Update 6:15pm : Consider this poll with Nate Silver's qualms in mind. It's Obama 49-42 over McCain

My interpretation? The Palin choice has been an unmitigated disaster. It made choosing the seasoned and grizzled old Senate lion look RISKIER than the half-black community organizing firebrand.  It thoroughly turned the experience argument (always McCain's strongest hand) ON ITS HEAD. Man, what a dumb move.

The bounce for Obama is due entirely to the economic crisis.  Mr. and Mrs. America have, to-date, blamed the entire mess on the Republicans.  If they continue to do so, Obama and the Democrats will win in a landslide.

Before the crisis, Mr. and Mrs. America were mad at Wall Street, Angelo Mozillo, his ilk and his minions, and ordinary people who lied about their finances and occupations to get houses they couldn't hope to afford.  Now, they are mainly mad at Wall Street.  Before the crisis, they were offended by class politics, the Black Caucus's self-obsession, and the "laisser-faire" wing of the Republican party.  Now, they are mainly mad at the "laisser-faire" Republicans.  Before, they were a little frightened by Obama's liberalism; now they are a little frightened by McCain's ostensible conservatism.  

Most important, Obama, inherently a critic of much that has happened in this country in the last quarter century, suddenly looks more like a calm optimist, and McCain, whose bedrock appeal has been to tradition and patriotism, looks more like an angry crank, trying to be both Taft and TR.  Optimists win; ask FDR, Reagan and...................Barry Goldwater.

Is this sudden shift in opinion entirely fair or entirely rational?  Of course not.  Will it last?  This Republican wouldn't bet on McCain figuring out the right way to reverse it.  

"The bounce for Obama is due entirely to the economic crisis.  Mr. and Mrs. America have, to-date, blamed the entire mess on the Republicans.  If they continue to do so, Obama and the..."

In one sense, OK.  This will be the right wing shtick, its just clearly not the whole truth or even the major truth.

McCain's numbers started freefalling once he picked Palin - facts are inconvenient things.  Despite the fact that the media is studiously trying to ignore this (which is getting funny), the vast majority of Americans are offended by this woman.  She's awful in ten ways and his is what started the downfall.

The Wall Street collapse speeded it up and will continue to - the failure of right wing ideology is obvious and complete. But Palin was the fuel to the fire and no amount of bullshi**ing will cover that up.

Once again:  I said from day 1 that McCain will rue the day that he ever layed eyes n her.  She's the personification of his selling his soul  - a walking ID.

Wandrey, that's not actually true.  McCain's numbers went up after he picked Palin, with that and the convention vaulting him into a brief lead.  That bounce had faded a bit by the time the financial crisis took center stage, but the polls were very close at that point.   Palin might have compounded the problem by using the Couric interview to try to convince Americans that she was completely out of her depth, but the root issue moving the polls is the financial crisis.

Alan, Wandrey, I think in a way you're both right,  Palin gave McCain a convention bounce of conservatives coming home and people intrigued by her cultural populism.  However,  the financial crisis wiped out McCain's bounce.  Moreover, Palin contributed to the public perception of McCain's erratic behavior and overall lack of seriousness (espec. with the Couric interview).  Obama/Biden were serious, talked about real issues, and in short, looked and acted Presidential.  Palin, for all her expectation beating, lost the debate anyway because the American people, thanks to the crisis, got sober and are looking for serious answers.  That's why I think McCain's negative month won't work: Just because a bailout bill passed doesn't mean the Economy's rosy.  If McCain thinks he can pivot away from that to minutia, I think the average voter will laugh him out of the country:  These are serious times, and people get it.  So does the Obama campaign.  The only one that doesn't?  John McCain.

"The bounce for Obama is due entirely to the economic crisis."

Not quite true. That was the trigger, of course, but you can't underestimate the damage McCain did to himself with his erratic behavior over the last couple of weeks. Swinging from "the fundamentals are sound" to we are in a crisis to I'm suspending my campaign to taking credit for the deal an hour before it was voted down. His behavior was bizarre and really does call into question his fitness for the office.

OK, then it's 90% due to the financial mess. Out political class is inept and corrupt. Time to throw the bums out. Independent voters especially get this. Unless  a miracle happens and hiring, credit, home sales etc do a 180 in the next two weeks, this one's over. Won't be close.

MONDAY'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP....Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers: * Joe Biden's mother-in-law, Bonny Jean Jacobs, died yesterday at the age of 78