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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
26.09.2008
Method to McCain's Madness?

 

I've been writing a series of blog posts trying to figure out exactly what John McCain was after with this campaign-suspension gambit. My premise is that McCain is a savvy operator who knows how to protect his own political interests. I figured he was looking for some way to shuffle the debate schedule, to move the foreign policy debate until later (when it could have more impact) or to bury/cancel the veep debate. Another theory was that he was trying to claim credit for a bailout bill that appeared on track to be done this week.

But instead, McCain seems to have made no effort whatsoever to bring the bailout legislation to closure. Indeed, he may possibly have sunk the whole thing. On the radio this morning, I heard David Corn of Mother Jones speculate that McCain may be setting himself up to rail against the bailout on populist grounds. But McCain and his running mate have already stated publicly that a bailout is needed to avoid a depression!

And now, after insisting it would be unpatriotic to campaign and debate before bailout legislation had been completed, is debating anyway, even though a deal is further away than it was when he suspended his campaign.

So I'm abandoning my assumption that McCain had some grand method behind his campaign suspension gambit. I don't see any method at all.

--Jonathan Chait

Posted: Friday, September 26, 2008 12:36 PM with 14 comment(s)

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sullydog said:

Jonathon: good post, but the picture (and the associated cultural reference) is genius--all the more so because of the physical resemblence.

For those who don't get it:

In the compound, Colonel Kurtz (played by Marlon "Buffalo Butt" Brando) hold Captain Willard captive and banters with him:

KURTZ:

"...why did they want to terminate my command?"

WILLARD

"I was sent on a classified mission, sir."

KURTZ

"Ain't no longer  classified, is it?

What did they tell you ?"

WILLARD

" They told me that you had gone totally insane and that your

methods were unsound."

KURTZ

" Are my methods unsound?"

WILLARD

" I don't see any method at all, sir."

September 26, 2008 1:06 PM

jhildner said:

Agreed.  This is the sort of gut-level, impulsive decision that we now expect from McCain and his campaign which, I don't believe, went beyond the immediate attempt to claim that he's the Country First-iest, and, perhaps, avoid the debate.

September 26, 2008 1:15 PM

Rhubarbs said:

See, this is why you've all got to stop looking for the "real McCain" and the hidden motives. Use that Oxfam Raisin thing and look for the simplest possible motivational answer when judging McCain's behavior. Arkham's Racer tells us that when McCain pulls a completely batshit, dishonest stunt, it's because he's batshit crazy and dishonest to boot. Not that he's playing some masterful, ten-moves-deep, Laskerian game of intrigue. And when it looks like McCain is chickening out of a debate, it's because he's afraid to have the debate. And when McCain appears to cave in to his opponent, it's because he's caved in to his opponent.

The world is so much easier to understand when we shave with Occam's Razor.

September 26, 2008 1:24 PM

arsonplus said:

"McCain and his running mate have already stated publicly that a bailout is needed to avoid a depression!"

Chait haven't you learned anything?

September 26, 2008 1:42 PM

Political Animal said:

NO METHOD, JUST MADNESS.... According to a pool report, John McCain boarded his plane earlier this afternoon with his wife, top aides, and Rudy and Judith Giuliani, all headed for Mississippi. What was the atmosphere like on McCain's plane? According

September 26, 2008 1:43 PM

mkayser0 said:

I agree that John McCain is positioning himself to run against the bailout on populist and conservative grounds.

The link Jonathan provided talks about the risk of inaction -- it does not refer to the risk of sinking the Paulson plan. John will not suffer much blowback for abandoning support of the Paulson plan, as long as he stays in Washington to work on crafting something. Once the fuss is over, Americans will decide this question on the substantive merits of the eventually drafted proposal. And John McCain may be ahead of the curve since many Americans distrust the Paulson bailout.

Democrats are looking good right now, but the game ain't over.

September 26, 2008 1:45 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Oh, put away your partisan dogs for a moment, fellas, and look at the practical impact of McCain's ploy, stunt, whatever you want to call it: Commissar Paulson's P.O.S. plan is D.O.A. Thank f***ing god.

Could the people's representatives now build on this small victory and ask the Commissar

-- why we should trust his assessment now, when barely 6 months ago, he was telling us that all was well and that the credit problems were behind us?

-- why he and Bernanke are rejecting the moderate, sensible, prudent approach of wiping out shareholders and then recapitalizing the banks, as recommended by Calomiris of Columbia B School, Martin Wolf of the FT and plenty of other sane, sober economists?

-- why it is necessary to all of a sudden grant sweeping authority to one man, especially given that man's poor track record of prediction?

Oh, and no more of this "unknown unknowns"-style BS. Show us hard evidence. Earn your $75 million.

September 26, 2008 2:21 PM

The Stump said:

Everybody here is saying McCain's bailout gambit was a failure. (When I offered the observation "It

September 26, 2008 2:30 PM

bonesw505 said:

Jonathan, I think you're mistaken that his move can't be seen as rational any more. There are at least two strategies consistent with what he's done: Nate Silver's idea that he was actually trying to draw *more* attention to this debate, which he expects to win, or the notion that he went to DC with the *intention* of blowing up the negotiations, forcing the Democrats into an akward position. For more on that:

theenlighteneddespot.wordpress.com/.../thats-what-they-said-about-son-of-sam

September 26, 2008 2:30 PM

mkayser0 said:

tep is making sense.

September 26, 2008 3:45 PM

MartyCinc said:

I thought he was just trying to throw Obama off his game by raising doubts as to whether the debate was on or not.  McCain knew all along that it would be on, but he left Obama guessing.

September 26, 2008 6:00 PM

The Plank said:

Today's been busy, between the bailout machinations and debate news, so we've decided to roundup

September 26, 2008 6:31 PM

ironyroad said:

It possible that McCain was thinking that, but in the actual course events Obama kept his eye on the debate which he (Obama) knew would be on.  Given that Obama is not easily rattled, but has rather a wait-and-see approach to the various firework displays from McCain, it seems a flimsy assumption.

September 26, 2008 6:39 PM

lriungu said:

Rhurbarb,

Arkham's Racer? You mean Ockham's Razor?

September 26, 2008 10:01 PM