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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
09.10.2008
Next Stop, Berkeley

The last time John McCain visited Iowa, all he got out of it was an embarrassing video of his testy meeting with the editorial board of the Des Moines Register and a column by former strategist Mike Murphy that derided the "stunning lack of competence in the McCain operation" and asked "Why put McCain in the wrong state, at the wrong place?"

But give McCain points for obstinance, if nothing else. As Jonathan Martin points out, he's headed back to Iowa for a rally in Davenport on Saturday. Why? Dan Balz reports:

Asked why, if he has given up on Michigan, McCain has not given up on Iowa, a state that looks strong for Obama in public polls, [McCain Political Director Mike] DuHaime said because the campaign's polling has Obama's lead in the low single digits. 

Hmm. There hasn't been a ton of recent polling in Iowa, presumably because no one sees much point: Pollster.com lists it as "strong" Obama, RCP says "solid" Obama, and FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 96 percent chance of winning there. Of the last ten polls listed on Pollster.com, only one has had the race closer than 7 points (the inaugural "Big Ten" poll, which was conducted in mid-September) and a majority have Obama's lead in double digits. So either this visit is some kind of misplaced confidence game on McCain's part, or his polls are, frankly, nuts. 

Not as nuts, however, as his campaign manager. Also in the Balz piece was this gem: 

Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, told reporters after the debate that he still likes his candidate's situation. Better, he said, to be defending red states than having to convert blue states to win. McCain has a lot of them to defend -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Yes, much better to be playing defense all game. After all, it's easier to keep your opponent from scoring a touchdown than to score one youself! The recriminations that come out of the McCain camp if he loses are going to make the Clinton campaign look like, well, the Obama campaign.

--Christopher Orr

Posted: Thursday, October 09, 2008 10:47 AM with 7 comment(s)

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bradigan said:

Maybe Davis was only pointing that McCain doesn't need to win any Kerry states to win; he only has to win Bush states, i.e. "red states".  Of course, that's small consolation when your down in 6 or 7 "red states".  

October 9, 2008 11:00 AM

icarusr said:

Look, there is a native common sense to Rick Davis' comment.  All POWPOW has to do is hang on to Bush's states; there is no point for them to go after states Kerry won.  So yeah, they are playing "defence" because, based not on polls today but the election in 2004, they are or think themselves ahead.

And where would you suggest he go, to Philly?

October 9, 2008 11:01 AM

Rhubarbs said:

But I thought McCain believed in fighting on the enemy's turf so we don't have to fight the enemy on our own turf.

Is McCain admitting that the offense-defense thing is a false dichotomy?

October 9, 2008 11:15 AM

blackton said:

icky, they were just in my own hometown in Bethlehem Pa, at Lehigh, which is my Pater de Familia's alma mater. I am down in Mexico, otherwise I would have loved to have gone just to boo them.

October 9, 2008 12:10 PM

rossjem said:

I'm sorry, this is ridiculous.  McCain DOES have to convert blue states (PA, MI, NH) precisely BECAUSE he's down outside the margin of error in like seven red states, any one of which would, if Obama won it, basically hand him the election.  To use a football metaphor, Davis' comment is like saying, "Hey, sure, maybe the other team has possession of the ball and has breezed by my defense and is making its way into my end zone as we speak, but at least I don't have to worry about making it to THEIR end zone!"  -- you can go with that, but at the end of the day, the other guys are going to have more points.

At this point it seems like Davis' big idea is to successfully execute a strategy that, even if successfully executed, wouldn't, in fact, win McCain the election.  We're entering Hillaryesque levels of institutional denial here -- when is Mark Penn going to pop up and start insisting that Obama winning NY and CA in the general shouldn't count because, hey, Democrats ALWAYS win those states!

October 9, 2008 12:28 PM

kj_593 said:

Here's all the answer you need as to the status of Iowa: When was the last Obama or Biden or Michelle were in Iowa?

October 9, 2008 1:54 PM

mundye said:

rossjem,

I think we'll be hearing that particular line of argument from Schmidt on Nov. 5th when McCain demands a recount of the "squeaker" election where Obama had 330 EVs.

October 9, 2008 4:14 PM