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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
23.10.2008
Today's Polls: The End May Be Near

This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.

The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama.



We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.

Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.

To find good news for McCain, you have to go South -- to the deep South -- where new polling in Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana suggests that those states have yet to become competitive.

As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

--Nate Silver 

Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008 9:07 PM with 13 comment(s)

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fougasseu said:

Americans believe in Americans. As the momentum grows, independents will take notice, and they will trust in the wisdom of their countrymen. If that's too patriotic for you, it's called the wisdom of crowds. At some point, the wisdom of the group makes something positive happen. (Or terribly wrong (Hitler). That's another matter.)

In these times, when the Republicans have successfully raped and pillaged our country, the wisdom of the crowd is going to prevail.

October 23, 2008 9:31 PM

mkayser0 said:

Wow. That is a sh***y day of polls for John McCain.

It's strange, since FL and OH seemed to be going back towards McCain a bit in the last few days.

October 23, 2008 9:34 PM

CharlesFosterKane said:

Along with all those endorsements...it's remarkably like rats fleeing a sinking ship.

I feel kind of sorry for McCain, betrayed on all sides. Democrats hate him, Republicans hate him, he managed to simultaneously lose the respect of swing voters and the base. And even Palin is beginning to fly solo; she seems to have no deference or lingering admiration for the guy who single-handedly placed her on the national stage. I thought respect for your elders was a conservative virtue, but I guess Palin's not on board for that one.

October 23, 2008 9:43 PM

joelandersson said:

As per the "wisdom of the crowds" idea, I find it interesting that in spite of Obama's relative success 40% of the American people still votes Republican. This basically mean that there is a considerable number of American that regardless of how much the GOP elects rape the country they are still going to stick by the party.

This leads me to wonder: What's the point of democracy if ones vote is simply knee-jerk and completely void of reflection whether your party deserves your vote or not?  Granted, some people do reflect and that is shown in the swing towards the democrats over the past few years since the GOP fiasco on all front became apparent. But this is still only a small percentage. The vast majority does not change its vote.

- Joel

October 23, 2008 10:18 PM

icarusr said:

"I feel kind of sorry for McCain, betrayed on all sides."

Don't.  His new Robocalls accuse Obama of being a terrorist sympathizer.  Recorded by Tom Ridge.  No one betrayed McCain but himself and his aweful character.

October 23, 2008 10:30 PM

3mjesus said:

Montana, North Dakota, and even Nebraska CD1 & CD 2 could all go blue.

Make it happen.  Go vote.

October 23, 2008 11:10 PM

Wasatcher said:

I earlier compared McCain to the guilt-tortured Macbeth. Now he's looking more like the sociopathic Richard III; "A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse that can make some dirt stick to the skinny guy!"

October 23, 2008 11:51 PM

Rhubarbs said:

I feel kind of sorry for Bob Dole, a reasonably honorable man who just wasn't up to the challenge of unseating a popular president.

I feel no sorrow at all for John McCain. For one thing, he's shown over the course of the primaries and the general election that he is a man with little honor and no shame, a man willing to look straight into a camera and lie to voters about a member of his own party seated next to him, to the point of calling that man a traitor to his country. But on the specific point of McCain being "betrayed on all sides," well, what the hell did McCain think being a "maverick" was supposed to be all about? If you make a habit of walking out on your comrades to go do you own thing, you can't very well whine that they haven't all flocked to your side in your hour of need.

McCain is getting back exactly as much loyalty and respect from his own party as he has shown to his own party over the years. If he were winning, they'd all be with him, just as McCain stands by other Republicans when they're not a liability to him. I mean, really, this is a man who had to be shanghaied into nominating a member of his own party for vice president.

October 24, 2008 12:15 AM

Crock1701 said:

Joe, that's not all that surprising.  I mean, look at the big non third party blowouts:

1932: FDR: 57.4% Hoover 39.7%

1936: Roosevelt 60.8% Landon 36.5%

1964: LBJ 61.1% Goldwater 38.5%

1972: Nixon 60.7% McGovern 37.5%

1984: Reagan 58.8% Mondale 40.6%

In almost any election, 40% or a little less will stand by their man.  I mean, Hoover got that much in 1932.  Hoover!?!?1  Goldwater, he of wanting to Nuke Vietnam, and McGovern, of "Acid, Abortion, and Amnesty" each got 37-38%, a little under 40.  Elections in the US are battles for the middle 20.  It's like baseball: Every team's going to win 54 games.  Every team's going to lose 54 games.  It's what you do with the other 54 that counts.  

October 24, 2008 1:55 AM

tomeg said:

I feel a little uneasy with all this apparent good news. Fat lady syndrome maybe, and maybe also the cliché, "a week is a very long time in politics."

One of the odder phenomena is that Bush the Outgoing is so disengaged from the campaign and we haven't (yet) seen an October surprise. Have the Repubs exhausted themselves or are they so pissed at McCain they can't even get it up to save their own skins. What an eight years it has been, to say the very least.

October 24, 2008 2:35 AM

CharlesFosterKane said:

Don't get me wrong; the fact that much of this is his own fault is what makes him ultimately such a tragic (and slightly pathetic) figure. His sins are largely those of admission, not exerting (or attempting to exert) control over the wings of his party that he once referred to as the "agents of intolerance." I don't think it destroys his legacy if he can get back to doing what he did best in the Senate, but it certainly damaged it.

"A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse..."

Exactly.

October 24, 2008 7:23 AM

michael said:

It is too early to run onto the field and celebrate a victory but I doubt if many fans of the McCain team will regret leaving the stands so they can beat the traffic. I've been using the line below but Fitzgerald has a phrase that is more appropriate for me: "I'm a romantic; a sentimental person thinks things will last, a romantic person hopes against hope that they won't." And it is a sad irony that Barack is a contradiction today as he visits his grandmother. I can't imagine a more desolate flight back to the campaign as he balances what he won't take into the future with the hope his grandmother instilled in him.

And it isn't too late for McCain to be remembered for how he finished his campaign. If he is everything he claims, we should see a person who wishes to win or lose with dignity and integrity. But the final week can't resemble the past few months. It's up to him to refuse Fitzgerald's epitaph.

"Show me a hero and I'll write you a tragedy." <|> F. Scott Fitzgerald

October 24, 2008 9:28 AM

The Plank said:

Not a good week for Republicans, beginning with Colin Powell&#39;s moving endorsement of Obama (although

October 24, 2008 6:54 PM