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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
14.10.2008
The Triple Dog Dare

John McCain's declaration that, thanks to Barack Obama's gibes, he will bring up William Ayers at tomorrow night's debate seems to me rather foolish on several grounds.

First, it's hard to see how McCain wins an exchange on this subject. Polls have suggested little public interest in Obama's past association with Ayers, and thanks to the McCain campaign's near-constant invocation of the subject very few people will be hearing about it for the first time. Moreover, poll after poll shows that voters believe Obama is talking about the issues more while McCain is attacking more, which is a real problem for McCain when people are justifiably worried about the economy.

It's not hard to envision how this may play out: McCain will raise Ayers in that awkward, semi-comic manner of his, as if he's not really sure it's something he wants to be bringing up. (Possibly moderator Bob Shieffer will bring it up for him, which would help, but I suspect any comment he makes will still sound uncomfortable.) The real-time viewer response needles will nosedive, as they have almost every time McCain has attacked in the debates so far.

Obama will very reasonably respond that it's a distant association, that he was 8 years old when Ayers committed his crimes, that he deplores said crimes, etc., etc. Then he'll turn it around on McCain, pointing out that it is all very old news, and the McCain campaign didn't think it was worth discussing until it found itself in a deep electoral hole. He'll accuse McCain of trying to "change the subject" and will cite the top McCain strategist who idiotically told the Daily News, "If we keep talking about the economic crisis we'll lose." Anyone who thinks such an exchange is a win for McCain should contact me immediately, as I have a lucrative opportunity in the housing market I'd like to discuss with you. 

Even apart from the particulars, McCain's promise seems to fail three general debating rules:

1) Don't fence yourself in before the debate begins. McCain now pretty much has to bring up Ayers, even if there are no questions that make it easy to do, even if his advisers decide the issue is a loser for him, even if, when push comes to shove, he feels uncomfortable about it, etc. If he doesn't, Obama and Biden's taunts will really start to stick.

2) Don't tell your opponent how you're going to attack him before you do. Yes, of course, Obama already had an Ayers response ready before McCain's comments today. But now he'll be that much more certain to have it neatly polished--and he'll be prepared to rebut McCain implicit claim that he's only bringing up Ayers because Obama forced him to.

3) Perhaps most importantly, if you've already lost two debates to your opponent, the second by a large margin, don't do something just because he dares you to.

McCain may not regret it quite as much as poor old Flick (below), but I wouldn't rule out the possibility:

 

--Christopher Orr

Posted: Tuesday, October 14, 2008 3:01 PM with 19 comment(s)

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adaglas said:

Remember how, in Back To the Future, Marty McFly just couldn't let it go when someone called him chicken?  That never seemed to work out to well for ol' Marty.

October 14, 2008 3:22 PM

sdemuth said:

"Don't tell your opponent how you're going to attack him before you do."

Curiously enough, a bit of advice McCain pointedly gave Obama in the last two debates.

October 14, 2008 3:55 PM

anonevent said:

And now, Obama can bring up how McCain's transition team head used to lobby for Saddam Hussein:

www.huffingtonpost.com/.../mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html

Sounds like a winner to me.

October 14, 2008 4:03 PM

icarusr said:

Frankly to *admit* that you have been goaded into doing something takes a breathtaking level of stupidity; one is driven to utter, "inconceivable."

October 14, 2008 4:07 PM

ealbion1 said:

Right on, sdemuth.  McCain said he wouldn't "telegraph his punches."

October 14, 2008 4:12 PM

michael said:

OK, this first part is fine but make it short, sweet and direct.

"Obama will very reasonably respond that it's a distant association, that he was 8 years old when Ayers committed his crimes, that he deplores said crimes, etc., etc. Then he'll turn it around on McCain, pointing out that it is all very old news, and..."

[STOP]

Barack is telling the above to Bob and the camera...he then turns to McCain. "John, you know that's the whole story and so does everyone who has bothered to seek the truth."

(Pause) 3-2-1 "

"If you would have asked me the first time we met? We could have been done with it.  But voters tell me they prefer I spend the next three weeks addressing issues that impact *their* lives...John, Bill Ayers is only a subject you seem to care about and by no stretch is he part of America's future. But you and your campaign can continue to hammer me with these attacks...it' your dollar."

October 14, 2008 4:16 PM

icarusr said:

Well, there is also that minor "glass houses" business.  

Over at HuffPo: it would appear that the head of McCain's transition team worked, for five years, with two convicted felons who aided Saddam's rehabilitation efforts after 1991.  I don't know if all the facts reported are correct, but they appear to be from testimony given to prosecutors and investigators in the course of the trial of the two Iraq-related felons.

"William Timmons, the Washington lobbyist who John McCain has named to head his presidential transition team, aided an influence effort on behalf of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to ease international sanctions against his regime.

[...]

Vincent, an Iraqi-born American citizen with whom Timmons worked most closely, pleaded guilty to federal criminal charges in January 2005 that he had acted as an unregistered agent of Saddam Hussein's regime. Tongsun Park, the second lobbyist who Timmons worked closely with, was convicted by a federal jury in July 2006 on charges that he too violated the Foreign Agent Registration Act.

[...]

Timmons testified that he first introduced Vincent to Tongsun Park and encouraged him to hire Park to work on the deal.

[...]

Timmons also claimed that he was motivated to push forward with the lobbying campaign with Vincent and Park not only to assist Saddam's regime but also because he believed that his actions would serve U.S. interests, that they would help the people of Iraq obtain needed medicine and food being denied them by sanctions, and would serve to facilitate a rapprochement of relations between Hussein and the U.S. that would be beneficial to both countries.

[...]

According to Vincent's testimony, Timmons immediately opened doors for the Iraqi-American lobbyist. He talked to then-Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger on Vincent's behalf. He also contacted then-Sen. Bob Dole and John Bolton, then-undersecretary of state for international affairs, to discuss Vincent's plan.

In a meeting with U.N. officials, Vincent pressed his case armed with "talking points" that Timmons had written for him. Before using them, Vincent said that he first sent the talking points to Nizaar Hamdoon and Tariq Aziz, with Timmons' approval."

www.huffingtonpost.com/.../mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html

October 14, 2008 4:21 PM

Robert Powell said:

Don't forget G. Gordon Liddy.

If this was a fight, the referee would stop it.

October 14, 2008 4:52 PM

Rhubarbs said:

"It's not hard to envision how this may play out: McCain will raise Ayers in that awkward, semi-comic manner of his ..."

Um, no. If McCain goes there, he'll go there in a full-throated aggressive manner, and he'll keep repeating whatever distorted talking point he comes in with regardless of Obama's response. We've seen McCain go nuclear with a dishonest attack in a debate before, and this is what it looks like:

www.youtube.com/watch

October 14, 2008 5:21 PM

WoodyBombay said:

God, I do not want to have to look at that shit-eating grin and the hyper-blinky eyes for the next four years.

Oh, and the to-your-face lying, too.

October 14, 2008 9:18 PM

psantillana said:

What an absolute moron. He's going to bring it up in a debate, no matter what the question is? Like Sarah Palin and her index cards of Things To Say When It's Your Turn?

And if he changes him mind he looks like a jackass, again.

October 14, 2008 10:13 PM

frilz1 said:

Obama goading McWar into bringing up Ayers just remind me of the Disney character, Bro' Rabbit pleading with Bro' Fox & Bro' Bear, "please, oh puhleeeeze, DON'T throw me into the briar patch!"

October 15, 2008 5:35 AM

Nusholtz said:

The Ayers argument by McCain is a parlor trick, an illusion based on innuendo.  There's a difference between that and distorting something that McCain said to make a point, like staying in Iraq for 100 years.  Here is an example to explain.  In "Angler," the book about Cheney, there is an incident where Cheney has gone to the hospital for a heart attack after the voting has happened and before Bush can be appointed by five justices on the Supreme Court.  Such news could affect the outcome of the contest over who will become the next president, so Bush announces that Cheney has gone to the hospital only as a precautionary measure.  Sure, but precautionary to what?  The important information is covered up with an illusion to manipulate popular opinion.  That event explains the entire Bush presidency and the Ayers argument looks like the same Bush path that McCain would be willing to take.

October 15, 2008 7:03 AM

tlowitz said:

Here's a way Obama can get extra mileage from the Ayers attack: "John, as I've said repeatedly, one of the hallmarks of my approach to governing is my belief that the most good comes about when we find common ground with those we work with. Of course I disagree with Bill Ayers on some fundamental matters, but I also disagree with you and most of the Republicans in Congress on some fundamental matters, and yet I hope to sit down at the table and work with you to find our common ground, the areas where we agree, because those are the areas where I know I will be able to lead our country most powerfully and positively. I don't believe in shunning a person simply because we have some areas of disagreemnt. I believe in finding the areas of agreement and shared purpose and building upon them. John, you and I share many of the same values -- love of country, desire to grow the economy, the importance of military strength. Foucsing on these areas of agreement, on our common ground, is what will move our nation forward."

October 15, 2008 9:38 AM

lewiskaem said:

Did Ayers support Bobby Rush when Obama ran against him? If Ayers did their connection would be even weaker.

October 15, 2008 10:43 AM

Daily Intel said:

McCain must create a game-changing moment without being negative; Obama just has to stand there. Who would you rather be?

October 15, 2008 11:31 AM

The Stump said:

Here's what I don't understand about McCain's (almost certainly spontaneous) announcement

October 15, 2008 12:13 PM

wagonjak said:

...is never to telegraph your attack plans to your enemy...I'm sure O has 10 or 15 different rapier sharp replies ready for this attack, depending on which direction it's coming from.

McNasty has already lost tonight's debate...even before he enters it. No matter what he does, he loses. If he attacks, he get beaten back, if he doesn't, he looks like an erratic liar.

Loser McSnoozer! BBBBBBBBAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWW!!!!!

October 15, 2008 12:32 PM

sportdoc62 said:

The "don't count McCain out" argument continues to feed anxiety about eleventh hour comebacks, but as I was watching Frontline on Obama and McCain last night, I realized McCain does not have a history of knockout blows.  I don't imagine he will have one tonight.  He won the New Hampshire primary in 2000 by grinding his way through VFW halls and building positive word-of-mouth support, much like Obama won Iowa.  There is no time left for that.  What we'll likely get tonight is some new version of "I know how to ______" mixed with some Ayers "zinger" that will fall flat.  What might work at the margins is stoking Reid/Pelosi/Obama coalition fears, but I imagine that is too much of an abstraction to deploy on October 15.

October 15, 2008 12:46 PM