Today's Polls: A Better Day for McCain

24.10.2008

This was something of a partly cloudy day for both candidates. The national polls generally contained reasonable news for Barack Obama, who advanced in four tracking polls to McCain's three (Rasmussen was flat). In addition, Obama pulled strong numbers from the weekly editions of the GQR/Democracy Corps and Economist/YouGov polls.

On the other hand, this set of state polling contains some comforting nuggets for John McCain:

Strategic Vision has McCain narrowly ahead in both Florida and Ohio, and gaining ground in Pennslyvania. Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, and indeed has had a 2-3 point Republican lean this cycle, but nevertheless, these represent significant improvements for McCain in all three states from Strategic Vision's last set of polling. Rasmussen, meanwhile, has him narrowly ahead in North Carolina -- actually the first North Carolina poll that he's led in some time -- and closing his difference with Obama in New Hampshire, where his taxation message may be selling well.

Still, not all the news is good for McCain. Insider Advantage gives Barack Obama a large lead in Ohio (though note the survey's small sample size), and perhaps more interestingly, a small lead in Georgia. There's actually been quite a bit of polling in Georgia, and the consensus is certainly not that Obama is ahead; nevertheless, with a large proportion of new voters, it may be a difficult state to poll, and as Obama continues to bank votes in the state's early voting period, it will be interesting to see how those numbers move. Michigan, meanwhile, where EPIC/MRA has Obama 14 points ahead, now looks completely out of reach for McCain.

On balance, we see this election as being very flat, but that is incrementally better news for McCain than yesterday's horrible polling day, when he looked to be ceding further ground to Obama. McCain's position has improved very slightly: we now give him a 5.1% chance of winning the election, up from 3.7% yesterday.

--Nate Silver

Posted: Friday, October 24, 2008 7:10 PM with 11 comment(s)

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maxblum13 said:

why do you weight the insider ohio poll with only 408 respondents so strongly? that's a ridiculously low n.

October 24, 2008 7:36 PM

dylanposer said:

PLEASE keep updates on Georgia. I see something happening there.

October 24, 2008 8:05 PM

RJSampson said:

I'd like to second that dylan. Georgia's overall demographics look more like Virginia that, say NC or KY. Add the large African American population (over half the city) that will likely vote 9/10 for Barack, and I see a real possibility there.

I wouldn't put money on it, but it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

October 24, 2008 11:42 PM

I feel like no state better represents a negotiation of Coastal and Rural sensibilities. What is going on with the senatorial race? Chambliss keeps taking the polls by 2 pts (realclearpolitics.com). If this is a Democrat-leaning race, why is Obama polling *more* points behind McCain than Martin is to Chambliss? What industries in GA might be helping McCain stay several points ahead of Obama there, if he does at all?

And ye, RJ, I agree: Gerogia is a large, iconically Southern state. It probably does move at a more culturally similar speed to VA than does NC. And, let's not forget, Atlanta is a huge metropolis, and where there are huge metropoli, there are upper-middle and middle class home forclosures.

October 25, 2008 4:09 AM

mcorey.geo said:

Virginia v. Georgia: On the one hand, Atlanta doesn't have suburbs amenable to liberalism the way Washington, DC, has. On the other hand, the sheer number of urban blacks in Atlanta dwarfs Richmond and Hampton Roads combined. The x-factor (and this will be true in North Carolina as well) is Latino migration and citizenship. The massive influx of Hispanics and Asians during the 1990s explains the *rapidity* of Virginia's tip from GOP to Democratic.

October 25, 2008 8:35 AM

aeromonas said:

dylan, I'm a Virginia native who has lived in North Carolina for a total of eight years. I don't know Georgia nearly as well as the first two, but I have visited the state on more than one occasion and have a good friend who is a product of the Buckhead elite. I have to say, it seems to me that Georgia and North Carolina track much more closely with each other than either does with Virginia. Charlotte = Atlanta, Chapel Hill = Athens, and the rural remainder falls fairly well in line. Virginia, on the other hand, has the DC suburbs which are not culturally "Southern" at all. Virginia also has Hampton Roads which, while retaining more Southernness than NoVa, has a couple hundred thousand military migrants from all over the country, many of whom stay on after they retire, and in many respects seems more like some gritty, semi-industrial port city in Southern California like Long Beach/San Pedro than anyplace in the South.

October 25, 2008 9:19 AM

From the US Census Bureau

Georgia black population (%): 29.9

Virginia black population (%): 19.9

October 25, 2008 9:24 AM

michael said:

It isn't possible to know the percentage of the vote already in the bag nor can we anticipate the turnout. But I think the votes cast (early) means the polls or any shifting in the final week will have less predictive value this year. I also wonder how the early voting will effect the way data from exit polls is used. I can't believe that a sample of people leaving polls on the 4th will have the same accuracy compared to previous years. I suppose I'm going to be even more suspect of any data or forecasts until we hear the final results.

This is probably less good for McCain because of Obama's seemingly strong position in the final weeks along with the Obama Team's better ground effort.

But it would any shifts in state polls must be balanced against the early voting-absentee ballots. And most curious will be how accurate exit polls are on the 4th. Since they can't be anticipating that people leaving the polls will reflect the total vote, we might as well take a break from guessing for the week as hope is all we have...

October 25, 2008 9:45 AM

s4200 said:

I am looking at the AOL straw poll. McCain is leading in 44 out the 50 states.

200k+ people voted.

news.aol.com/.../straw-poll

October 25, 2008 11:28 AM

AOL is still a company?

October 25, 2008 12:33 PM

It's interesting to look at intrade's numbers. Obama futures are now priced at 86.7 (McCain 13.5). These are the highest numbers Obama has commanded all year, but they're still about ten points off Nate Silvers's suggested likelihood of an Obama victory. I think this reflects the limits of predictions markets; there are too many small bettors who'd rather leave their money in waiting for a miracle than sell and recoup 20c on the dollar.

October 25, 2008 3:39 PM