Alan Wolfe is a TNR contributing editor and director of the Boisi
Center for Religion and American Public Life at Boston College.
Each
presidential election, the pundits tell us, hangs on a crucial variable that
divides one party from the other. Once it was income, as working-class people
who were union members tended to vote Democratic while wealthier suburbanites
voted Republican. Then it became church attendance: Irrespective of income, or
even religion, if you went to houses of worship frequently, you were likely to
be Republican, and if you stayed home on Sundays (or Fridays or Saturdays), you
leaned Democratic.
This
year's big dividing point, if a brand-new Washington Post/ABC News poll
is to be believed, is education: Whites without a college degree favor McCain
by 17 percent while those with one prefer Obama by 9 percent. If this trend
continues, the implications for American politics deserve a bit of speculation.
For
one thing, a divide such as this suggests that Democrats will continue to
expand access to higher education while Republicans will oppose it. Here one
must note the arguments of the conservative writer Charles Murray who, long
before this particular poll was published, began arguing that they are too many
college educated people in America.
This makes little sense in economic terms in a knowledge-based world, but if
you like Republicans in power, it makes a great deal of sense in political
terms.
The
Post/ABC poll did not provide data on what kind of college respondents
attended, but it is likely that the more selective the college from which one
graduates, the more likely one will be to vote Democratic. Anticipating such a
result, the younger candidates of both parties in the present election
perfectly reflect this development: Obama is a Harvard Law
School graduate and Sarah
Palin attended five not very distinguished colleges in six years. Expect, if
the Republicans win, greater efforts by people such as Senator Charles Grassley
(R-Iowa) to regulate the endowments of the most selective colleges and
universities.
The
education gap is likely to exacerbate the tendency of Democrats to speak in
policy terms while Republicans appeal to guts, instinct, and emotion. If this
trend continues, the Republican Party, which contains both elitist and populist
elements, will move more decisively toward the latter and away from the former.
If the Palin choice indicates any sense of direction, the Republicans may soon
nominate a candidate who never attended college at all.
But
this trend may not continue. When religion differentiated the parties,
Democrats claimed to be people of faith themselves, downplaying their
membership in mainline denominations and trying to appeal to evangelicals by
speaking like them. Will the same thing happen as they try to make inroads
among white working-class voters who never attended college by claiming that
the Ivy League college they attended was actually chosen for them by their
parentsm, or by using use their knowledge of Plato or Machiavelli to keep their
knowledge of Plato and Machiavelli a secret? Or will Democrats resolve their
own tension between elitism and populism by insisting that, to govern a world
as complex as the one we inhabit, a little knowledge is not a dangerous thing?
Whatever
happens, the effects, while important, will also be temporary. The thing about
these variables that divide the electorate is that they always change. Next
time around, the effects of education may even out and the electorate could be
divided between those whose mortgages survived the great bailout crisis of 2008
and those that did not.
--Alan Wolfe