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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
11.12.2008
How Will Obama Approach China?

With Obama having announced his national security team last week, we asked Perry Link, a China specialist and Chancellorial Chair for Teaching Across Disciplines at the University of California at Riverside, to weigh in on what challenges his administration will face in regards to China:

How will the Obama presidency approach China? Two especially big questions stand out, and those two are related.

One question is whether an Obama administration can be the first in more than 50 years to think of China as a bigger, more complex thing than the Chinese government alone. The other is whether it can get beyond the coterie of "China policy managers" in and around Washington who have "educated" (their word) every president since Jimmy Carter in why and how to be sensitive to China's rulers.

No one denies that China's rulers are powerful men, and it would be folly to ignore them. But when the words "China" and "Chinese" come to refer only to the Beijing super-elite and their policies--and Washington policy lingo has long made this a habit--the result is boxed-in thinking and narrowly based policy. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is reported to have been the lead person on China policy in the Bush administration since 2006. Paulson "engages China" frequently--by which he means holding small meetings with representatives of China's rulers (in English, by the way, since he doesn't know Chinese) on trade relations, currency regulation, and WTO rules.

The issue matters because, without discounting the importance of what goes on in those small meetings, the whole of China is much, much bigger. And different, too. The cost of ignoring the differences can be immense.

The clearest example of this kind of mistake in recent decades happened in the summer of 1989. To call the protest movement of that year a "Tiananmen Movement" is really a misnomer. There were large demonstrations in all of China's provincial capitals in spring, and in many other cities as well. Student protesters led the movement, but workers and farmers far outnumbered them. And people who feared to protest, but sympathized, were even more numerous, certainly in the tens of millions. That movement was not elite; it was an upheaval from below.

If U.S. policymakers had seen this fact clearly, much good--both for China and for the U.S.--could have come by dignified but firm public statements of principled support for the protesters, both before and after the massacre on June 4. Instead, after the repression, George H.W. Bush dispatched envoys Brent Scowcroft and Lawrence Eagleburger secretly (it was later reported that the secrecy extended even to arranging in-flight re-fueling of their jet over the Pacific) to Beijing to assure China's rulers of the continued wish of the American administration to "engage" with them.

Since then, both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush went to Washington with certain ideas about standing for human rights in China, but, after "steep learning curves" under the tutelage of the professional China-policy managers, reverted essentially to the Bush Sr. position.

The question of whether Barack Obama will follow the same path is especially important not only because, once again, we have a new and "untutored" president on the scene. It is also important because, inside China, protests from below are again on the rise. Resentment of local officials is growing more intense and a "rights movement" is spreading, as became dramatically evident this week with the release in Beijing of "Charter 08," a call by more than 300 prominent Chinese for an end to authoritarian government. A significant amount of good could be done by an American president saying--just saying--to the Chinese people that yes, human rights, democracy, and rule are law are fine ideals and we support you 100 percent if you want them, too. But the China policy managers will not recommend this. They normally refer to "China human rights issues" not as things that are actually going on in China but as domestic U.S. political problems. ("Congress is fussing!") A smart policy manager has to "manage" the problem, because the rulers in Beijing are "very sensitive" to it.

I hope I am wrong, but I do not see anyone on President-elect Obama's foreign policy team who has the knowledge and experience to help him get beyond the entrenched Washington principle that "China" equals China's rulers. The one prominent Democrat who could probably do this is Nancy Pelosi, but she is not on the team.

--Perry Link

Posted: Thursday, December 11, 2008 2:29 PM with 5 comment(s)

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iambiguous said:

There was once a time when conservatives seethed over those who were responsible for "losing China". Now, of course, with all the investments [and debt]  American corporations and the government have tied up in economic transactions there, they only trot out the occasional "tsk tsk" and wag their fingers at the authoritarian political clamps the Chinese government imposes on its citizens.

Yet when some folks point out how this reflects the true nature of American foreign policy [it's all about the Benjamins] it barely registers on the media scales.

Similarly, there nave been any number of publications that pointed to the close relationship between the Saudi Arabian potentates and the Bush family dynasty. What does this say about the narrative that America is committed to spreading democracy around the globe?

But those who conduct this feckless and hypocritical global policy know that they can hide it all in plain sight. And they know this because they can count on the bulk of American citizens not having a clue about what really transpires from bank to bank to bank.

Much less care about it.

I recall once Bush was joking about how he wished he could run America like the Chinese run China. And with respect to the national security state infrastructure he has installed, he already does. Now, with the trillion dollar bailout package for Wall Street and the unprecedented power residing in the offices of Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke, there is less and less of a difference beyween the two countries in that respect either.

But how will that change with Barack Obama. If, of course, it changes at all.

george walton

December 11, 2008 3:14 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Refreshing article.

I wish Obama the best trying to navigate around that corporate mafia.

December 11, 2008 4:18 PM

satyendra said:

Obama should call human rights abuses as he sees them.  I think that could show leadership and shame China's rulers.  But under no circumstances should he say anything to the effect of "we support you 100%."  What does support mean - moral, material, or military? Clearly, the U. S. is only capable of providing the 1st, and when it promises or implies the other two, it always reneges, often to disastrous effect.  See the Iraqi Shia uprising in '91.

December 11, 2008 4:58 PM

blackton said:

If they US is going to be borrowing a trillion from the Chinese next year I am not sure how much Obama is up for antagonizing them. Short and long term the Chinese govt faces a hell of a bind in that they have to grow the economy at a great clip to hold onto power, but growing the economy at a great clip hammers their environment, in addition they face a serious demographic disaster in the next 2 decades as millions upon millions of men will face the prospect of never getting married. Thre are only so many North Korean women they can buy from the North Korean government to satisfy that huge population. Even if we could bypass the governmental elite, we will still only deal with the urban elite in the East coast power cities. We have been doing that for years. Environmentally we can make common cause, but there is dickall we can do about the 50 million unmarriageables.

December 11, 2008 7:00 PM

mclurman_temp said:

One big problem with trying to separate Chinese society from China's rulers is the almost complete silence of the Chinese diaspora in this country.  From my contacts with former citizens of the PRC in the American hi-tech industry I've been disappointed with the almost complete unwillingness of former PRC citizens to lend any support to even the most heroic Chinese dissidents.  It's not easy to tell whether this reluctance stems from fear, a habit of obedience or some combination.  

It's my impression that even thirty years ago when Taiwan was a pretty brutal dictatorship that Taiwanese students and professionals in this country had a pretty active resistance movement and support network for jailed Taiwanese democrats.  I've looked in vain for some of the same sentiments among my friends from the PRC.  

It's pretty hard for an American administration to address itself to an opposition with no sympathetic echo abroad.

December 15, 2008 2:34 AM