I think the chief importance of the Powell endorsement is that it provides a well-night unanswerable comeback to the various anti-Obama smears.  Simple denials from the Obama camp don't cut it with a lot of people.  But when a guy as widely respected as Powell, a Republican whose patriotism and probity is not open to question, who has had ample opportunity to vet both candidates, and who basically likes both of them, gives his stamp of approval to Obama, it makes it much more difficult for the Obama-as-terrorist meme to get anywhere outside the wingnut subculture in which it flourishes.  To counter this, you need to somehow make Powell out to be either a fool or a traitor; and that dog just won't hunt.

Colin Powell's endorsement, in isolation, might not have had much impact on the race.

But Powell's endorsement, as well as his blistering attack of the McCain campaign, comes in the wake of Christopher Buckley's endorsement (for which he was fired from National Review, which, in turn, made Buckley's endorsement all the more visible, and all the more resonant).

Powell's endorsement also comes only two days after Peggy Noonan wrote this:

"In the end the Palin candidacy is a symptom and expression of a new vulgarization in American politics. It's no good, not for conservatism and not for the country. And yes, it is a mark against John McCain, against his judgment and idealism."

And this:

"I gather this week from conservative publications that those whose thoughts lead them to criticism in this area are to be shunned, and accused of the lowest motives. In one now-famous case, Christopher Buckley was shooed from the great magazine his father invented. In all this, the conservative intelligentsia are doing what they have done for five years. They bitterly attacked those who came to stand against the Bush administration. This was destructive. If they had stood for conservative principle and the full expression of views, instead of attempting to silence those who opposed mere party, their movement, and the party, would be in a better, and healthier, position.

"At any rate, come and get me, copper."

And Powell's endorsement also comes only about ten days after David Brooks said this:

"[Sarah Palin] represents a fatal cancer to the Republican party. When I first started in journalism, I worked at the National Review for Bill Buckley. And Buckley famously said he'd rather be ruled by the first 2,000 names in the Boston phone book than by the Harvard faculty. But he didn't think those were the only two options. He thought it was important to have people on the conservative side who celebrated ideas, who celebrated learning. . . . But there has been a counter, more populist tradition, which is not only to scorn liberal ideas but to scorn ideas entirely. And I'm afraid that Sarah Palin has those prejudices. I think President Bush has those prejudices."

All of which is to say, the attacks on McCain from the likes of Powell, Buckley, Noonan, and Brooks have begun to establish a sense in this race that even Republicans themselves have had enough of the kind of hateful lies that his campaign has been spewing, even Republicans themselves have had enough of Sarah Palin, even Republicans themselves see a potential McCain presidency as virtually indistinguishable from the disastrous Bush presidency, even Republicans themselves have begun to see the handwriting on the wall.

And this can't be good for the GOP nominee.

Colin Powell's endorsement, in isolation, might not have had much impact on the race.

But Powell's endorsement, as well as his blistering attack of the McCain campaign, comes in the wake of Christopher Buckley's endorsement (for which he was fired from National Review, which, in turn, made Buckley's endorsement all the more visible, and all the more resonant).

Powell's endorsement also comes only two days after Peggy Noonan wrote this:

"In the end the Palin candidacy is a symptom and expression of a new vulgarization in American politics. It's no good, not for conservatism and not for the country. And yes, it is a mark against John McCain, against his judgment and idealism."

And this:

"I gather this week from conservative publications that those whose thoughts lead them to criticism in this area are to be shunned, and accused of the lowest motives. In one now-famous case, Christopher Buckley was shooed from the great magazine his father invented. In all this, the conservative intelligentsia are doing what they have done for five years. They bitterly attacked those who came to stand against the Bush administration. This was destructive. If they had stood for conservative principle and the full expression of views, instead of attempting to silence those who opposed mere party, their movement, and the party, would be in a better, and healthier, position.

"At any rate, come and get me, copper."

And Powell's endorsement also comes only about ten days after David Brooks said this:

"[Sarah Palin] represents a fatal cancer to the Republican party. When I first started in journalism, I worked at the National Review for Bill Buckley. And Buckley famously said he'd rather be ruled by the first 2,000 names in the Boston phone book than by the Harvard faculty. But he didn't think those were the only two options. He thought it was important to have people on the conservative side who celebrated ideas, who celebrated learning. . . . But there has been a counter, more populist tradition, which is not only to scorn liberal ideas but to scorn ideas entirely. And I'm afraid that Sarah Palin has those prejudices. I think President Bush has those prejudices."

All of which is to say, the attacks on McCain from the likes of Powell, Buckley, Noonan, and Brooks have begun to establish a sense in this race that even Republicans themselves have had enough of the kind of hateful lies that the McCain campaign has been spewing, even Republicans themselves have had enough of Sarah Palin, even Republicans themselves see a potential McCain presidency as virtually indistinguishable from the disastrous Bush presidency, even Republicans themselves have begun to see the handwriting on the wall.

And this can't be good for the GOP nominee.

JosephCuomo, nicely put, although I wonder how much the views of these conservatives will trickle down (as it were).

I also share with Nate a skepticism of the power of endorsements generally. And it's worth noting that the Powell endorsement is no longer on the front page of CNN, not even along the side. Talk about a short news cycle!

epicciuto-

Thanks for the kind words (and sorry for the unintentional double-posting).

As for whether or not the views of these conservatives will trickle down, as you put it, I think what has already begun to happen is that pundits on the chat shows have noticed these endorsements, these attacks, and a sense of inevitablity has already begun to creep into their commentary.

It must be pointed out just how unusual it is for Republicans--highly visible Republicans, like Powell, Buckely, Noonan, and Brooks, not to mention, David Gergen (who has also chastised McCain and Palin)--it must be pointed out how extraordinary it is for Republicans to attack, or, in some cases, abandon, their own presidential nominee, especially this close to the general election.

Think for a minute, and try to recall any highly visible Republican or Democrat abandoning or attacking their own party's nominee only weeks before the election. In my memory, it's extremely rare. And here we have not just one major GOP figure attacking McCain and Palin, but numerous such figures going for the campaign's throat.

This fact alone is rather shocking. And its impact in these final days of the race should not be underestimated.

Someone must have mentioned this?

zero–sum: of, relating to, or being a situation (as a game or relationship) in which a gain for one side entails a corresponding loss for the other side

Yes, Powell could have kept quiet and the assumption (conclusion) would have been approval for McCain-Palin. Even worse, he could have voice approval for all he ripped to shreds in his nod to Barack. However useful he is to Obama? McCain-Palin are hurt because they are behind, both have high negatives and shrinking positives and they can't afford to not grasp any good that is available. Only was passing grade was available and McCain-Palin didn't get it from Colin Powell.

I can't see this as anything but devastating to the McCain campaign.

The only qualifier to even add would be that decent people were thinking it already, and Powell just said out loud what they already felt.

But the fact that this particular guy said it, and said it so incredibly well [particularly the part about anti-Muslim sentiment] serves the very important function of just putting it out there so clearly and publicly that it forces people to really pick a side, to either put down their pitchforks in shame, or to double down - and reveal themselves to their neighbors. I think Rush Limbaugh just did the latter. This whole thing is fascinating.

Not to be pedantic, but don't you mean the defense and military communities of *southern* Virginia, specifically Hampton Roads?  

Hampton Roads is home to Norfolk Naval Base, Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Portsmouth Naval Hospital, Little Creek Amphibious Base, Oceana Naval Air Station, Fort Monroe (soon to be closed), Fort Eustice, Langley Air Force Base, Langely NASA Research Center (which is very defense focussed), Camp Peary (an Army post and the CIA's covert ops training center), Yorktown Naval Weapons Station, and Newport News Shipbuilding and Dry Dock Company which, in addition to being the place where they design, build and service all of the Navy's aircraft carriers and strategic missile subs is Virginia's largest private employer.

Who let an adult into this party? Here we are tossing pots and pans, throwing pasta against the wall, having a real Animal House of a campaign, and Colin Powell shows up.

Wise, eloquent, calm, even-handed (Gee, who does he remind you of?), he takes the Republican Party to the woodshed. I was blown away.

And I  was struck by his passion, particularly when answering questions after "Meet The Press", when he talked to reporters. He clearly is fed up with what he's been hearing, not from McCain, but from the Republican Party.

And I thought it was fantastic when he called out that right wing fruitcake from Minnesota, Michele Bachmann, who wants to investigate anti-Americanism in Congress.

I have a relative, a Republican, who greatly admires Powell, but he couldn't bring himself to vote for a Democrat. I talked with him this afternoon. He's now voting for Obama. He lives in Ohio.

The Powell endorsement is significant in a couple of respects. One. the dynamic fougasseu alludes to above. I think there are a lot of reasonable Republicans who are fed up with where the country has gone but who are having a hard time getting over that hump of voting for a Dem. Powell, because he's been a loyal Republican, a man of unquestioned patriotism, and aa leader in foreign affairs, gives these folks the permission to cross over. They can say to themselves, if this guy is doing it then I can too, and feel good about it. It won't do anything with the wingnuts but may help bring over some undecideds.

The other thing that was so striking about Powell's endorsement is (what psantillo alluded to). When he  said that the REAL right answer to the Obama is a Musim accusation is "so what if he were?"  Obama himself won't go there, but Powell was willing to call anti-Muslim bigotry what it is. And for that, he earned my highest praise and respect.

I still view the endorsement as more of a trailing indicator than a leading indicator, but you guys have convinced me that it was more important than I thought before today. And Powell's statement itself was very impressive. I lost a lot of respect for him with his conduct in the run-up to Iraq (I can believe he was lied to, but the "evidence" he presented to the UN was self-evidently flimsy, so I don't let him off the hook).

But today he was impressive -- both logical and passionate, conveying both depth of thought and depth of feeling. Watching his description of the photo of Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan's mother was moving, even though I had seen it and read about it earlier in the day. It was a great reminder of what America's ideals and values are supposed to be, and a blunt criticism of how the Republican party has violated them. He let McCain off easily, though, as McCain's campaign does not have clean hands at all when it comes to the behavior of some Republicans that he condemned.

My feeling is that the undecided voters still left fall mainly into three groups: the completely ignorant, moderate conservatives who are struggling with the idea of voting for a Democrat, and Democrats who are struggling with the idea of voting for a black man. I Powell helps a few in the latter two groups vote for Obama more than McCain, that could provide a significant extra cushion in the race.

(My guess is that conservative Democrats have mostly made up their minds one way or another, given the small remaining undecideds.)

The psychological power of the Powell endorsement is huge, The main thing working against Obama at this point is the sense of doubt and uneasiness about him. "Gee, I don't really like the angry old guy and Palin's loopy, but can the skinny guy handle it?" Nobody in America could have been more reassuring than the man who won the only war we've won in Iraq, the man who silently absorbed the humiliation of the Rumsfeld regime out of pure soldierly loyalty to Republicans. The only other person who could have come close is General Petreus, and he can't endorse. The impact may be subtle, and it may take time to work, but a lot of those few people on the fence will say, "Hey, if Collin Powell would take orders from Obama, I'm there." This is a one-two punch that simultaneously validates the young senator and draws energy away from McCain. About all the old guy had left besides the raw rage of Republicans in retrograde is that he was respected among the military officer corps. When Powell says line up behind Barak, I think it will have an impact, though not necessarily something that will show an immediate jump in the polls.

And...you ain't seen nothin' yet department -- don't forget Obama has purchased a half hour of prime-time TV. You think we'll see Obama palling around with Warren Buffet and Colin Powell? The image McCain is spending so much energy creating will not hold any more than his hectoring Obama in debates with "He doesn't understand" when he clearly looked to everybody watching like he understood. It's going to be real hard now to make the case that Obama is the kind of guy who consorts with un-American types.

Powell's nod to Obama strikes me as an object hitting water.  Is there a brief but huge splash and then nothing?  Or is there not much of a splash at the beginning but yet enough impact that a small ripple or wave that you can see carrying in more than one direction?  In battleground states such as NC and VA where there's a substantial military presence, even if Powell's remarks translated into only one-half of a percent shift in voters to Obama, that could very well be the difference in the end.  So in the abstract, Powell's endorsement might not translate to some huge bump of several points in any national polls.  But if just a tiny fraction of voters in two previously red states shift a quarter of a point loss into a razor thin victory securing close to between 20 to 30 electoral votes for Obama, that becomes huge.

The deeper Obama can play in red territory McCain previously never had to worry about defending just two months ago, the better I feel about the blue team's chances on Nov. 4th.  Powell's remarks today certainly can't hurt the odds of that scenario.  It keeps McCain on the defense for another 1 or 2 news cycles when there aren't many left before the clock runs out.  That is just fine with me.

Lots of good comments here.  I would just add that I thought that Powell's endorsement of Obama today was just so powerful it blew me away.  He perfectly encapsulated his rationale for choosing Obama and his chastisement of the McCain campaign was so powerful because he made it so clear that he does have much personal respect for McCain and his rejection of McCain was purely based upon reason and not emotion.  In fact, it seemed like Powell's reason overruled his emotion and that's what made him support Obama.  Very powerful endorsement not coming from base reasons.

Which makes it all the more upsetting what Pat Buchanan said on Hardball about Powell's rationale being solely based on race.  Pat has officially jumped the shark and revealed just how much a racist he is as if some of his past comments were not sufficient.  In light of Powell's calm and reasoned explanation for choosing Obama over McCain, in light of the fact that Powell waited for the eleventh hour to make his endorsement, and in light of all the much more conservative WHITE people mentioned in the above posts (Buckley, Noonan, Brooks, etc.) some of whom have switched to Obama and all of whom have laid out cogent arguments as to why McCain is a flawed Presidential candidate how Pat Buchanan can accuse Powell for choosing Obama solely because of racial solidarity is simply outrageous!  Pat, what's stopping you from accusing Chris Buckley of racial solidarity too, huh?   Oh, right... Buckley's white so he's motivated for rational non-racist reasons but Powell's black so he can't possibly rationally be supporting Obama so it must be based on race.

I don't like throwing the racist card at all.  I hate the politics of victimization with a passion and I know people who know Pat Buchanan well and by all accounts in person he is a very kind and decent man unlike some of the liberal pundits at MSNBC whom I happen agree with completely when it comes to politics but who are complete egomanical jerkwads.  But think about it.  What Pat Buchanan has done by making this allegation is the same as if a black person were to claim that a white person who gives sensible reasons for voting against Obama is a racist.  Could such a white person really be shielding his racism with non-racist reasons?  Sure.  But you don't go claiming people are acting racist based on no evidence other than the fact that since they are white they must be voting against Obama because of race.  You especially don't make such racist claims when a white person is able to expand rationally and logically upon their reasons for not voting for Obama using the same reasons and logic that a black person might use in also choosing not to vote for Obama.  To do so is a very clear example of racism albeit reverse racism in this hypo. This is exactly akin to what Buchanan did today in regards to Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama.  MSNBC should fire Pat Buchanan's racist ass and Rachel Maddow better call Pat to the carpet tomorrow night for this outrageousness.    

Buchanan, Limbaugh, Hannity, O'Reilly et al are all demagogues.

We now have Cincinnatus vs. Cincinnati, a real leader vs. white trash populism, and their mouthpieces, rabble-rousers like Buchanan, hate being held accountable by men like Powell, as McCarthy hated the brave men who stood up to him.

Message to Buchanan, Limbaugh et al:  If Colin Powell endorsed Obama solely due to their shared race, why did he wait so long to do it?  Haven't they both been black all along?

wildboy, I'm guessing that Buchanan, Limbaugh, etc. just found out that Powell is black.