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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
27.09.2008
Did McCain's Attacks Work?

It is worth drawing a distinction between two lines of attack that John McCain pursued in last night's debate. The first is the one that will garner more attention from Saturday Night Live tonight and the comedy shows this week, and it consisted of McCain saying that his opponent, Barack Obama, is "naive" and does not "understand" that we live in a dangerous world. By my count, McCain used this line of attack (and the U-word), six different times (tactics vs. strategies, the surge, Pakistan pre-Musharraf, a connection between Iraq and Afghanistan, negotiating with Iran, Russian aggression, the importance of Iraq). The second line of attack consisted of McCain hinting that Obama was an empty suit, a politican who blows with the wind and does things for political gain instead of the right reasons. Two examples of this strategy (or is it a tactic?) would be McCain's claim that Obama only boarded the anti-pork bandwagon once he started running for president, and his (McCain's) comments on the lack of hearings held on Afghanistan by Obama's Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee. This attack, at least to one debate watcher, was much, much more effective.

There are a few problems with McCain's 'Obama-does-not-understand-the-world' assault. For starters, McCain is incapable of saying things like this without coming across as incredibly condescending (especially, one would imagine, to people under the age of 50). And second, these diatribes do not really fit with one's impression of Obama. If nothing else, the Illinois senator comes across as extremely smart and even professorial, and thus it does not make much sense to think that people are really going to question his understanding of whether Russia attacked Georgia first. Which brings us to the third problem, namely that McCain used the "understand" line much, much too often. It is one thing to say that your opponent does not understand the importance of Iraq to the wider Muslim world; it is quite another to call into question his basic knowledge of the political situation in countries that are all over the news.

I would argue that McCain's second line of attack is/was more effective. It plays into what I think is probably Obama's greatest liability, i.e. the question of whether he is just a celebrity politician without gravitas or character. The subcommittee moment was the only time during the entire debate that I winced, and Obama's reply came across as insufficient. The other advantage to McCain's circulation of this meme is that the Arizonan is able to voice it without appearing old and grumpy. This perhaps has less to do with the criticism itself than it does with McCain's particular personality, but that in itself is irrelevant. 

--Isaac Chotiner

Posted: Saturday, September 27, 2008 12:19 PM with 12 comment(s)

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timteeter said:

On a different but related question--McCain's obsession with earmarks--I noticed one moment where McCain fell flat.  He trotted out his "bear paternity" joke again, and no one laughed.

This brings up something I wish some TNR researcher-reporter would investigate, namely just how wasteful was it to study bear DNA, anyway?  The purpose of the $3 million, after all, was to determine if a certain kind of bear (grizzlies?) should remain on the endangered species list.

Well, how much does it cost, in land management, paperwork, etc., to keep a bear on the endangered species list?  What if it turns out that this was $3 million well spent?

September 27, 2008 1:31 PM

Wasatcher said:

And more importantly did they work with swing voters?

The strategy/tactic question is interesting because it's one way of explaining the difference between the two candidates. McCain is a tactician and Obama is a strategist. You want a good tactician in the cockpit of a fighter plane, and this week McCain was running his campaign like a dog fight. Patton was a better tactician than Eisenhower. He was great for kicking ass on the battlefield, but he would have been disaster in the White House. The criticisms leveled at Obama are similar to what a lot of people said about Eisenhower's command in WW II -- too deferential, not aggressive enough, inexperienced in command. But his calm diplomacy and his focus on an overarching strategy made it possible for the tacticians to win battles.

So while many people applaud McCain's aggression and passion -- the qualities of a fighter pilot -- Obama frustrates people by acting more like a...what's the word? Oh, yeah, like a president.

September 27, 2008 1:36 PM

jet said:

I don't know Issac, with peeps worried where they're sheltering their kids next week, how they'll get them to school, and how they'll get food in their mouths...  and Obama's subcommittee on Afghanistan didn't meet?  What's in your Wallet!? as the ad goes.

Maybe it's a spot that needs a better answer, but...

...maybe because after this last week of the McCain campaign 'suspending' itself, running to Washington as if trying to save the day for Wall Street; McCain suggesting it's in the national interest to postpone the debate until the financial crisis is fixed; and still campaigning to an extent via statements and ads; and finally agreeing to debate when scheduled as the crisis wasn't so much that a fix couldn't be worked on over the weekend; and nothing came of the meetings that

it was McCain that looked like a celebrity politician, trying to capitalize on the big news of the day, not Obama who suggested they keep campaigning and insisted the debate go on.

September 27, 2008 1:48 PM

dlipner said:

Why doesn't Obama just say what McCain's calls not "understanding" is actually a different world view.  A world view that is different from McCain and different from Bush.  A world view that incorporates nuances and complexities such as differences between Shia and Sunni.  So it is actually McCain who doesn't understand.  It is this choice that the American people have.  Continue the ideology of Bush McCain who brought us to war in Iraq and contributed to the financial crises or move in a different direction.

Sorry, I was watching last night with white knuckles waiting for this moment.  It didn't come so I thought I would drop in a message board where perhaps three people might read it.  

September 27, 2008 2:00 PM

dylanposer said:

Isaac,

Good points, but we have to remember that in a "dead-heat" race, the content of one's remarks is supposed to be geared to those wavering voters.  Remember those streaming line graphs that measured audience perception as the seconds passed?  (How did they do this?  Were the audience on mobile CAT scans?)  The important line to watch was the independents', and they didn't produce the kinds of deviations from the center that would suggest any sort of "win" for any of the candidates, but I the independents in the audience did not represent the regional demographics that will push particular states over into the red or blue column.

I wonder if McCain's use of "doesn't understand the world" and invocation of the Holocaust had any measurable effect on older South Floridians, who, in all likelihood, will decide Florida's 27 EV's.  Why not hook these people up to the radiographs next time--it's not like they are unfamiliar with medical imaging.   "Doesn't understand the world" might resonate with parents in Western Pennsylvania, or Independents from New Hampshire who loathe the worldview of those meddling Vermont hippies and NYC hipsters.  

Yet, here we were in Mississippi, measuring a mixed audience.  I realize that cable news networks don't want to shirk on their imperative to be completely representational, but let's study the people who matter.

September 27, 2008 2:00 PM

dylanposer said:

Isaac,

Good points, but we have to remember that in a "dead-heat" race, the content of one's remarks is supposed to be geared to those wavering voters.  Remember those streaming line graphs that measured audience perception as the seconds passed?  (How did they do this?  Were the audience on mobile CAT scans?)  The important line to watch was the independents', and they didn't produce the kinds of deviations from the center that would suggest any sort of "win" for any of the candidates, but I the independents in the audience did not represent the regional demographics that will push particular states over into the red or blue column.

I wonder if McCain's use of "doesn't understand the world" and invocation of the Holocaust had any measurable effect on older South Floridians, who, in all likelihood, will decide Florida's 27 EV's.  Why not hook these people up to the radiographs next time--it's not like they are unfamiliar with medical imaging.   "Doesn't understand the world" might resonate with parents in Western Pennsylvania, or Independents from New Hampshire who loathe the worldview of those meddling Vermont hippies and NYC hipsters.  

Yet, here we were in Mississippi, measuring a mixed audience.  I realize that cable news networks don't want to shirk on their imperative to be completely representational, but let's study the people who matter.

September 27, 2008 2:00 PM

AlanSP said:

A few points.  First, my guess is that a lot of the viewing public sort of tunes out when people start talking about about Senate subcommittee hearings.  Hillary tried using that attack and didn't get much traction with it, primarily because most people (aside from politicians and political journalists) don't particularly care about subcommittee hearings.  Off the top of their head, I doubt many people can name any important subcommittee hearings, let alone who chaired them.

Second, Obama's biggest liability has never been the idea that "he's just a celebrity politician without gravitas or character."  It was the worry that he was too green, that he lacked the requisite knowledge and experience to run the country (particularly with regard to the military and foreign policy).

But even if you were correct in your assessment of the relative effectiveness of the two lines of attack, McCain focused almost exclusively on one and not the other.  Two lines do not make a central theme.  

McCain tried very hard to get his inexperience/lack of understanding point across (perhaps ham-handedly) by simply repeating the assertion over and over.  Problem was that his characterization didn't really square with the Obama that was actually on display last night.  Even if McCain's secondary attacks were as effective as you suggest, they got drowned out by the primary attacks.

September 27, 2008 2:03 PM

dbhuff said:

In watching the CNN audience dial, it did not work with independants. Typically, McCain would drop below nominal in these attacks. The higher scores were when both candidates were positive. But McCain scored the biggest negs in his attacks. I wasn't watching carefully enough to remember the difference in the attacks, but the difference I saw between the two types was #1 was an assertion by McCain, while #2 was more a statement of facts (which Obama needs better answers for)

And McCain didn't wear a flag pin!

September 27, 2008 2:04 PM

blackton said:

Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but McCain missed a huge opportunity. Here he was in Miss. 41 years after it made headline news that a black man was giving a guest lecture at the University debating a black man for the office of President. Some acknowledgment of this, how Dr. Kings dream is finally starting to be realized, would have gone a long way to take a lot of the meanness out of him.

Obama couldn't have mentioned this without looking both self serving and focused on race, but for McCain it could have been an example of how he understood the immense symbolism of the moment and showing he had an appreciation for it.

September 27, 2008 2:44 PM

JEFF FREY said:

Interesting! I think McCain has clearly established himself as the negative candidate. So I wonder if people are getting tired of it?

September 27, 2008 2:48 PM

fougasseu said:

Did McCain's attacks work?

Hardly.

Across the blogosphere his demeanor called to mind Curtis LeMay, Col. Nathan Jessep ("A Few Good Men"), Bull Meechum ("The Great Santini"), Col. Cathcart ("Catch-22"), and Don Rumsfeld.

McCain isn't a Republican, he's a martinet.

Time for the bullying muzzle-loaders to exit the Oval Office and the DOD. Time for leadership and statesmanship. Time for less talk and leaders who can listen. Time for a Change.

September 27, 2008 3:24 PM

danm1130 said:

Obviously I'm FAR from the target swing voter, but I thought the subcommittee hearing question played well for Obama.  Time and again during McCain's remarks, Obama would interject a "that's simply not true John," but there was rarely time to explain why this was the case, and the distinctions Obama was making were often hard to really sink one's teeth into.  With the issue of the subcommittee hearings, Obama made the point that this was a matter of procedural minutiae, appealed to Joe Biden's greater (than either Obama or McCain's) understanding of the issue, and then offered a simple, compelling, and overriding explanation--that the matter is one handled by the committee as a whole, so Obama wouldn't chair hearings on the matter (but presumably was involved in committee-level hearings).  And McCain's later response to this seemed especially weak to me, something like "well, if I were the subcommittee chairman, you can be sure I would have held hearings," a statement which also played into the recent narrative of McCain posturing to look like he's on top of issues even if his involvement is superfluous or even counterproductive.  As I said, I'm definitely predisposed to see things in a pro-Obama light, but I definitely saw this exchange as one that broke in Obama's favor--what did others think?

September 29, 2008 1:01 AM