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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
08.10.2008
We Are the (Economically Depressed) World

This morning's Financial Times headline reads "Central banks launch rate cut." Finally! Not to inflate my own perspicacity, but I've been saying for weeks that what the financial crisis calls for is first and foremost a coordinated international response, preferably one led by the United States. Even if it just meant photo ops, summits, and verbal commitments, the signal that the largest economies are working together is vital to injecting confidence into global markets. Without it, since the Paulson plan passed, we've simply seen investors shift their anxieties to Europe.

Now the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Canadian, Swiss, Swedish, and UAE central banks have cut rates by half a percentage point, and the People's Bank of China cut rates by 0.27 percentage points. Even the Bank of Japan, which didn't cut rates, expressed strong support for the move.

This is far from the solution to the crisis, though it should help calm the waters. The next move is to build on this unity by putting together a summit of as many finance ministers as possible, along with high-ranking members of the IMF and World Bank. And as luck would have it, the annual IMF and World Bank summits are scheduled for October 13 in Washington. In The Washington Post this morning, C. Fred Bergsten and Arvind Subramanian outline a host of steps the gathered bigwigs should take, including coordinated deposit guarantees and bank recapitalizations. (Martin Wolf at the Financial Times also has a long piece on the need for coordinated recapitalization this morning.) The new steps should also include a commitment to eschew currency controls, protectionism, and other desperate measures that might help a single economy in the short-term while hurting everyone else. Doing so would go a long way toward recognizing that, in a globalized world, we're all in this together.

--Clay Risen

Posted: Wednesday, October 08, 2008 11:31 AM with 2 comment(s)

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JEFF FREY said:

Seems like our current President should come out of his cave again and actually do something.

October 8, 2008 12:31 PM

mpintar2 said:

Albeit helpful, the coordinated rate cuts will only be felt much later. The coordinated efforts of US Treasury, Fed and their counterparts in other economies has effectively cauterized the banking system problem. There is now no major national banking system in the entire world that is not implicitly or explicitely backed by the sovereign. The profound effects this will have for financial markets and the global economy going forward could fill volumes but that is for another day. Unfortunately, this banking system problem has morphed into something more powerful. First, the global economy has crashed. The data released thus far has given a glimpse but the really bad data is still to come as most economic data releases have not surveyed the after-effects of what began the second half of September following Lehman's collapse. Secondly, and perhaps more critically, this problem has begun a great unwinding of leveraged risk positions by hedge funds and non-leveraged positions from mutual funds and pension funds globally. The orders of magnitude of this are scary. The hedge fund industry is estimated between $2-3 trn globally. Incorporating leverage this means the position unwinds require an amount of capital of between $5-10 trillion, which is not available. This is why we are seeing the movements in global equity indices, currencies, commodities and fixed income markets that are, in many cases, unprecedented despite very powerful and positive responses from governments. Round and round it will go, where it stops....

October 8, 2008 12:54 PM