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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
06.01.2009
Oh Mother (Russia)

With another gas showdown between Ukraine and Russian gas behemoth Gazprom now underway, it is worth being reminded of the surreal aspect of Putin's Russia. Gazprom has decided that it will reduce deliveries of Russian gas to Ukraine; many observers believe that the dispute is actually a political one. The New York Times, in an excellent short piece, manages to capture the strangeness of Putin's rule:

The announcement took the form of a conversation between Putin and the chief executive of Gazprom, Aleksei B. Miller, during an evening newscast on Russian state television. As they have in the past, the men accused Ukraine of diverting gas from pipelines that send it through Ukraine to Europe, something the Ukrainian government has denied doing.

Mr. Putin asked Mr. Miller how much Ukraine had diverted. About 65.3 million cubic meters of natural gas since Jan. 1, the executive said. “What are you going to do?” Mr. Putin then asked.

Mr. Miller responded that he was considering ordering Gazprom to immediately cut exports bound for Western Europe...

Mr. Putin asked, “How about the supplies to our Western European consumers under long-term contracts?” Mr. Miller said that Europe would only lack what “Ukraine had stolen.”

Mr. Putin then said: “Good, I agree, cut it from today.”

Perhaps this is how Obama should award money to Detroit's automakers: Sit down with Bernanke or Geithner, bring in some cameras, and announce the policy. On the other hand...

--Isaac Chotiner

Posted: Tuesday, January 06, 2009 2:09 PM with 2 comment(s)

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teplukhin2you said:

"Surreal"? Not so. Gazprom has next to nothing in common with any transparent, privately-held western company. It's essentially a state-owned slush fund for the mafiya-FSB-siloviki gangsters who have criminalized the Russian State.

There is no transparency and effectively no pressure for same, now that activist investor Bill Browder has been forbidden by PutinMobutu to enter Russia. IIUC, shares in the company not owned by the state remain off-limits to foreign investors. All of the "private" shareholders are either top state officials or connected to same, often by family. For ex., even before PutinMobutu shifted Russian state corruption into overdrive, Yeltsin's PM in the late 90s, Chernomyrdin, owned IIRC about 5% of the company.

Consider also that Gazprom is essentially a low-tech supplier of a fungible resource that is very easily siphoned, diverted, re-routed, skimmed, or, y'know, stolen. The favored means of theft is via "trading subsidiaries" which handle the cash flows and divert a large portion of same into private accounts in havens like Liechtenstein, Switz, etc. PutinMobutu himself has a 50% stake in one of these trading entities, which is why he is easily Europe's wealthiest man.  

Could we please have some more (knowledgeable, on-scene, in-depth) dispatches from Russia?

This gangster state will likely be Obama's #1 f-p challenge. Best to get on top of it before the gangsters do to Ukraine's govt what Stalin did to the Czechoslovakian govt in 1948.

January 6, 2009 4:40 PM

Robert Powell said:

Hey tep! I thought you'd fallen off the earth! Anyway, nice to hear from you again.

This is looking like a major Putin fuck-up from over here. First off, Ukraine already has enough gas stashed away to make it through April, so it's the Good Customers paying top dollar who are getting shafted. The Krauts, among others, are livid. At a time when demand and prices are plunging, Russia can ill-afford to piss off their best customers.

Second, Ukraine is holding out for more equitable transit fees if Russia demands full market prices, and they've got a strong hand to play. They do have most of the transit infrastructure Russia needs to turn the gas into cash, and should by all rights be getting more offsets. Plus, they have a not-insignificant amount of gas themselves, and are developing good relations with other sources like Iran and Qatar.

I second your Czechoslovakia analogy and prediction/suggestion for Obama.

January 7, 2009 2:30 PM