TNR BLOGS

July 03, 2009 | 7:55 PM
July 03, 2009 | 7:37 PM
July 03, 2009 | 7:12 PM

March 09, 2009 | 5:19 PM
March 09, 2009 | 5:16 PM
January 07, 2009 | 12:20 PM

July 01, 2009 | 10:33 PM
June 30, 2009 | 8:42 AM
June 29, 2009 | 9:09 AM

July 26, 2008 | 2:24 PM
July 23, 2008 | 1:55 PM
July 17, 2008 | 3:56 PM

July 03, 2009 | 10:13 PM
July 02, 2009 | 12:57 PM
July 01, 2009 | 7:02 PM
COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
10.10.2008
The Throwing-Under-Buses Phase Begins

This is pretty interesting:

[Norm] Coleman told reporters that he would not be appearing at a planned rally with McCain this afternoon. Could it be McCain's sliding polling numbers in Minnesota? His attacks on Obama? Coleman said he needs the time to work on suspending his own negative ads.

"Today," he said, "people need hope and a more positive campaign is a start."

There are at least three groups of Republicans that might have an interest in distancing themselves from John McCain. Firstly, purple-state moderates like Coleman and Gordon Smith who don't like the campaign's tone. Secondly, the anti-bailout economic populists in the House who might be looking ahead to 2010 and 2012. And thirdly, true conservatives who never trusted McCain that much to begin with.

Far more so than Obama, McCain is dependent on the goodwill of fellow Republicans. With McCain having opted for public financing, RNC funds are an important part of his advertising budget. Because he's way behind Obama on McCain-branded field offices and ground operatives, he is depending on assistance from state and local party organizations. Republican enthusiasm lags behind that of Democrats, and so volunteer resources are scarcer; conservative activists will need to decide if they're going to make phone calls to support McCain or to help save their local Republican Congressman.

The further that McCain falls in the polls, the worse these conflicts become. And it won't help when the campaign is putting out statements like this one (McCain "blew up" the bailout?) and this one (it's Obama's fault that some very small minority of McCain supporters have taken to making violent statements?), which won't pass the media's smell test and reek of stress, sleep deprivation, and low morale in Crystal City.

--Nate Silver

Posted: Friday, October 10, 2008 5:28 PM with 14 comment(s)

Comments

You must be logged-in to comment.

Not a subscriber? Click here to get a digital or print and digital subscription to The New Republic!

cspencef said:

Come now, Plankers, no one else is going to pick up on that last link in Mr. Silver's article?  Really?  I know it's Friday afternoon, but geez louise, that's too blatantly sick to pass up, isn't it?

October 10, 2008 5:56 PM

simon greenwood said:

That second link is incredible.  McCain's campaign is defending bigots on the grounds that they're average Americans.  This could be (and should be) the death knell for his campaign

October 10, 2008 6:04 PM

Wasatcher said:

This sounds like the man with anger issues who tells his woman, "Don't you make me hit you again!"

October 10, 2008 6:13 PM

WaltB said:

More and more Republicans are turning to Obama or saying they'll stay at home.  The neo-Nazi tactics used by the McShame campaign are to blame.  'Morning Joe' said on Colbert that he can't win and was seriously disturbed by what was going on.  I've no idea who is driving that bus, but one of those fundamentalist folks would say the devil took it over.

October 10, 2008 6:15 PM

Rhubarbs said:

While the abusive husband who blames his victim for his crimes is a compelling metaphor for the modern Republican Party, I think a more apt comparison is to a certain German political party between the wars that blamed its communist targets (as well as members of a certain religious minority) for provoking the anger of its own violent mobs.

On the other hand, we've certainly had literal pitchfork-wielding, torch-burning, mob-action, know-nothing election campaigns in this country before. To the extent that we've actually had a party called the Know Nothings. (Which was not said party's name of choice, and was not originally coined to describe their stupidity, but it was an apt name regardless.)

And even if this were a year in which it was possible to whip up a majority by fanning the flames of sectional or factional hatred, I'm not sure that it would be possible to do so on behalf of the incumbent party. It's one thing to rally a mob when your slogan is "Throw the Bums Out!" It's quite another when your slogan is, "Keep the Bums in Office!"

October 10, 2008 6:24 PM

williamyard said:

I assume that, by the first weekend in November at the latest, we'll be seeing huge Photoshopped banners popping up at Palin rallies of Obama and Ahmadinejad giving each other a hot oil massage.

Or if McCain's people aren't above working in an aborted-Caucasian-fetus cannibalism angle, even better. (The media, true invertebrates, aren't allowed to talk to Palin but are totally whipped into giving her ticket tons of free publicity.) Otherwise this whole thing will be over before the polls close in the Rockies and those of us on the Left Coast will once again be the Undeciders.

I want to see Palin winking beneath a huge banner of a faux Obama with a bib around his neck as he appears to gnaw on a BBQ sauce-covered fetal leg. Below the picture, a 20-foot-tall caption: "Mmmm...that's good partial-birth Whitey." Most of the networks will run the shot without comment.

October 10, 2008 6:28 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

The only people left paying attention to this campaign are the press and the nutters.  The last one out, turn off the light,

October 10, 2008 6:30 PM

ryanburke said:

I voted for McCain in the primary (my state's is open to non-Republicans) because I thought he would be a much better direction then the current GOP establishment--only to find that McCain is content to let the worst excesses of the current GOP define his campaign.

Even more alarming than the campaign itself is the fact that so many conservatives don't think they're going far enough.

I usually favor divided government in DC one way or the other, but at this point the GOP needs to be mercy-killed into the wilderness for awhile.

October 10, 2008 8:54 PM

WoodyBombay said:

Aw, yard, take it easy. I'm about to eat dinner over here!

October 10, 2008 8:59 PM

dirque said:

Dang! Since I ain't the press that must mean ... shoot, I had my tinfoil lined had on tight  too.

Dirk

October 10, 2008 9:07 PM

Crock1701 said:

There may also be another logic to this.  Coleman, in going negative, has probably already shoveled all the mud he can on Franken, with the rape jokes and bowling and everything else.  Now that the scandal involving assorted Coleman supporters buying him Nieman Marcus suits and whatnot, he wants to take the high road and goad Franken into following.  Either way, he can preempt him as a "negative nelly" for running ads on the scandal, no matter how relevant they are.  I wouldn't say it's a reaction to McCain so much as a preemption to try and leave voters with a positive impression  

October 10, 2008 11:19 PM

Lyn39 said:

After watching and listening to these hateful and inhumane beasts, I'm wondering whether the liberals among us should not be pushing back against those who would so love to steal our reproductive rights away from us.  Why not start a bill urging folks such as these to undergo hysterectomies and sterlization?  If they want to have a say about my ovaries,  I'd like to have a say about theirs.

October 10, 2008 11:48 PM

satyendra said:

Good viewing from the Rachel Maddow show. www.msnbc.msn.com/.../27125361

October 11, 2008 10:39 AM

Political Animal said:

REPUBLICANS SNUBBING MCCAIN.... John McCain was in Minnesota yesterday, home to a very competitive U.S. Senate race. Given the attention that comes with a visit from a presidential candidate, one might assume that Sen. Norm Coleman (R) would want to.

October 11, 2008 11:24 AM