Poll Predictions - The Plank

29.09.2008

Poll Predictions

By October first, presidential tracking polls begin to predict the winner in November accurately. Since 1960, Gallup’s tracking poll registered the winner in the popular vote (including Al Gore in 2000), eleven of twelve times. The one exception is 1980, when Jimmy Carter still led Ronald Reagan by 44 to 40 percent. The late September-early October polls have not necessarily predicted the final margin. Third party candidates usually screw up the total, because their support usually drops by the final election, and generally the race narrows somewhat by the end. In 1996, for instance, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole by 14 percentage points on October first. Clinton’s final margin would be 8.5 percentage points. In 2004, George W. Bush led John Kerry by 8 percentage points. His final margin would be only 2.4 points. But in six of these elections--1960, 1964, 1976, 1984, 1988 and 2000--the final margin was different from the October first polling results by less than three percentage points. Given these results, supporters of Barack Obama can take heart from the fact that he is leading 50 to 42 percent in the latest Gallup tracking poll.

--John B. Judis

Posted: Monday, September 29, 2008 10:06 AM with 3 comment(s)

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FWright said:

"The one exception is 1980, when Jimmy Carter still led Ronald Reagan by 44 to 40 percent. "

And that was an odd election - October 1 was before the only Carter-Reagan debate, which turned the race into a landslide. Heartening indeed.

September 29, 2008 10:43 AM

Rhubarbs said:

Here's what I would regard as good news: Not the date on which any given candidate has a lead, but the number of polls (and frequency on any given poll) in which a candidate achieves 51 percent support. You can hit 50 percent and still lose the race if everyone who isn't for you votes against you. But once you hit 51 percent, your opponent must win some of your votes to beat you. That's much, much harder to do.

September 29, 2008 10:55 AM

michael said:

Re: Rhubarbs & the 50%. (Mostly what you wrote)

I've been looking at the 50+1% in national as well, especially in state polls because 1.) It takes the sting out of the unsure as they fall into place. (The more McCain does to win them back the more he risks pushing them to Obama). 2.) In critical battleground states new registrations are a net plus for Barack and some states are adding 10-30% new voters over the '04 turnout. That should cushion a Bradley Effect. 3.) If not icing McCain 30 days out, Obama can see Palin has topped out & the foreign policy debate is history.If we view each day as a 'possession' in basketball then Obama should score (economy, change) on most days leaving McCain to foul & he's lost his cred with the refs.

I think McCain will regret going to DC because it confirmed the GOP has bailed on Bush but he couldn't win them as a coalition. As any attorney knows, don't demand an answer from a witness until you already know it. No, McCain didn't want to ask something from Congress and have them turn on him with a demand he couldn't carry out. Too many in the house don't need Bush or him. They're safe for now and looking to see where to head in '10.

Yes, Obama could see a defection from his decided-majority but it appears his slow-to-close on stragglers means they aren't fickle. No, the unsure moving to Obama are more sticky than the flow to and then away to Palin. McCain can't see any good news as Obama crosses the 50% barrier, with him in the low to mid 40's McCain needed close by poaching leaners. When Barack reaches a majority that is means McCain has to raid the committed....a tall order.

September 29, 2008 12:34 PM