Guess the Next Obamacon

24.10.2008

Today brought the news that former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld (and Mitt Romney booster in the '08 GOP primaries) is endorsing Obama. He joins Colin Powell, Arne Carlson, Ken Adelman, and Scott McClellan in defecting from the GOP to Obama.

So who's next? I can't imagine an actual Republican office holder--even one in danger of getting swept away by a blue wave, like Gordon Smith in Oregon--will take the plunge (although Smith, of course, has stopped just short of endorsing Obama).

Turning to the formers, the has-beens, and (in McClellan's case) the never-wases, I was thinking Michael Brown might be a good candidate. But, as I see from his blog (yes, Brownie has a blog), he was disappointed that Colin Powell endorsed at all, so I'm guessing Brown will keep his powder dry. Tom Kean--sort of Bill Weld's alter ego--seems pretty squarely in McCain's corner. But I'd keep an eye on George Pataki, who endorsed McCain in February but seems to have been AWOL of late.

So that's my best guess: Pataki. Put your best guesses in TalkBack.

Update: Damn, I should have guessed Charles Fried!

--Jason Zengerle

Posted: Friday, October 24, 2008 12:34 PM with 12 comment(s)

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ecolumbu said:

Don't forget former Reagan DOJ official Doug Kmiec!

October 24, 2008 12:59 PM

blackton said:

George Herbert Walker Bush, because of the way McCain has been trashing his son lately.

Or how about Nancy Reagan who hates McCain for walking out on her friend, McCain's first wife.

Anyway, I bet they are voting for Obama, if not saying it.

My guess is Brent Scowcroft.

October 24, 2008 1:07 PM

stgla said:

Ahnold? The governator does NOT like to "Drill, baby, drill", probably no love for Palin in his household.

October 24, 2008 1:30 PM

arsonplus said:

I'm with Blackton. It's either going to be Scowcroft, Luger or John Warner.

October 24, 2008 1:32 PM

marcellusw101 said:

Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. He's never been an extreme supply-sider anyway, and made it pretty clear that he was disturbed about what W. was doing to the deficit. He could use a public comeback - no better way to do that than to make a newsworthy endorsement: "Former Bush Treasury Head Endorses Obama. Says Bush: 'Who?'"

October 24, 2008 1:37 PM

cspencef said:

I'll second marcellusw101.

October 24, 2008 1:50 PM

benjamin81 said:

Elizabeth Cheney. I just have a feeling that she isn't going to want to pull the lever to put culture-warrior Sarah Palin a heartbeat away. (Not that it stopped her from voting for Iraq-warrior Dick Cheney, but maybe it'll be different without the blood relation.)

October 24, 2008 2:06 PM

rozenson said:

Christie Todd Whitman? Anyone remember her?

October 24, 2008 2:19 PM

Geoff G said:

Alan Greenspan? "Until a few days ago, I was an Objectivist. Now, I'm a Democrat. I've taken my copy of Atlas Shrugged to the used bookstore, and I plan to spend the rest of my life absorbing Dreams from My Father."

October 24, 2008 2:27 PM

JosephCuomo said:

Mike Bloomberg (and not just for the obvious reasons, but also to grovel before the NYC electorate in the wake of the unexpectedly unpopular, Bloomberg-backed, City Council resolution to end term limits).

October 24, 2008 2:32 PM

psantillana said:

I don't think it will be Arnold or Bloomberg. I think it will be more people like Fried, the eggheads, who are doing a lot of handwringing right now. Not politicians so much, unless they are retired.

So, yes to Whitman and Paul O'Neill, but also members of the Volokh Conspiracy, I think some of which already have, like Drezner.

October 24, 2008 4:08 PM

The Plank said:

When I asked people to guess the next Obamacon , I remember thinking one of the more plausible picks

October 31, 2008 2:07 PM