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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
12.05.2008
Trouble in Lebanon
They were obsessed with the war between Israel and Hezbollah. It had to stop: a cease fire at all costs. So Condi Rice stepped into the fray and, as soon as Israel had truly won the upper hand in battle, she produced a cease fire.  Its terms were on every essential count altogether vague. The U.N. force that had been a flop for so long in keeping the peace would now be enlarged. But there was no certainty as to its numbers or its composition, its mission in general or its specific relations with Syria and its mercurial pawn, Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah taunted everybody that his death machine was stronger than ever. Most governments laughed. The people of Lebanon--at least most of its Christians, the Sunnis and the Druze--now realize that his claims are no joke. The Shi'a grasped that long ago, and most of them have been following his bloody banner ever since.
 
The only success the cease fire had was in preventing Israel from impeding the Syrian and Iranian rearmament of the fiery militia that has now shown that its power is not limited to southern Lebanon but extends way north to Tripoli and into the Bekaa Valley. A very informative account of the developments in Lebanon--actually a crystal-clear account--in Monday's Financial Times reports that "Saudi and Egyptian officials said they were dismayed by Hizbollah's actions, which they have described as unacceptable." Unacceptable? This is the vernacular of pretentious regimes that can affect nothing.
 
Ten days ago foolish Israelis took up the chorus of withdrawal from the Golan and peace with Syria. The sage and sober editorialists in the Western press got very excited. But the events in Lebanon are more than a hint that Bashir Assad does not want this celebration.
 
If you want to read a truly desolating account of how we came to this pass and what it implies for the future of the Middle East read Beni Avni's article in Monday's New York Sun.

Posted: Monday, May 12, 2008 10:11 PM with 21 comment(s)

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The Spine said:

My last posting on Lebanon was half-intuition, half-nightmare. It has already happened. By the time a

May 12, 2008 10:45 PM

liberal reformer said:

Condi Rice is in over her head. And the idea that returning the Golan to Bashir A. will lessen his hostility is just risible. More likely it will merely whet his appetite. I shake my head in disbelief every time that someone says that a solution to the Israeli - Palestinian conflict is the key to peace in the Middle East.

May 13, 2008 12:25 AM

sleepyavl said:

Hey lib ref, that's nice to hear. Finally someone who understands the Middle East!

However, I differ from you about the Golan. I think Israel should give back Golan to Syria. When? In the week after USA gives back Texas to Mexico and France gives back Alsace to Germany.

May 13, 2008 1:06 AM

jacksondyer said:

Condi isn't the only problem, Marty. In fact she is on her way out while Obama may be on his way in.

Did you notice what he said about the current crises in Lebanon? He said pretty much what Egypt and the Saudis said which you thought was a joke:

www.commentarymagazine.com/.../5491

"Obama Stares Down Hezbollah

Noah Pollak - 05.11.2008 - 2:19 PM

Yesterday Barack Obama released a statement about the crisis in Lebanon that surely must be cause for celebration in Tehran, Damascus, and Bint Jbeil. First of all, there is the alternate-reality feel to it:

“This effort to undermine Lebanon’s elected government needs to stop, and all those who have influence with Hezbollah must press them to stand down immediately.”

Does Obama understand that the people who “have influence with Hezbollah” happen to be the same people on whose behalf Hezbollah is rampaging through Lebanon?"

You have yourself on previous occasions quoted Noah Pollak's blog.

I wonder what your view about this is?

Real support for Israel will include fighting Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations like Hamas  and not saying you are against them.

May 13, 2008 8:02 AM

bigfish said:

sleepyavl, get your history right.  Texas itself defeated Mexico.  No matter what the Hollywood-types who put an American flag in the background of the box art of the movie "Alamo" want you to think, the United States of America didn't fight for Texan independence.

As a Texan, it is my duty to set records straight.  :-p

And jackson, it's not like Obama can himself put any pressure on Hezbollah.  Saudi Arabia and Egypt can put pressure, and have armies to fight with (although that would NEVER happen).  "Real support for Israel will include fighting Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations like Hamas and not saying you are against them."  What do you expect Obama to do to "fight?"

May 13, 2008 9:50 AM

liberal reformer said:

Bigfish: Jacksondyer is merely pointing to Barack Obama's naivete concerning Hezbollah and events in Lebanon.

May 13, 2008 10:45 AM

jacksondyer said:

Thank you, liberal reformer, I guess I need a translator. Big Fish seems to speak in Texican or Spanglish.

Creo que necesito escribir al “pescado grande” en Texican.

May 13, 2008 11:07 AM

bigfish said:

lib ref - I guess I just misread what what Jackson said.  I saw the argument as:

Marty criticizes Egypt and Saudi Arabia for criticizing Hezbollah with words.

Obama criticizes Hezbollah with words.

They both are using words without actions to back them up, and therefore are morally equivilant in this matter.

I know Jackson knows that Obama and Lebanon's Arab neighbors are in different positions and have different amounts of leverage.

All I'm saying is that Obama (and really, most other American politicians) has only words at his disposal to try to pressure Hezbollah, while Arab governments probably have a little more levers to pull, even with the Sunni/Shi'a divide between Egypt/Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah.

May 13, 2008 11:18 AM

bigfish said:

...and also, with respect to Obama trying to pressure folks to pressure Hezbollah (Syria...Iran...) to stop warring in Lebanon, I don't think that Obama is naive enough to think a press release will do much good.  But when words are all the influence you have, words are what you use.  It's not naive to say what's right, only to think that your words will succeed where the same words have failed before.

In the earlier post, my argument by fake over-incredulity (the self-conscious straw-man?) doesn't read well in text form.

And you don't need to speak Spanish.  I'm an American, darnit!  And I speak Mehr'cun, even when my tongue's in my cheek.

May 13, 2008 11:29 AM

liberal reformer said:

Jacksondyer: De nada. Say, how about if we post a manifesto to McCain? TNR is a widely read magazine in the political world and there must be campaign staffers having a look at some of these blogs. There has to be quite a few people like us who are disaffected by Obama but extremely queasy about tossing in their lots with the Republicans. McCain needs to reach out to people like us. What do you think?

May 13, 2008 11:37 AM

jacksondyer said:

"McCain needs to reach out to people like us. What do you think?"  LR

Give me a week to ten days to think about it, LR.

I'll be off to the mid-West traveling and I won't be back till then.

May 13, 2008 1:48 PM

liberal reformer said:

Jacksondyer: Bon voyage. See ya when you return.

May 13, 2008 1:59 PM

boneill said:

If you make it to Chitown, Jackson, look me up and I can buy you a beer and explain in excruciating detail why you are wrong about Obama.  How's that sound?

May 13, 2008 3:01 PM

liberal reformer said:

Boneill: Jacksondyer is likely not wrong about Obama. But it will be interesting to hear of the exchange if it comes off. There seem to be so many of you Platonists among the Obama supporters: the great man has arrived and he will lead us to the promised land. That there might be a few snags - or much worse - on the way doesn't seem to have occured to y'all.

May 13, 2008 3:30 PM

r-ennis said:

McCain was offered VP on the Kerry ticket. He used to be a TNR darling until Obamania infected the brains of just about all TNR staff, with the somewhat honorable exception of Wieseltier. I can live with McCain. He ain't Bush as he is now being portrayed.

May 13, 2008 3:48 PM

boneill said:

Liberal Reformer- I enjoy your posts.   A lot.  Its good to have you here.   But when you say "There seem to be so many of you Platonists among the Obama supporters: the great man has arrived and he will lead us to the promised land. That there might be a few snags - or much worse - on the way doesn't seem to have occured to y'all."  

I have to respond thusly: fuck that.  No one here thinks he is the great man on high, the savior, all that.  Of course there are snags; he's a fucking human being.  We get this.  The only time the savior is brought up is by people trying to paint us all as a bunch of slack-jawed yokels gazing drool-struck at a shiny object.  Knock it off.  That's insulting, and beneath you.

May 13, 2008 4:23 PM

boneill said:

But he is wrong about Obama on the Middle East.  Do you know who, were I running for President I would have on a list of people to call for advice?  Robert Malloy.  And Brezinski.  And Daniel Pipes, and Bernard Lewis, and a host of other people who don't agree.  Since when did having a range of advisors become a bad thing?  

And this Robert Malloy thing is just a bunch of absurd piffle anyway.  I think it is good for the President, or a candidate, to know what the hell the leadership of Hamas is thinking and doing.   That isn't the same as negotiating with them.  Its just another piece of information.

May 13, 2008 4:27 PM

liberal reformer said:

Boneill: I apologize. There is a lot of Obamamania out here, though. I only latched on to Hillary because of my severe reservations about Obama. Now that she is a sinking ship, I am lost.

May 13, 2008 4:48 PM

boneill said:

No offense taken or apology needed, lib ref.  Sorry for the cussing.  I know you don't see all of us that way, but that has become my default response when people say that.  You do your (ex?) candidate proud.

May 13, 2008 5:05 PM

liberal reformer said:

Boneill: Thank you for the magnanimous comments. I think that the "change " mantra has driven me so crazy that I see messianism where it does not exist.

May 13, 2008 5:24 PM

The Spine said:

No one really cares about Lebanon. And nobody really knows about Lebanon. I've been there myself

May 15, 2008 4:01 PM

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