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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
15.10.2008
More Political Wisdom From Bill Kristol

 I realize that at this point it's ridiculous to treat Bill Kristol as anything other than an intellectually dishonest apologist for his pal John McCain. Still, he is a prominent pundit who is presumably still taken seriously by someone somewhere, and so I feel compelled to take issue with his remarks in Mo Dowd's column today. Asked about his increasingly lonely cheerleading of Sarah Palin, Kristol snipped:

Conservative eggheads are my friends, but politically they're a contrarian indicator. If they're down on Palin, things are looking up for her. With all due respect for my fellow eggheads, they are underestimating the importance of a natural political gift or star quality. It matters a lot.

 I see where Kristol is coming from. I've worked with some fantastic liberal eggheads over the years at TNR, and on multiple occasions found myself arguing the personality-vincit-omnia theory of presidential politics with one of my more cerebral, policy-minded colleagues.Of course natural political talent matters enormously. (Does anyone believe Obama would be where he is today if he weren't cooler than cool?) But it is not the only factor voters take into the account--not even the low-information Joe Six-Pack voters whose backsides Palin and Kristol are so noisily smooching in their bizarre culture war. 

Palin is popular with the GOP base because of both her style and her message. She has put her natural political talent in the service of delivering a nasty, brutish, us-vs-them, book-larnin'-is-for-suckers, everything-I-need-to-know-I-learned-in-vacation-bible-school assault on the opposition that suits the scared, desperate, angry mood of her followers. Noam's excellent look at Palin's proud  history of bitterness and petty vengeance toward anyone suspected of looking down on her suggests this is the most perfectly suited message Palin could ever be asked to deliver. She is an authentic, 100 percent natural culture warrior who knows how to stoke grievances in others because she harbors so many herself.

But moving from base-agitator to broadly appealing star will take more than a bushel of resentment. To have a future on the national stage, Palin will need to expand her set of political tools. For instance, she will need to be able to name a magazine or newspaper. (Not necessarily read one, just name one.) She will need to learn to answer tough questions with something other than a whine about "gotcha journalism." And she will need to learn how to duck tough questions with something more than a wink and a smile--if for no other reason than women, who comprise a majority of the electorate, find such quasi-coquettishness vastly less endearing than men. (Yes, Rich "Starbursts" Lowry, I'm thinking of you.)

If Kristol would bother to get his head out of his...McCain strategy emails...for a minute, he'd notice that eggheads aren't the only group with whom Palin is playing badly. The situation has not yet reached the point, as he suggests, that intellectuals' dislike of her means that everyone else adores her. Palin's poll numbers have been on the slide for weeks now and, while she is overwhelmingly seen as "down-to-earth," she is also regarded as about as qualified as my big toe to run the country. There aren't enough intellectuals in this great nation to account for her falling ratings. Clearly, Palin's cutesy culture-war shtick has left even some regular folks cold. 

I have no doubt (well, maybe some doubt) that Palin could grow into a formidable, if still dangerously divisive, national player if she put her mind to it. But my guess is that, the more that blind defenders like Kristol argue that her strength lies in her aggressive Everygalness, the less likely it is that Palin will bother with the hard work necessary to make those changes. Just look at Fred Barnes' recent hilarious defense: "Her handlers were part of the problem....When she choked in the television interviews, they blamed her. Even McCain was miffed to find she wasn't reading newspapers and keeping up on daily events." Yes. How unreasonable to hold Palin accountable for her own failed appearances. Worse still, how dare McCain expect her to keep up with current affairs! Doesn't he recall that she was chosen specifically to look pretty and talk ugly?

I mean, why on earth would Palin bother to learn about foreign policy or the economy when everyone is telling her that her political uniqueness lies in the fact that she has the same uninformed, common-sense world view as Big Larry who runs the soft-serve machine down at the Dairy Queen? Stay simple, Sarah! You rock!

 If Kristol, Barnes, et al really want to see Palin do well, they'd do well to stop feeding her victim-of-elite-snobbery self-image and urge her to acknowledge her existing limitations and at least start figuring out what it is she doesn't know--the "unknown unknowns," to quote a great American. Don't cheer her for being an charismatic know-nothing. Scold her into pursuing the whole package.

Then again, since I don't particularly want Palin to have a political future in the lower 48, forget everything I've just said. Indeed, my advice to the governor is to immediately sign up Kristol to be her chief booster/advisor going forward. Maybe he can do for her career what he's done as unofficial counselor to McCain this year. Fingers crossed!

--Michelle Cottle

Posted: Wednesday, October 15, 2008 3:07 PM with 22 comment(s)

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mcorey.geo said:

Bravo! We seem to have forgotten the original "genius-stroke" of Palin's selection: the notion that Hillary's voters would be stupid enough to switch from Obama to a candidate who forbids abortion in cases of rape and incest. What was McCain thinking??? Here, in a place called Reality, women of every race, every social class, and, increasingly, every *ideological affiliation* find Gov. Palin repulsive. The horny white men who do support her were always the demographic most easily charmed by McCain's own warmed-over martialism. She adds nothing and subtracts a lot.

October 15, 2008 3:34 PM

icarusr said:

The Palin said yesterday that she had nothing to lose in attacking Obama.  That alone means the woman has no political antenna, no self-preservation instict, no judgement, no character.  Anyone defending her is a rank idiot.  And I can't believe you actually referred to a Maureen Dowd article in which Kristol was featured: the incomprehensible in pursuit of the unpalatable.

October 15, 2008 3:39 PM

Wasatcher said:

The (almost only) thing that makes Sara Palin continue to be interesting is that she forces into the open the debate over issues vs. personalities in political races. Drew Weston's "The Political Brain" is a very useful book on the subject. The fact is, we do not elect issues managers, we elect personalities who will have to face issues yet unknown. Comparing "plans" means little -- the plans generally come from advisors anyway. What the people want and need is a personality that will discern what plans are best and bring about a sense of unity that will allow the plans to take effect.  This is one reason Democrats have had a big problem in national elections, they keep winning the arguments and losing the elections. This is a great example of the blind spot in an arrogantly intellectual approach to politics. Democrats tend to run for prime minister while Republicans have always run for Philosopher King. Bill Clinton figured it out. Hillary didn't.

October 15, 2008 3:53 PM

MichLib said:

Why is the idea of a Sarah Palin future in politics even being floated? Palin 2012?? Yeah, right. If McCain loses this election, she will be the scapegoat whether she deserves it or not (she would deserve a lot of it, but there are multiple reasons why McCain might lose). She will be a laughingstock of everyone except the ignorant buffoons of this world like Bill Kristol.

October 15, 2008 3:53 PM

raylward said:

Very good, both Michelle and mcorey.  For me, I am still at a loss as to Palin's appeal.  Yes, she is attractive, but that voice.  Ouch.  I think Michelle captures the extent of her base, mostly evangelicals who only wish to see a fellow believer.  The culture wars have been blazing for years, but I see Palin as more of a religious warrior than a culture warrior.   However, her nastiness offsets the evangelical code.  Compare Mike Huckabee.  He speaks the same code, but without the nastiness. Huckabee is a sincere Christian.  Palin, not so much.  It is only a matter of time before the scales fall from the eyes of her evangelical supporters.  Her political future will not be built on an evangelical base.  Huckabee's will.

October 15, 2008 3:58 PM

CharlesFosterKane said:

Great post.

In response, let me cross-post this from the Stump:

The problem with Palin is that she's obviously malleable and can't be as stupid as she's pretending to be. In other words, the McCain campaign wants her to throw nasty barbs at Obama, be an attack dog, and play up the anti-intellectual themes. I suspect that, with proper coaching, she could have been delivered up as a sensible, moderate (reformist, fought her own party, etc.), plainspoken but polite VP. Instead she got off on the wrong foot with a sarcastic acceptance speech, was withheld from the media, and then appeared obstinate and ignorant in interviews. I was inclined to like her on first impression, until she opened her mouth.

In a way, I'm glad we saw this side of her - otherwise it could've been Bush all over again, running as a reasonable moderate than dropping the mask in office (assuming she ever got hold of the reigns of power). But it was definitely a strategic mistake of the McCain campaign to point her in this direction. I don't think she's a loose cannon, I think she does exactly what they want her to do, and that they felt they could shore up the base with her, while McCain ran for the center. But it made the campaign look schizo and stretched it too thin. She was already red meat for the base by being a solid conservative from a rural state - by overplaying her hand, she alienated the independents McCain will need to win.

October 15, 2008 4:04 PM

WoodyBombay said:

"she was chosen specifically to look pretty and talk ugly"

There's clear, crisp, concise bit of wordsmithing there, Michelle. Good work.

October 15, 2008 4:33 PM

pdx1 said:

Great post, so funny....Big Larry-that's rich

October 15, 2008 4:34 PM

liberal reformer said:

Icarusr: Mo Dowd incomprehensibile? Your true genius is showing through. Ms. Dowd is very transparent. You wish you could write like Mo Dowd.  I am endleslly amused by the little nobodies out here who are constantly making snarky comments about talented writers. The revenge of the wordless, I suppose. I have my problems with Dowd; she too often glides on the surface - of the sartorial and of decor, just for instances. But at her best, she can be incisive, withering and dead on.

October 15, 2008 4:42 PM

JEFF FREY said:

She's not as dumb as she came across in the disastrous interviews, but she's ignorant and shallow, not to mention totally unprepared. I don't think she ever had to face an interview before that would deal with anything beyond the local hot button issues (which she could at least answer with plausible dodges), from an interviewer who was capable of persistently following up. Alaska TV reporters don't graduate to a bigger stage, and all but a few are within a few years of college.

I think she is going to have a hard time shaking the impression that she is a complete idiot and a serial liar. Her statements to even the local media after the Troopergate report have been described as Orwellian, as she blithely asserted that black was white. The bloom is definitely off the rose now, and she's going to have a much tougher time in the next two years as Governor than she had in the first two. Some of the people she has stepped on in her climb up are waiting with knives for her to dangle a bit lower. Combine that with an overall lack of substance, and I'm guessing that this is the peak of her career. But she is insanely ambitious, and if she does not tumble down in disgrace before her term as Governor is up, or get unseated in re-election, I'll bet she will aim for the 2012 nomination.

October 15, 2008 4:42 PM

zw0119 said:

Ms. Cottle, you may just be best damn writer at this magazine of skilled writers.

October 15, 2008 5:10 PM

weisbardaj said:

One must wonder whether Bill Kristol was a major behind-the-scenes proponent of selecting Palin for the VP slot; his overheated praise, purportedly  of her, sounds much more authentically like the the sound of patting his own back. Kristol seems, oddly but understandably, drawn to pretty faces stretched over empty (or wooden) skulls (not sexist--consider Dan Quayle as the precursor to Sarah Paiin). Kristol's preferred role is as puppeteer--at least when not leading the rats fleeing the sinking ship he helped to run aground.

--The Wise Bard

October 15, 2008 5:26 PM

stanmvp48 said:

And what happens to her popularity in Alaska if the price of oil continues to fall?

October 15, 2008 5:29 PM

icarusr said:

Libref: The Dowd woman is withering alright.  And dead on.  Arrival.

"I am endleslly amused by the little nobodies out here who are constantly making snarky comments about talented writers."

You don't know me at all, you don't know what I do, and you don't know who I am; and so the "snarky comment" about "little nobodies" is just plain stupid. A good rule of thumb in life is to speak only from personal knowledge; if you wish to attack me as a person, make sure you know what you are talking about, and if you don't, put the snark in your holster.  Anyway, being a writer for the NYTimes is no evidence of excellence - witness Kristol.  It is possible, you know, to be accomplished and a "somebody" in other walks of life.

Now, if you think the Dowd woman is talented, bully for you; I think she is as well - talented but unreadable and incomprehensible.  The Palin is also talented and equally odious.  McCain is talented - lots of people are "talented" - but it does not make them good or worthy of adulation.

"revenge of the wordless" ... You're trying to channel MoDowd, are you?  Next you're going to accuse me of being a shy wallflower, I suppose.

"You wish you could write like Mo Dowd."

And I wish I could shoot hoops like Kareem Abduljabbar and score like Ronaldo and skin a Moose like the Palin and sing like Pavarotti.  So what?  It is the mark of a third-rate mind to argue that just because one cannot do something as well as someone else, one cannot also comment on a piece or recognise its excellence - or crappiness.  It's like saying Harold Bloom should not criticise Shakespeare's bad plays because he could not write a Hamlet.  To make the argument demonstrate lack of critical faculty.

By the way, I *don't* wish I could write Mo Dowd; I'd be fired from my writing job if I did.

October 15, 2008 5:42 PM

maya90 said:

Palin "star quality"????  what the heck has Kristol being smoking???  (what the heck has the ENTIRE GOP been smoking for last eight years...??  ;)

October 15, 2008 5:48 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

She has a wonderful future as a televangalist - she'd be a zillionare and its suits her obviously limited intellectual speed.  

You can't win with a small percentage of whack a doodles and a reputation as the most hateful idiot ever to grace a Presidential campaign.  She is mercifully doomed and I wish her all the luck as the new Jerry Falwell.

October 15, 2008 6:03 PM

ndmackenzie said:

Sarah Palin's greatest problem is not that she doesn't know the "unknown unknowns" - it is that she doesn't know the "known knowns" either.

October 15, 2008 6:11 PM

woland said:

Way to go icarusr!  I'm with you.  "The Palin?"  I like it!   I'm going to start referring to her as such.

The Palin will never be a viable presidential candidate in either major party.  I agree with Jeff Frey that The Palin is not as dumb as she comes across in interviews, but that does not detract from the fact that she is in fact dumb.  For someone who managed to scheme and con her way into the governor's chair at 44 years of age to be so ignorant of national politics as she has demonstrated herself to be shows beyond a reasonable doubt that she is an intellectual dimwit.  In her sparsely populated home state where she grew up all of her life she was able to float on her charm and good looks but that kinda thing won't fly on a national stage.  McCain was a fool to falling for her candy coated exterior and crap filled interior.

October 15, 2008 7:38 PM

AlanSP said:

On that whole "intellectual" thing, I noticed that several polls recent SurveyUSA polls included a question about whether people consider themselves to be intellectuals.  In the 7 states I could find where they asked this (NJ, GA, PA, WI, CA, and NH) the vast majority of voters, 69-79 percent, said that they consider themselves to be intellectuals (the biggest margin was in GA at 79-16).  Maybe bashing intellectuals isn't such great strategy after all.

October 15, 2008 7:44 PM

AlanSP said:

lib ref seems to have become a caricature of himself since he came back.

He writes,

"You wish you could write like Mo Dowd. I am endleslly amused by the little nobodies out here who are constantly making snarky comments about talented writers. The revenge of the wordless, I suppose."

This comment, aside from being haughty and mean-spirited, has some seriously flawed reasoning behind it.  We criticize people all the time who are better than us at their chosen profession.  Adam Eaton is a better pitcher than I could ever hope to be.  Does that mean I shouldn't point out the fact that he's terrible? Is that the revenge of the non-athletic? Of course not.  Adam Eaton gets paid to pitch, just like the New York Times columnists get paid to write  (actually, more recently, Eaton gets paid to *not* pitch, since the Phillies gave up on him, but you get the point).  The standard to which a professional writer should be held is a good deal higher than Talkback commenters (and there are a number of excellent writers around here).

Also, that is the first time I've heard anybody describe ick as "wordless."

October 15, 2008 8:15 PM

AlanSP said:

Missed ick's second comment where he said largely the same things I just said.

October 15, 2008 8:18 PM

Lundell said:

I think a person can be both charismatic and reflective.  I agree with some that--on the surface and surface alone (because once America gets a whiff of some of her nuttier views, it will sour on her)--Palin can "get across" with certain segments of the voters.  I don't think she will ever be able to translate that into broader appeal because she simply isn't reflective.

Everyone invokes Reagan from time-to-time about the firmness of his vision, but Reagan, especially after his initial tax cuts, was a lot more reflective than he is given credit for being.  The 1986 tax reform package and the Social Security agreement were just two instances where Reagan stayed rhetorically true to his vision while veering from it in a policy sense.  I don't see Palin possessing that ability.

October 15, 2008 10:58 PM