the world after weeks of marking fest days and fast days when markets are closed. In any case, this continues a trend from before Ramadan when securities were also skidding downwards.  In fact, the Egyptian exchange is down 44% since Jamuary. Poor Egypt. Nothing works there.

Saudi exchange is down 17% after two days of successive decline. The Dubai exchange is down 5% and the Kuwait exchange went south more than 6%. There's a lawsuit in the Kuwaiti courts to close the exchange. Why? Rich men can't seem to stand the sight of their wealth going down. This is even worse than forbidding shorts.

What's interesting is that the "no harm can come to us" sheikhdoms are in as bad shape as other Arab markets. The emirate markets are built on hot air, that is, the endless prosperity of the advanced countries. But the unravelling of their economies has already brought troubles to the emirates. I know that Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie were in one of those promotionals for some $25,000 a night hotel on the beach. But very few will continue to pay these prices not to be able to go into the ocean. You see, it's too hot.

The Tel Aviv index was up 4.5%.  No wonder that Hamas, according to Ha'aretz, attributed blame for the economic crisis on the Jewish lobby in America.  Yes, it was me and Alan Dershowitz and AIPAC.  Just ask Walt and Mearsheimer.

Posted: Tuesday, October 07, 2008 2:24 PM with 13 comment(s)

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teplukhin2you said:

Not so fast, Mr. P. The sheiks have the one thing that matters now, and tons of it: cash. Ditto for Russia and China. Russia's reserves even post-bank bailout are ca. $500b. China has $1.5 * TRILLION * in reserves.

The Arabs will without question buy up a large chunk of corporate America soon. We've been here before. Al Waleed bought 25% of Citicorp in 1991 when the Fed was within an inch of shutting Citi down.

All eyes have to be on China now. Will the Chinese use their cash hoard to float new bonds? Will we and the Chinese move toward more integration?

As to the Russians, there could not be a better time to invest in Russian high-growth new companies, esp in the technology sector. Great technology at Filene's basement prices.

As for the macro outlook, I'd expect the world to get intensely local, and fast. Lend to those you trust. On doit cultiver son jardin. I'd bet local and regional banks will gain market share and profit hugely from this shakeout.

This strategist from Fidelity has it right, I think:

news.yahoo.com/.../fto100620081218074559

October 7, 2008 2:47 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

You're way off message today Telukhin.

Please read the memo - Arab nations evil, Europe will be over run with violent Mooslilms and Israel is perfect.

October 7, 2008 3:00 PM

luispc said:

"No wonder that Hamas, according to Ha'aretz, attributed blame for the economic crisis on the Jewish lobby in America.  Yes, it was me and Alan Dershowitz and AIPAC.  Just ask Walt and Mearsheimer."

You have kept yourselves busy, haven't you?

October 7, 2008 3:27 PM

teplukhin2you said:

iggy - you and I are in the wrong business. Think local, not global. Wish I had a small local commercial bank right now, maybe also a local newspaper.

October 7, 2008 3:41 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Read the link. A good summary.

Trust local, is an interesting theory. But Japan, China, Russia and the ME central banks have to do something with those dollars, and Treasury notes are limited in their appeal. I can't see the flow of investment in US companies from those regions drying up, or even slowing down. That is, if there are any private companies left after this shake out.

October 7, 2008 3:56 PM

luispc said:

Speaking seriously now. I'm so tyred of worrying with "the markets".

Just a few weeks ago I couldn't care less if "the markets" were up or down, thought that "derivatives" had to do with some grammar rule I had forgotten, was used to have the word "capitalism" silenced as outdated marxist vocabulary, etc., etc.

Now, all of the suden I find myself obsessed with "the markets". If the Dow goes down, I worry. It's unbelievable.

October 7, 2008 4:00 PM

luispc said:

"Think local, not global."

What's the name of that "small town" Palin lives in? Wasilla, isn't it?

Well, I guess we are all moving to Wasilla shortly (that if you have me, since I'm a sort of "Latino")...

We'll read Father Brown loud, learn to fly fish, watch Frank Capra movies and do business in local commercial banks...

PS: local commercial banks in delightful small places such as Iceland and Ireland are falling down; the only ones surviving are giants such as Barclays and Santander, the ones that are able to "absorb" the local ones...

October 7, 2008 4:07 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Life goes on. Cash keeps flowing. There is an enormous opportunity now for good old-fashioned commercial lending based on character, collateral, cashflow etc. Actually there are tons of opportunities all over the place. Brave new world taking shape.

October 7, 2008 4:22 PM

jacksondyer said:

The Irish antisemitic  Fascist is back:

The Ignorant Populist said:   Please read the memo - Arab nations evil, Europe will be over run with violent Mooslilms and Israel is perfect."

BIGOT!

October 7, 2008 8:29 PM

ndmackenzie said:

Martin Peretz writes:

-- In fact, the Egyptian exchange is down 44% since Jamuary. Poor Egypt. Nothing works there.

As opposed to Israel, for example, where the TA-25 index is down only 34% (1217, 798) since the start of the year - including yesterday's 3.9% upswing.

You can tell someone is selling you a bill of goods when he compares the year-to-date change of one thing with yesterday's change of another.

October 8, 2008 8:28 PM

noga1 said:

The Ignorant Populist:  

"Please read the memo - Arab nations evil, Europe will be over run with violent Mooslilms and Israel is perfect."

In physics, generally, if the rules (or laws) governing a system are correct, then they can apply or  can be transferred from one system to another and still remain valid.

For instance, the theory of Special Relativity deals with the equivalency of mass and energy, linked by the speed of light (E=mc^2). However, when the mathematical expressions are approximated to slow moving bodies, this theory describes exactly the classical Newtonian mechanics.

One might say that The Ignorant Populist's sarcastic summation is a de-facto acknowledgement of a much more intricate and fluid reality, which, with the right approximations, describes exactly what he said, stripped of its sarcasm.

That is to say, that Arab nations do not act or speak in good faith,

that Europe is clueless about what to do about its Muslim minorities,

and that Israel is cretainly a resilient and talented little country

trying to extract the most from the meagre assets it has,

and under the most unfavourable conditions

(not the least of which is the visceral contempt by the likes of IgPo).

October 9, 2008 2:31 PM

The Spine said:

1. Friday's New York Post sports a front page headline reporting that "STOCKS SOAR!" Not

October 11, 2008 12:21 AM

The Spine said:

Apropos my SPINE on the artificial jurisdictions in the Gulf , I plum forgot other people who'd be

October 11, 2008 12:30 AM

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