Never give this much credit to a single poll. Have we learned nothing from good Mr. Silver? On paper, the Minnesota Vikings were the best football team of the late 1990s. On paper, the Vikings won five straight Superbowls. In reality, the Denny Green-era Vikings never even made it to the big game. They playing of the game's the thing, and the fact that the positive numbers cited herein give Obama less than 50 percent support among white college grads, whites with some college, and white Catholics, is more troubling than promising. You don't win by having 48 percent a week before the election; you win by having 51 percent or more.

Do NOT start popping the corks!

Quit it! Stop!!

This poll is quite the outlier - all other national polls suggest a not inconsiderable tightening over the past few days. Not enough to be terribly worried about, but enough to suggest that Obama will probably only just break 50% and end up with somewhere south of 325 EVs. I hope the Pew poll is right, but I imagine that the 8% undecideds in it are going for McCain.

None of that!  No premature celebration.  Cautiously optimistic?  Certainly.  But no irrational exuberance, thank you very much.   This isn't over until McCain actually says the word 'concede', and even then I will have my doubts.  There are still far too many opportunities for random weirdness in this campaign.

Cautious optimism, larded liberally with a great deal of hard work - that is what is needed right now.  

No.  Keep the beer - no Champagne, not now, not in the climate, not in this election - in the cooler and keep your eye on the ball (excuse the mixed metaphor).  This is not the time for complacency, nor for premature ejac-, I mean, exuberance.  Polls, even now, even the extensive ones, even the most authoritative ones, mean nothing whatever.  The only poll that matters is the last one; and even then, the beer should stay in the cooler until McCain concedes and the Repugs withdraw their lawyers and their challenges to the elections.

And even then, the beer should stay in the cooler, because the Chimp in Chief could still make mischief for the next three months; because the country is bankrupt or near bankruptcy, because the challenges remain daunting, because there will be no room for any mistakes.

A long time ago, we won a huge case - the biggest I have ever worked on.  I was a wee junior counsel then, full of vim and vigor, flushed with the litigator's stridency and testosterone ... but even then, discussing Com Lines, my sole advice to the client was, "Don't gloat."  It isn't because it's unseemly - and it is - but because it wins you no friends and makes enemies.

So, keep the beer in the cooler for now and for some time to come.  If it comes to pass that Obama is elected, roll up the sleeves and get to work; Hercules was not sipping Champagne when cleaning the Augean Stables.

bhunziker: If Obama ends up with less that 325 electoral votes, I'll eat my hat. McCain hasn't led in North Carolina or Florida in WEEKS.

Now that improves my Tuesday blues.

Where's our Republican troll friends these days? What's his face? Eos, or something like that.

Didn't you see Fox this morning, they cited the Tipp poll that shows Obama ahead by a few, well within the margin of error. According to Fox this race is a statistical dead heat.

Naturally, as this was Fox I found the whole exercise laughable, and Nate Silver showed how the Tipp poll was screwy (it shows McCain winning the youth vote substantially). I am sure this poll is an outlier too.

One freaking week to go, lets get this done, and get it done right. No complacency.

NO CORKS UNTIL MCCAIN CONCEDES!!!  NONE!

Echoing everyone else here.  The undecideds are McCain voters, which means we are winning but narrowly.  I would prefer our position to theirs, but it's going to be close.  This Pew poll would render a result looking like 1980, which I'm just not buying.  Thanks for sharing the same premature ejac... er... excitement (albeit a week early) as when the 04 exits were leaked.  

The Vikings were the best team in the NFL on paper?  What paper was that?  LSD blotter?

Go Vote.

My guess is Obama wins 286 - 252. He takes all of the Kerry states + NM, CO, IO, and VA. He gets 50.5% of the popular vote, McCain gets 48.5%. If I had to give Obama another state, it'd be Ohio.

I live in North Carolina and just don't see it happening, not this year. I hope I'm wrong and will be happy to eat my hat, too. I just think that the tightening will continue through the weekend and that we will end up with another fairly close election. And we'll be left wondering why despite everything, McCain came so close.

Again, here's hoping I'm wrong.

Iggy, yes, talkback is down to only one troll, jacob, and as trolls go he is decidedly unsatisfactory as his only argument is either copy and pasting, or writing something incomprehensible himself. At least eos, pccostello, etc. had something to say.

Meanwhile,

-- Gallup has Obama's lead down 3 points both in its expanded likely voter model (from 10% to 7%) and its traditional model (from 5% to a perilous 2%);

-- Rasmussen has Obama's lead down 3 points in two days, from 8% to 5%;

-- Research 2000 has Obama's lead down 4 points in two days, from 11% to 7%;

-- Zogby has Obama's lead down a point today to just 4%, after it already fell from 10% to 5% the day before yesterday.

Even should the IBD and WaPo polls hold steady tonight, Obama's average lead in the daily tracking polls will have fallen from 8.3% three days ago to 5.9% tonight.

Like the others said, no time for premature celebration...

Mcorey.geo, I dunno - call me a pessimist, but both Florida and North Carolina have been trending to McCain the past week or so, Florida rather notably so.

Right now I'm guessing that Obama will get 311-325 Electoral votes, and that's with a week to go still.  

Don't let the troll king upset you Black. I stopped reading that racist, adolescent, sad, lonely, cry-for-help long ago.

Just skip the posts, it'll go away, eventually.

Eos took his last McCain campaign cheque and hit the road.

I'm under no illusions - Mao will let me down but my God they look stupid and petty now, don't they?

blackton,

Whatever happened to tep.  he certainly wasn't a troll, just the resident TNR contrarian.  He and Chan have been awfully quiet lately, though Chan has popped up occasionally.  The true trolls (Eos, dcshugu, and jacobt) are easy to spot; it's the regulars that disappear that leave me scratching my head.

With all due respect to Judis , I'm not popping anything just yet, except maybe some sleeping pills

Tep, I think, has cashed in his chips on the campaign blogs.  I think he felt further contribution on his part would yield diminishing returns.

Tep has a streak of real brilliance -- he could pull information, which was obviously genuine (and not just googled), on the weirdest stuff out of his back pocket and deploy it to great effect.  But what drove me insane was the quick-change-artist style he had when he leaped from absolutely crucial issue to absolutely crucial issue with apparently no memory of what the previous, absolutely crucial, issue had been.

He reminded me of something from Orwell's "Nineteen Eighty-Four" when the Party suddenly decides Oceania is now at war with Eastasia and therefore Oceania has *always* been at war with Eastasia and any evidence to the contrary is fraudulent and treasonous.

On the undecideds question -- at this stage I'm thinking that "liar" is a good alternative for "undecided," as I don't really believe that anyone has any doubts now.  If the 8% spring for McCain it's because they've decided to, no matter what they say in public to pollsters.  To that extent, Obama could usefully push back and keep things from getting too routine (something that helps McCain):  he needs to fire off a few shots that bring back the feelings arising from the debates -- that he basically has a clue and McCain doesn't.

I personally plan to do no celebrating until Obama has theoretically been inaugurated for a couple of days.  The current Repug party will stop at nothing, I believe, to keep Obama out of office, so no celebrating until he's in.

On The Trail And Off Their Rockers: What Does Covering A Two-Year Campaign Do To The Soul Of A Journalist

I refuse to think about it.  Every time they ask McCain about Palin's qualifications in joint interviews, McCain beams proudly.  I expect him to turn to her and say, "Heck of a job Pali!"  I don't think I could stand another four years of "Heck of a job Brownie" and "Mission Accomplished," and I have seen nothing that suggests that won't be the case if McCain won (Socialist, Terrorist, promoting child molesting, etc.).

Noam Scheiber is trying to displace me as the office grinch, and in this case I’m going to let him. Still

Too bad polls don't count.  I want for this to end NOW!

I can't and don't believe all the undecideds are going to go for McPain & Pain. No champagne yet (bourbon, anyway, please), but Obama will pull about 52% and net 335 or so electoral votes.

By the way, the bourbon is also a much better way to fall asleep than a taking a  sleeping pill.

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