I grew up in the Lehigh Valley, Charlie Dent, a Republican is the Rep., before that was Pat Toomey, he of the Club for Growth fame, the Allentown Morning Call has been showing Obama up by over 10 for a while now.

Has McCain ever even looked at the population distribution? He is campaigning in places I, who grew up in Pa., have never even heard of. I hope the McCain campaign spends millions in Pa. and spends the last few days there.

I sent in my absentee ballot for Pa. As far as I know, Obama is winning with 100% of the vote (how is that for optimistic)

This is impressive. Add to it Joe Klein's piece today about Obama putting Petraeus on notice in Iraq, and one senses that the motto for America after Jan. 20 may be "Try To Keep Up, People."

Maybe Rick's assessment is right.  Even so, now isn't the time for complacency.

www.politico.com/.../14830.html

Well, one can be an optimistic observer without being complacent.  I did not find the politico piece terribly persuasive -- a lot of vague generalities about the state usually being close.  If the polls are wrong, I think we need a persuasive theory explaining why they're wrong.  For example, did Obama do significantly worse than predicted during the primary, suggesting a possible Bradley effect?  I don't recall that he did.  Have polls typically gotten Pennsylvania wrong, as far as predicting a bigger margin for the winner than he/she received, suggesting that pollsters are getting the state wrong somehow?  I'm not aware of that.  Do the polls in Pennsylvania tighten toward the end of a race more than in other states?

The leaked "internal poll" also struck me as suspicious, given that it's obviously to Obama's advantage for everyone to believe that Pennsylvania is close.

The politico article talks all about polling, but look at the polling in 2004:  www.realclearpolitics.com/.../pa_polls.html  The RCP average was Kerry by 0.9%.  The polls were basically spot on.  Here, every poll in PA has Obama up 10-13 points.  I can't imagine that they are all fundamentally off.  No time for complacency, but unless something major happens, Obama isn't just going to win PA, he is going to win it easily.

I watched a great interview with Obama which focused on his Grandmother.  

A brief, but telling moment when I saw a comforting flash of steel in Mr Cool's eyes.  The interviewer asked (a dumb question): "It's the day after the election.  Do you see yourself as the winner?"

Obama: "Of course. I wouldn't have run if I didn't know I could win."

You're right Mr Yard - he's putting people on notice. He's large and in charge.

I stand my my multi word comment to the Politico piece. It does not explain why PA is a "path to" victory. That's the premise and Johnny needs more than 21 votes. I think there are six or eight state on his path, the clock is ticking and people are voting now.

Oh, the Klein piece is a great read but I didn't realize the two Senators were in the room for the Petraeus meeting. I agree with williamyard and with a win I think Barack won't be waiting until 1-20 exert influence. The meeting Bush called for (Nov 20th) seems to be a HELP ME! call.

According to TPM, McCain is actually REDUCING his ad buys in PA. So, unless he's going strictly with robo-calls, its a strange way to up the ante. Or maybe Obama's just bought up all of the available time. Either way, same likely result.

So then is Rendell in on the head fake, or does he sincerely believe it's gonna be close?

the best explanation I have found so far is this comment, posted here:

narcosphere.narconews.com/.../panic-room-whats-mccains-pennsylvania-gambit

PA has no early voting

---------------------------

I wonder if they picked PA to focus on because it has no early voting and hence there is

more chance to change the result by attacks and smears.  Also, I think the GOP is trying

voter suppresion in PA, didn't the PA GOP  file a lawsuit about the ACORN stuff?  Again,

if everyone votes on one day, it's easier to suppress turnout.   Finally, if they can

just make it close they can challenge the results and try to create chaos.   I'm hoping

that it's not close at all in PA or Obama doesn't need PA to reach 270 (or both would be

even better).

Per Carville, Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.  Republicans almost always carry the latter, Democrats the former.  In order to carry the state, McCain would have to make some serious inroads in the suburbs.  But he's mostly campaigning out in the boonies where they already support him.    

He and Palin have actually been in the Philly burbs quite a bit over the past couple of weeks.

Maybe McCain is going to the boonies just to hear people applaud him? God knows, he's got trouble finding it anywhere else. Perhaps this last couple of weeks is just the McCain Self-Esteem Tour.

I live in a near suburb of Philadelphia and today I received a pledge request from John McCain, no Sarah Palin on the envelope or mentioned in the text of the 4 page enclosed letter.  It is a real shame they enclosed a no postage required envelope for my "contribution", since instead of a check there will be a note voicing my disgust. It is actually from the RNC, who, I supposed needs more money to buy the bimbo more clothes before election day.  Well as Jon Stewart on the Daily Show says "What the Pfuck?"  (Pronounced pa-fuck).  My answer is "I'm from Philly and I dare you to say I'm not a Real American"

Every good strategist knows that there are two essentially two interconnected paths to victory in war: ensuring superior forces and tactics on your side; and inducing errors in your enemy's.  Obama's campaign has been near flawless since February 2007.  This is not to say that he has not made errors; rather, with a winning strategy in place, he has been quick to adapt to local and changing circumstances, has exploited his own strengths well and has been quick to take advantage of the errors of his opponents, and sometimes force them into one.  Not only would it not surprise me to learn that Obama's campaign is involved in a number of tactical feints to draw McCain into its net, in fact, based on what I have seen of the campaign, I'd say that it would imperative for them to do so.

Remember the "say it to my face" dare?  McCain took the bait - so fucking predictable it's painful - and the result was a disaster.  Now he seems to be taking the bait again.

Character is destiny; when you are a petulant fratboy running with a Moosemamma at your side and advised by an asshole and a cretin, what else can one expect?  And why should Obama NOT take advantage of this?