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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
06.01.2009
Or Maybe We Should Just All Chill About the Stimulus

Having just posted two separate items expressing concern, although not outrage, over the way Obama's stimulus package is shaping up, I thought I should also point out two very smart arguments for why Obama's decision is not just politically necessary but also politically astute.

One comes from my colleague Noam Scheiber, over at the Stump, who suggests that Obama has very cleverly called the Republican's bluff by including substantial tax breaks, the bulk of which will benefit lower- and middle-income people:

If the GOP accepts, then great. If they turn around and say, "Well, when we said tax cuts, we actually meant tax cuts for wealthy people, not for low- and middle-income people," then it becomes blindingly obvious that they weren't making a principled argument at all. They were trying to shake Obama down on behalf of their rich cronies.

The other argument comes from Ed Kilgore, who blogs at the Democratic Strategist and is far more savvy about politics than I am:  

If, as I've suggested, Obama's strategy is to pursue a form of "grassroots bipartisanship" that builds broad public support outside Washington, a stimulus package that includes significant and popular middle-class-oriented tax cuts--a centerpiece, lest we forget, of his presidential campaign--makes a lot of sense. It's Republican, independent, and Democratic constituencies outside Washington--already roiled by the special-interest orientation of earlier "bailout" or "stimulus" measures--that are most likely to welcome tax cuts that actually benefit them, assuming that will represent the bulk of the $300 billion we are talking about.

As for Team Obama's alleged interest in kowtowing to Mitch McConnell--again, there's no real evidence to suggest that they've made or are willing to make major concessions to get more than a handful of GOP conservatives (which is all they will need if Democrats stick together) on board. Best I can tell, the idea is to move the whole package through the budget reconciliation process, which facilitates big up-or-down votes rather than death-by-amendment. Crafting a package that's appealing to the public as big, immediate in impact, and focused on both broad national challenges and middle-class pocketbooks is most likely to create the Reagan-1981 dynamic of a coherent "bipartisan" piece of legislation that demands majority support outside and inside Congress. If that's true, then perhaps the "compromises" supposedly being made in the development of the package are the last, not the first.

--Jonathan Cohn 

Posted: Tuesday, January 06, 2009 2:41 PM with 4 comment(s)

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lsernoff said:

What never seems to occur to the "progressives" is that the Republicans might have the right idea (or, at least, "a" right idea).  Apparently, Obama and his economic team see what the "progressives" cannot see.  A tax cut oriented toward lower and middle income wage-earners that shows up in regular increments in their pay checks is far more likely to be spent than was a single large check last year.  Also, a cut in taxes for small businesses, is likely to produce more jobs than would develop without such cuts.

There is a place for targeted infrastructure spending as well as tax cuts in a stimulative program.  But the awful truth is that right wing Republicans' suspicion of government finds its mirror image in left wing Democrats' suspicion of private business.  

January 6, 2009 3:39 PM

kgrant1054 said:

Even shorter Cohn: "D'oh!"  

January 6, 2009 4:55 PM

jsincalif said:

While the Obama-Biden Plan for economic revitalization is well-intentioned and has many good ideas, there are some tax-cut ideas which are poorly-conceived and counter-productive.  Some particulars:

1) New American Jobs Tax Credit

Jobs need to be offered in response to actual business need, not government subsidy, for them to actually contribute to the economy and to be productive and sustainable.  Anyway, the $3000 credit per job is not enough to actually induce businesses to hire more people.  Accordingly, these credits would simply reward businesses for hiring they would have done anyway, without such credits.  As such, this would be a big cash giveaway, on the order of tens of billions of dollars, to no positive end.

2) Zero capital gains rate for iinvestment in small business.

As per Economics 101, economies work efficiently when economic decisions are based on the intrinsic economic merit of those decisions, and not skewed by externalities, such as special tax preferences for certain actions.  Decisions to invest in small businesses, or in any other businesses or economic activities, should be based on their intrinsic economic merits, not on relative tax advantages.  When such tax-advantages are introduced, then decisions inevitably skew investments in ways contrary to what would best fit and respond to economic conditions and realities.  Taxation of all investments, in fact of all income, should be subject to uniform taxation regimes, so as not to artificially incentives in ways that inevitably worsen investment decisions.

3) Special tax-rates for seniors

Why should income tax rates be based on age?  All people of all ages face various challenges.  There is no economic or moral reason why people of one age should have more favorable tax-rates than people of another age.  Income rates should be based on income levels, period.

4) Middle class tax-cuts

During the Presidential campaign, Barack Obama properly excoriated President Bush for enacting large tax-cuts "for people who did not even ask for them".  He further properly pronounced that we should not take the same actions and use the same approaches over and over again and expect different results.  For the past eight years, we have had big tax-cuts, big deficit-spending, and a big deficit-funded tax-rebate stimulus attempt.  Yet, this has not prevented two recessions, including the present one, and has introduced many financial and economic problems, including hurting American trade competitiveness by artificially making the dollar expensive relative to other currencies.  So, why does he plan to repeat George Bush's mistakes, and then expect a different outcome?  For many reasons, we need to reduce federal deficits, and this will require increasing tax-rates at least to Clinton era levels, about which few complained.  Tax-rates especially need to be raised on higher-income people, but all Americans who received tax-cuts under President Bush should have those cuts revoked, not increased.  Perhaps the tax-cut-reduction on the 93% of the middle-class that are still employed could be postponed for a year.  But stimulus spending need not and should not all be deficit-financed.  One of the things which could most inspire public and business confidence, and therefore improve the functioning of the credit and investment markets, would be evidence of responsibility at the top regarding federal budgeting.

5) Suspending taxation of unemployment benefits.

Definitely unemployment benefits should be extended; during recessions it takes much longer for people who lose jobs to find new employment.  But, there is no reason why those benefits should not be taxed, just like all other income.  For many, those unemployment benefits might even be higher than the wage-income of others who are working.  Why should people with low wage-income have to pay more taxes on their income than people who are receiving higher income from unemployment benefits.  Income is income.  The rates of taxation of all income should be based on income levels, not on the source of that income.  This is not only fair, it also promotes the sense of a shared fate and a shared responsibility for the overall society.

6) Exempting 401k and IRA withdrawals from taxation

The contents of 401k and IRA accounts have already had favorable taxation treatment all along, since they were initially invested.  There is no reason why these particular funds should get even more special tax-treatment by being exempted from taxation upon withdrawal.  Why should they get even more special treatment relative to investments people made outside such tax-favored accounts?  Many people did not even have 401k plans available to them, so they could not even make such investments.  Again, income taxation rates should be based on income levels, not on the source of the income.

January 6, 2009 5:41 PM

bonesw505 said:

"Obama's decision is not just politically necessary but also politically astute. "

Um, is there some other class of politically necessary actions that are nevertheless politically unwise?

January 6, 2009 6:27 PM