lib ref, I thought you'd be up with a comment on this thread by now.

Maybe it wasn't a Rorschach test after all?

This seems strange to me. I would like to see more such focus group data.

Can you provide links here?

No surprise. Most Republicans and many seniors probably get off on seeing this arrogant white guy give Obama the who-do-you-think-you-are treatment. Put this uppity black kid in his place.

Whether it was studied or sincere, it was brilliant of Obama to treat McCain with respect. This is not a scary black man.

I imagine everyone under sixty sees McCain as just another insufferable know-it-all (i.e., George Bush, Dick Cheney, etc.) who has all the answers, sees the world in black and white, and when disagreed with, accuses the opposition of "not understanding" - translation: you're stupid, and listening to you is a waste of my time. What a jerk. A clone of Bush.

As Andrew Sullivan wrote many months ago in his prescient piece on Obama, this contest is generational. The contrast was stark between Obama and Clinton, it's more stark between Obama and McCain.

Time for a Change.

I agree fougasseu - the sneering was really bad.  Glad to see I wasn't alone in feeling that way.

McCain already has an ad out showcase how Obama said, "I absolutely agree with Senator McCain."  Not exactly the voice of change.

These polls are of 500 people and do not meet the minimum standards for statistical analysis.  I think a different picture will emerge in the next few days.

Not surprising. If you're for Obama, you likely think Obama won. If you're for McCain, you likely think McCain won. If you have no clue who you're for, you probably don't know much more. But. If you think the country is not going in the right direction, but you aren't sure Obama is ready, then tonight you are much more comfortable with Obama. What's that worth? 3-4 points for Obama? McCain lost ground tonight.

actually CNN was saying their numbers showed seniors going for Obama tonight.  While the pundits called this a tie, I'd have to say that it looks more like a solid Obama win after these polls.

The polls from all the networks and focus groups seem to show that Obama connected better than McCain. I think it was a tie, myself--so better for Obama. But as Gergen pointed out tonite on CNN, the polls will be part of the narrative tomorrow--even better for Obama. McCain performed fairly well (where was the lapel pin? how come he wouldn't look him in the eye? what was up with his body language), BUT he needed to disqualify Obama as CiC tonite, and that didn't happen.

Wrongo Cal80.  Obama agreed with McCain exaclty twice, demonstrating his ability to be bi-partisan.  

McCain, he was full of surprises (Sarah Palin?  Will he debate or won't he?)

I didn't realize that McCain was leading with a spending freeze -- on everything except the military.  Is this policy making on the fly?

Will McCain be investigating the torture that he now acknowledges the Bush administration did?

Why couldn't McCain ever look at Obama?

Wrongo Cal80.  Obama agreed with McCain exaclty twice, demonstrating his ability to be bi-partisan.  

McCain, he was full of surprises (Sarah Palin?  Will he debate or won't he?)

I didn't realize that McCain was leading with a spending freeze -- on everything except the military.  Is this policy making on the fly?

Will McCain be investigating the torture that he now acknowledges the Bush administration did?

Why couldn't McCain ever look at Obama?

A very slim lead for Obama and a general -- and perhaps, in a way, disturbing -- feeling that McCain is a kind of uptight elderly dude who doesn't really like being the first presidential candidate to have to debate a black guy.

Neither candidate inflicted any real damage on the other, however, I thought Obama, who remains less known to the electorate at large, had the advantage of being able to show that he's just as serious, just as knowledgeable, and just as patriotic as McCain, a long-time veteran of Washington. And by elevating himself to that level, he won.

The strategy is identical to the one Reagan employed in 1980, which was simply to present himself as a credible alternative to the status quo. No one -- even Cal80 -- can factually argue that that didn't happen. And the instant focus groups support that.

campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post

Did Obama Have a 'Bush Looking At His Watch' Moment Tonight?

I wonder if we had a "Bush looking at his watch" moment tonight.

After McCain talked about the bracelet from the mother of a slain soldier, Obama mentioned that he had one, too.

Unfortunately, it would seem that he didn't have the name of the solder, Ryan David Jopek (sp?quite on the tip of his tongue. He seems to have to read the name off the bracelet:

Obama: Jim, let me just make a point. I've got a bracelet, too.

(Looks up, adjusts wrist, looks down at wrist)

Obama: From sergeant... uh.. (adjusts wrist) uh, from the mother of sergeant Ryan David Jopek (phonetic). Given to me in Green Bay. And she asked me, can you please make sure another mother isn't going through what I'm going through?

Ditto to what BHLnyc said. Obama seemed informed, contemplative, and a little cautious - and there's nothing wrong with a cautious presidential candidate when the economy is in doubt and our foreign policy is a mess.

Sorry AB, the offical count was 8 times that Obama agreed with McCain.  Not exactly leading the way to change.  Obama came off as defensive and a follower according to the one and only truly undecided voter I know.  He is still undecided by the way and refuses to decide til he walks into the polling both, but definitely says McCain wins tonight.  Who knows what tomorrow brings.  

Thanks to jacob for bringing a ridiculous non-issue over from one of the absolute worst news organizations in America. Good job, jacob! That post is erroneous, incoherent and desperate!

If the immediate polls are tilting toward Obama so clearly, any "correction" in the next couple of days is not going to magically make crankypants McCain the victor. At worst, for Obama, the debate will be seen as a draw.

Which it was. He really won it, as things stand, but he passed up more than one opportunity to really stick a shiv in McCain's dishonest, insincere ass. Like the discussion of Russia and Georgia -- Obama had a great chance to point out that crazypants McCain's very first instinct was to GO TO WAR WITH RUSSIA (by virtue of his immediate rushing of Georgia into NATO). But he didn't. So Obama gets points off for letting that, as well as a couple of other opportunities, slide.

Still, Obama looked and sounded intelligent and presidential. McCain looked and sounded (overly) experienced, cranky, and petty. And he was pretty blinky, too. (Don't laugh - Bush was very blinky in the first 2004 debate and he lost a couple of percentage points afterward.)

I tend to agree with cal80 (about 8 times, I wasn't keeping track). I think McCain won in a big way tonight with voters trying to make up their minds. I'd say it was 2-1 McCain (earlier I was more emphatic, McCain 10 Obama 0, but I will temper for now, pending results of polls over the next few days). I expect McCain's poll numbers will increase at least 2-3% nationally, maybe more.

tomeg, I recognize that your take on the debate is sincere.  I know that, unlike jacobt, you are not a pro-McCain troll.  I just think that in this instance, you are very wrong.  

Obama had one must-do in this debate, and that was to portray himself as a plausible CiC.  He succeeded.  McCain clearly understood that that was what this debate was all about, and that's why he kept hammering on Obama's relative lack of experience.  Thing is, McCain didn't land many of those hits.  I mean, you can keep harping on all the international junkets you have been that your opponent hasn't, but at the end of the day when your opponent is up there on stage demonstrating with every word he utters that he can bat with as much knowledge and assurance as you, your inexperience line starts to lose its juice.

We'll see what the polls do over the next week.  I predict McCain's recent slide will stabilize and that he might even gain back a point or two.  But he's not going to regain a lead as a result of this debate performance.  I predict he'll never lead again.  

Yeah Jacob.. but is McCain even wearing his?

Here's the thing, despite what the Obama-haters think, I truly believe that many people WANT to like Barack Obama, the fact is that Obama consistently is viewed as a nice guy, but some undecided were still wary of Obama.  Yes some of it is race, some of it class, some wonder is he "ready to lead" ya know the whole C-I-C thing.  McCain may have won the debate on points, but the voters aren't scoring them on points, it's all about perceptions to non-pol voters. And I would say that on the stylistic or "perception" front, Obama won hands down.  McCain just seemed too condescending and insulting towards Obama, not in a policy-oriented fasion, but on a personal level.  Seriously, McCain refused to even look at Obama.

People tend to like nice guys and with the majority of the country pissed about the economy, and pissed at the Bush Administration, it's not surprising to me that people want a change, and no matter how "maviericky" McCain may be, you just don't "see" change when you look at him.  He may not be perceived as the "typical" republican, but he is still the Republican, and while McCain's campaign tactics can guide the media narrative, it don't change the fact that a majority of the country want the Repubs out of power

Those polls make sense to me. From what little I heard, Obama seemed grown-up, competent, moderate and sane, not at all MoveOnnish. Boringly, reassuringly mature, IOW. That's a big hurdle he needed to cross.

I'd guess McC's main tack here on out will have to be touting the virtues of divided gov't and his spending freeze. There's no way in hell either candidate will be able to cut taxes or, in BHO's case, launch nay of his more ambitious spending programs. When our representatives have heatedly given authority to one unelected individual to spend nearly a trillion over the next few years to buy up a toxic financial paper dump the size of Nevada, we're not going to be in Keynesian stimulus mode any time soon.

"Obama had one must-do in this debate, and that was to portray himself as a plausible CiC.  He succeeded. "

Agreed. He sounded as un-MoveOnnerish as you can get, a typical hawkish liberal. This was a turning point for him.

THE POLLS AND FOCUS GROUPS.... The insta-reactions in the polls are not always the most reliable measurements. The sample sizes are modest, and the public is often swayed after the fact by media analysis. That said, the initial data after...

Thanks Tomeg for your opinion that undecideds thought McCain won the debate 2 to 1, this is much more accurate than a poll of 500 people.  Especially unbiased when reading your posts throughout the debate had you having BHO basically dropping out of the race for his poor performance.

PS  I support BHO and thought McCain did way better than I anticipated

Tomeg,

Thanks for your opinion on how McCain won over independents 2 to 1, I can disregard all the polling information that states otherwise.  I know yours is unbiased after reading your comments throughout the debate and your coronation of McCain as the victor.

Thanks

tep, good points.

"Typical hawkish liberal" about sums it up. A shade too hawkish for me, but I've suspected for some time that as Obama matures, he will shift in that direction.

I worked for guys like McCain my whole life - smart, stubborn, terrible listeners, can't work with women or with teams - when I took over the company, I moved them out or into finance.

Watching the debate was a bit frightening for me, because I see the contrast in strict managerial/leadership terms. You don't work with a guy like McCain, you work for him. And no one wants to work for him but people who either drink the Kool-Aid or are paid a lot of money.

Obama can lead all kinds of people from all walks of life with a variety of motives, he can build alignments, he can persuade, and most importantly, I can see him changing his mind.

As I posted earlier, I think McCain did well with those who look at the world his way: authoritarian, my way or the highway. It's not about the issues, unfortunately, it's all identitiy/values.

And as Andrew Sullivan says, about the generations. If the younger vote turns out, Obama's the next President.

fougasseu,

Your post was fascinating to me.  You hit the nail on the head.  I am caucasian, age 59, and have worked in sales and middle management for both large and small companies.  I've seen management and leadership styles evolve over the past 35 years.  There is only one aspect of the Presidency that requires, in fact demands a dictatorial approach:  Commander in Chief.  Even in that position a great CIC listens to all opinions and processes them before making a decision.

In almost all other respects an effective Presidency requires consensus building, both with other nations and with Congress.  It is, in my opinion, a large reason why the Presidency of George W. Bush is a failed Presidency and why Leader Tom DeLay is no longer Leader Tom DeLay.  This is a democracy, not an autocratic dictatorship of one political party.

John McCain appeared to me to be autocratic.  He appeared to me to be behaving as one of my managers from the early 1970's, whose attitude was "my way or the highway".  Yes, once a decision is made, it is made.  It is how pertinent information is gathered, how it is processed and analyzed, and how decisions are implemented that determine whether one has "earned" his leadership stripes.  Autocracy in management no longer "flies" with Americans under 50.  It just isn't effective or productive.  Leadership stripes are no longer earned that way.