It's hard to keep abreast of the unfolding economic crisis
in Europe. Banks are teetering. Investors are
fleeing. The London FTSE-100 is down 8.5 percent, the German DAX is down 7
percent, and the Paris CAC-40 is down 9.8 percent. A big part of the problem is
the lack of a continental response. Over the weekend the heads of Europe's major economies met to discuss the continents'
growing financial crisis; nice words were spoken, and no actions were taken. Meanwhile,
only days after Ireland
caught flak for guaranteeing the liabilities of six of its banks, Germany, Iceland,
Italy, and the Benelux
nations have all bailed out financial institutions, while Germany and several others have
guaranteed consumer bank deposits.
The problem is that none of this is coordinated, and already,
commentators are asking whether the crisis signals the end of the EU experiment
as we know it. Financial Times
columnist Wolfgang Münchau writes,
"A systemic banking crisis is one of those few conceivable shocks with the
potential to destroy Europe's monetary union."
An open letter to
policy makers from some 200 European economists sees things even more darkly:
"Every European knows what happened when financial markets seized up in the
dark years of the 1930s. It is not an exaggeration to say that it could happen
again if governments fail to act."
No one yet expects a calamity of 1930s proportions. But
there are several reasons for being bearish on Europe's
ability to successfully respond to the crisis. The first is that after years of
calling out American-style "predatory capitalism" and weeks of schadenfreude
over Wall Street's woes, continental policymakers seem incapable of accepting
the extent of their own problem. French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed a
300 billion euro emergency fund for EU institutions, only to be accused of
aping the Bush administration. In response, he and his surrogates stepped back
quickly. "This is not an idea for some kind of Paulson plan because we don't
have the same magnitude of toxic assets as the US," one French official told
the Irish Times. That remains to be
seen, however, and Europe has its own problems:
Many of its largest banks, for example, are already woefully undercapitalized.
More significant is the obvious flaw in the EU financial
structure. During the heyday of the 1990s, the EU bored ahead with currency
unification and the establishment of the European Central Bank (ECB)--and the
euro's rise against the dollar during the 2000s seemed to vindicate its
strategy. But the union never put in place the policymaking institutions that
could take over in a crisis: The ECB, modeled after the Bundesbank, is good at
one thing--managing inflation--while there is no equivalent of the U.S.
Treasury to make quick, coordinated decisions. So, while the EU is a great team
in the good times, so far it seems that in a crisis, it's every chancellor for
himself. This creates a perfect storm: Commentators and investors are demanding
collective action, but the union is unable and unwilling to provide it.
This is, to put it mildly, an extremely bad thing. The
crisis confronting the EU is infinitely more complex than that facing the United States.
True, a lot of the fundamentals are the same. But trying to coordinate finance
policy across borders, even Europe's porous
frontiers, is a tremendous challenge. Much of the EU financial architecture was
constructed at a time when there were few banks with international operations;
thanks to denationalization and deregulation, the largest European banks have
subsidiaries across most of the continent, creating a regulatory spaghetti
bowl. Moreover, while even the biggest US banks pale in comparison to the size
of the U.S. government, in Europe, 14 banks are
larger than their home countries' GDP. (UBS, based in Switzerland, is an astounding 484 percent
of Swiss GDP.) Should one of these banks fail, it would be impossible for their
country to bail them out.
What to do? Daniel Gros and Stefano Micossi of the Center
for European Policy Studies have a short paper up with
some suggestions: an EU-wide charter for banks operating transnationally; an
EU-run contingency fund to handle bailouts; and an EU-led public
recapitalization of the banking sector. Europe
has the advantage of watching the Paulson plan unfold and learning from its
success or failure, and it should work those lessons into an eventual
continent-wide policy.
The problem is, there is no "it" right now. The fiction of a
politically unified Europe is unraveling, even as the realities of an
economically interdependent Europe become
apparent. If national and EU policymakers can't act quickly to resolve their
differences, the cost of the American meltdown will pale in comparison to Europe's.
--Clay Risen