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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
15.09.2008
Looking Backward

Rest assured. The Obama campaign is on the issue of the financial crisis.  They campaign sent out a memo to reporters to this effect:

Senator Obama did a call this morning with some of his key economic advisors including Paul Volcker, Bob Rubin, Lawrence Summers and Laura Tyson about the state of the financial markets.  They discussed what to expect from financial markets today and over the course of this week, how these events would impact the overall economy, and what steps should be taken to address the problems in our financial markets and economy more broadly.

The only person missing from this list of advisors is Alan Greenspan.  I don’t want to generalize about these advisors, but I think that Democrats, and the Obama campaign, would be wise to make a distinction in their mind between neo-liberal and liberal economics.  The ‘90s were the heyday of neo-liberal economics, which attempted some accomodation with the conservative laissez-faire variety. And part of that accomodation consisted in opposing new government regulations of the financial industry and attempting to remove old ones like Glass-Steagall. Under Bob Rubin, the Clinton Treasury Department took the lead.

Anyone who wants to be reminded of this history should look up the story of Brooksley Born, the former chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Clinton.  In Jaunary 1999, Born decided not to seek second term because of opposition from Rubin to her attempt to regulate derivatives – the kind of unregulated financial instrument that even then was undermining the stability of the financial system.   

Here is an excerpt from an interview with Born where she described her experience trying to regulate over-the-counter trading instruments during the second term of the Clinton administration:

Weren’t derivatives also responsible for the collapse of a large hedge fund?
Yes. During the time that I was at the commission, Long-Term Capital Management had to be bailed out by a number of the large OTC derivatives dealers because it had $1.25 trillion worth of derivative contracts at the same time it had less than $4 billion in capital to support them.

I became enormously concerned about OTC derivatives and thought the market was a nightmare waiting to happen. About three months before we knew about Long-Term Capital Management, the commission came out with a concept release in the Federal Register asking for input from the industry and other interested people concerning the need for more oversight of the over-the-counter derivatives market. I was particularly concerned that there was no transparency. No federal regulator knew what kind of position firms like Long-Term Capital Management and Enron had in the derivatives markets. These instruments can be used to reduce economic risk, and they are certainly very valuable and useful economic instruments, but they can also create enormous risks, as they did at Enron and Long-Term Capital Management. Warren Buffett has recently called them financial weapons of mass destruction.

Nominally and statutorily, OTC derivatives were under the CFTC’s jurisdiction, and the CFTC had exercised its discretion to partly exempt the market, but kept some powers and responsibilities that it had no ability or possibility of exercising or enforcing. Although I was willing to be persuaded otherwise, I felt strongly that while heavy regulation was not required, transparency was needed, and some federal regulator should have information before a disaster occurred rather than only afterwards.

How was the concept release received?
There was a firestorm of criticism from the large OTC derivatives dealers, and they were supported by other financial regulators.

What was the ultimate outcome of the regulatory effort?
It wasn’t a regulatory effort. We were just asking questions! The concept release didn’t propose any rules. Alan Greenspan, Arthur Levitt, and Robert Rubin all said that these questions should not be asked and urged Congress to pass a bill that would forbid the commission from taking any regulatory steps on over-the-counter derivatives. There were no hearings on that bill, but during a congressional conference committee meeting on an appropriations bill, an amendment was added preventing the commission from taking any action on over-the-counter derivatives for six months. This occurred within a month after Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse!

I thought it was very bad policy, but on the other hand it was Congress’s decision to make, and having made that decision Congress relieved the commission of its responsibility, so that Enron, for example, became the Congress’s responsibility, not the commission’s.

What is the relevance of all this?  First of all, derivatives are part of the same problem as subprime mortgages – they are part of what Paul Krugman calls the “shadow banking system.”  Ignoring them, and letting the market rule, was part of the neo-liberalism of the ‘90s..  Secondly, and more to the point, Wall Street is now worried about derivatives.  Writes The Washington Post today, “What worries regulators and Wall Street is a massive, multitrillion-dollar lattice of interlocking financial instruments known as derivatives.”  

Perhaps, those neo-liberals like Rubin who opposed regulation in the '90s have changed their mind.  Certainly, some of them have.  But just to be safe, Obama might consider looking for advice to some of the people who were critical of Rubin et al. during these years, people who thought that more rather than less regulation was needed.

--John B. Judis

Posted: Monday, September 15, 2008 5:35 PM with 35 comment(s)

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ChanRobt said:

Wall Street, which did the boneheaded stuff that is causing the meltdown, is not a Republican fortress by any means.  Much of the Street leans as heavily Democratic as the rest of Manhattan.

September 15, 2008 12:56 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

No one cares what party you are on Wall Street today, if not most of the time.

September 15, 2008 1:09 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Rubin's part of the problem, as is the rest of his ilk.

September 15, 2008 1:25 PM

GSpinks said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the Republicans gain control of Congress in '98? And this all transpired after '99? And Congress is the entity with final responsibility in this matter? Hrm.

You are correct, money sees no party lines. However, there does appear to be a correlation between which party controlled Congress and the activities in question.

I don't disagree that it was Wall St bone-heads who caused the meltdown; but these guys didn't become bone-heads overnight (it takes many years of practice to get this stupid), and it was Congress' responsibility to "regulate" those bone-heads from the get-go. And not to beat this the dead horse even further, but it seems to me the Republican controlled Congress felt that the bone-heads were sufficiently "regulated" and this "sufficiency" seems to have been the hole through which our economy now drains.

September 15, 2008 1:40 PM

GSpinks said:

Given the names mentioned, and the absence of names of people who are known to have opposed derivatives, I'm thinking Obama is not asking for advice from these guys...

September 15, 2008 1:44 PM

a_long said:

I don't think this memo can tell us anything about whose advice he listens to and whose he doesn't.  The A-list recognizable names are there because they are recognizable, and linked broadly with a Democratic period of good economic growth, job production, and even a budget surplus. They're also for reassurance that he's got vetted economic heavyweights in his corner. It doesn't mean they are the only voices he listens to, and it doesn't mean they're running his policy shop.

September 15, 2008 2:24 PM

Robert Powell said:

As usual, trying to do careful work is difficult with crayons. Simply trying to color-code our financial system by party is a fool's errand, and Dems should know it by now. You guys try it every time, and no one is any more likely to buy it now than from Mondale or Dukakis.

"Part of the problem" Rubin's responsible for is called by many Democrats "the longest period of growth and prosperity in modern US history"--fortunately Obama seems to think he's part of the solution.

John McCain has a long and well-documented track record of bucking Wall Street, pushing for more regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac etc. against the resistance of Congressional Democrats including Obama, who have traditionally given stronger backing to the two companies because they have supported affordable housing--another way of saying "sub-prime mortgages".

Democrats received 56% of the $1.6 million in contributions from the two companies in the current election cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Obama has received $105,849 from donors tied to the companies since he ran for the Senate four years ago, making him the third-largest recipient in Congress among the top 25 listed in that organizations recent report.

Looking at the facts objectively, McCain has a record in this area that provides more of a basis to expect change we can believe in.

September 15, 2008 2:34 PM

janus said:

Spinks-while I agree with you, the Republicans took control of Congress in the '94 "Republican Revolution"...and quickly went to work enacting their deregulation agenda.

September 15, 2008 3:10 PM

luispc said:

I hope Obama's team understands that what we are watching here is the collapse of an "economic philosophy" that took over America in 1980's (mainly with Reagonomics) and the rest of the world.

A "philosophy" (that is increasingly looking like a religion) to which Clinton and his advisors were also permeable. So this is post is right in saying that Obama should not stick to economic advisors formed in the "Old School", even if tied to the Democratic party.

Many have already diagnosed the failure and to deny is to look like a lunatic. Anyone with half a brain understands that. I hope Obama will have the ability to profit from McCain's clear inability to deal with this (he will inevitably look like the man of 1982 on this...) and to stand up as an alternative. Something that he perhaps should do by showing up himself and offering a clear / articulated speech while the subject is still hot and shock waves are being felt.

September 15, 2008 3:35 PM

ironyroad said:

"Obama has received $105,849 from donors tied to the companies since he ran for the Senate four years ago, making him the third-largest recipient in Congress among the top 25 listed in that organizations recent report."

On the other hand, Obama has set both a relative and an absolute record in fundraising from small donors at the <$200 level, and those millions of dollars give him a certain platform of autonomy vis-a-vis the vast sum of $105,849 over four years from "donors tied to the companies."

September 15, 2008 3:54 PM

Robert Powell said:

True, irony. I'm one of those small donors and am hoping for the best.

The potential is clearly there, but a "platform" is only as good as what you use it for, and at this point it seems to me the McCain campaign's most effective line by far is the one that contrasts his well-known record of going against Republican dogma with Obama's virtually non-existent record of deviating from DemoDogma.

September 15, 2008 4:11 PM

luispc said:

Part of the problem" Rubin's responsible for is called by many Democrats "the longest period of growth and prosperity in modern US history"

That "longest period of growth and prosperity in modern US history" was not dued to "deregulation". It was dued to a technological revolution that profited from technologies originaly developed for military ends with state funding.

And if that new technologies market collapsed sharply in the beginning of this decade it is because deregulated markets eventually colapse...  It's studied by classic and neo-classic economics and it's called market failure.

Until the 80's and the 90's what one did, when before a market failure, was to intervene in the economy (in order to save "minor" things such as jobs, housing, farms, etc...). But after the spreading of the economic religion many still endorse, the state was ideologically forbiden to intervene, supposedly because an "intervention failure" would happen.

The problem now is to know if you're going to stick to your dogmas and keep watching people loosing their jobs and their homes. Imagining, after your ideology, an eventual situation of aequilibrium that, if it happens, will happen when we're all dead (playing as a marxist would, when he justified all absurdities after the conviction that, at the "end of history", everything would be wonderful).

Right now, to ask for deregulation means something very similar to ask for deregulation in 1929.  

And to vote for McCain is as wise as it would have been to vote for Hoover in 1932...

September 15, 2008 4:15 PM

ChanRobt said:

AS THE WORLD TURNS AND THE FINGER POINTS.

This from that bastion of Republicanism, The Village Voice:

www.villagevoice.com/.../541234

Andrew Cuomo and Fannie and Freddie

How the youngest Housing and Urban Development secretary in history gave birth to the mortgage crisis

By Wayne Barrett

published: August 05, 2008

Research assistance by Samuel Breidbart, Brian Colgan, Tatyana Gulko, Sarah Lavery, and Amanda Stutt

There are as many starting points for the mortgage meltdown as there are fears about how far it has yet to go, but one decisive point of departure is the final years of the Clinton administration, when a kid from Queens without any real banking or real-estate experience was the only man in Washington with the power to regulate the giants of home finance, the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), better known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Andrew Cuomo, the youngest Housing and Urban Development secretary in history, made a series of decisions between 1997 and 2001 that gave birth to the country's current crisis. He took actions that—in combination with many other factors—helped plunge Fannie and Freddie into the subprime markets without putting in place the means to monitor their increasingly risky investments. He turned the Federal Housing Administration mortgage program into a sweetheart lender with sky-high loan ceilings and no money down, and he legalized what a federal judge has branded "kickbacks" to brokers that have fueled the sale of overpriced and unsupportable loans. Three to four million families are now facing foreclosure, and Cuomo is one of the reasons why.

ETC

September 15, 2008 4:17 PM

JEFF FREY said:

It seems to me that "in combination with many other factors" is the critical part of this excerpt. If the decisions made in the late 1990s were "responsible", then why didn't the Republicans do something about it given that they had the power to do whatever they wanted for something like 5 of the 8 years in between, and the power to do most of what they wanted for all but the last 2 years,

September 15, 2008 4:51 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

"Part of the problem" Rubin's responsible for is called by many Democrats "the longest period of growth and prosperity in modern US history"--fortunately Obama seems to think he's part of the solution.

You're not paying attention Robert.

Living conditions STAGNATED in the 90's for American households in the MIDDLE (or in other words the MAJORITY), while rapid advances in wealth and income for the elite pulled up the averages. Taking an even broader period: from 83 to 98, average wealth of the top 1% rose 42%, while the poorest 40% lost 76% of their meager wealth.

All of this despite record GDP growth. The Bush years have made it much, much worse but we should not let that colour our understanding of the abject failure of the Rubin/Clinton years to turn GDP growth into meaningful wealth creation for the majority of Americans.

September 15, 2008 5:07 PM

GSpinks said:

"the Republicans took control of Congress in the '94 "Republican Revolution""

Thanks for the clarification, Janus.

"his well-known record of going against Republican dogma "

McCain is known for bucking his party on some things, but there is very little to indicate he bucked his party when it came to regulating Wall St.

"... a series of decisions between 1997 and 2001 that gave birth to the country's current crisis..."

And while I am on the topic of regulations, what part of this article absolves the Republican dominated Congress of their guilt? It is up to Congress to protect the markets from the bone-heads; EPIC FAIL.

And McCain's big idea is to streamline and optimize existing regulations, which don't provide transparency, let alone regulation, for derivatives, means he has no intention of plugging the hole through which the economy is draining.

September 15, 2008 6:23 PM

I Majorajam said:

Judis, your knowledge here is shaky at best. Paul Volcker predicted, oh, round about 5 years ago, that if we didn't change our policies (macroeconomic, fiscal, regulatory, etc.), there was a 75% chance we would have a major financial crisis within 5 years. This is a pretty strong prediction, btw, and was meant to incite action amongst policymakers. There was none. The catalyst for Chairman Volcker's remark was the then ballooning current account and trade deficits and the overall leverage (both financial and operational) in the economy, each of which would get substantial more dire over the subsequent five years.

I'd say that's a pretty reasonable person to have advising Obama, wouldn't you? Perhaps a tad better than Phil Graham?....

Seriously though, if you'd like to sound knowledgeable on this subject, I recommend some reading. There are numerous individuals who have seen these problems coming for some time, and that's always a good place to start. For instance, you might be intrigued to hear the praise that one of them, Jeremy Grantham of Boston's GMO (manager of Dick Cheney's money amongst others) who also happened to bet against the technology bubble well before its bursting, has heaped on Paul Volcker.

Hired by Carter, he subsequently substantially hurt that President's electoral prospects by his independence. He was eventually sacked by the Regan administration who feared the same. In between, Mr. Volcker conquered the great macroeconomic challenge of the early 1980s and, unlike his predecessor, has not haunted the financial press ever since. If I had to rank the top five people I'd want advising me on policy, Volcker would go 1st through 3rd.

PS Though I cannot divulge precisely why, I have it on good authority that Robert Rubin was far more acutely aware of the massive systemic risks that faced and face our financial system than he lets on, and from some time back.

September 15, 2008 8:31 PM

I Majorajam said:

PS Paul Krugman does not deserve credit for the term "Shadow Banking System". I think credit goes to Nouriel Roubini, also a Clinton Treasury Department official fyi, but I cannot say with total certitude. In any case, it wasn't Krugman.

In any case, the issue with Subprime mortgages, off balance sheet, investment vehicles and non depository institutions, (the shadow banking system) and derivatives cannot simply be lumped together as haphazardly as has been done here. At least, that doesn't add any insight, (if indeed that's the author's intent here...), nor cast any light on the wisdom of regulation in that space (and actually, I would argue that the issue of whether or not to regulate derivatives is a red herring. It's the capital adequacy stupid!). Yes there are interrelationships, but the problems with subprime can be pretty well understood without the need to involve derivatives (unless you consider cash CDOs and other securitizations derivatives, but that is somewhat semantic).

PPS Its late and I must be tired. In my previous post, I meant monetary, not macroeconomic.

September 15, 2008 8:51 PM

GSpinks said:

"I would argue that the issue of whether or not to regulate derivatives is a red herring. It's the capital adequacy stupid!."

More transparency sounds better all the time.

September 15, 2008 9:58 PM

I Majorajam said:

It's funny you should say that GSpinks, because the Fed and other regulatory institutions have always had sufficient transparency, which is to say, information, to know there was a terminal systemic problem with the economy's credit provision apparatus. Ever heard of the Z1 report? Hell, anyone who'd been given a mortgage in five minutes based on a drive by appraisal and minimal documentation (of which there were many) or with nothing down or who'd been offered a car or credit card loan they couldn't afford the payments on, or etc. etc. etc. will have had sufficient information. Transparency was something denied hedge fund investors and Soverign wealth funds. The rest can be put down to agency issues, career risk (remember "we're still dancing"?), myopia, complacency and sheer unadulterated greed. But mainly the first two. And of course the last.  

September 15, 2008 11:53 PM

The Plank said:

Running Against Sarah: From Beauty Queens to Political Veterans, Palin&#39;s Former Foes Offer Battle

September 16, 2008 9:14 AM

Mozier said:

Yes, Clinton era deregulation should be criticized, but isn't it a little disingenuous for  right-wingers to be criticizing Clinton and his cronies for policies that, generally speaking, they approved of? This criticism shows right-wingers for what they are: partisan hacks.  Many on the left (but not enough) criticized Clinton's

moves to the right on economic matters.  Oddly, those on the right criticized him for adopting their policies!  They were in a tizzy that he was getting credit for their ideas!  One would have thought that they would have been grateful  to see their policies enacted, but alas, it only made them madder, and exposed them as  reactionary malcontents.

September 16, 2008 9:33 AM

I Majorajam said:

Apropos...

www.ft.com/.../aced684c-834e-11dd-907e-000077b07658.html

The Short View: Moral hazard

By John Authers, Investment Editor

Published: September 15 2008 19:12 | Last updated: September 15 2008 19:12

The Decade of Moral Hazard has ended, as it began, with a weekend of intrigue on Wall Street.

Ten years ago, the New York Federal Reserve brought together the leaders of the biggest Wall Street banks to decide how to deal with the stricken hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. It had come to grief in the wake of the Russian debt default. Credit markets were frozen.

The Wall Streeters agreed to club together to take over LTCM, the Federal Reserve followed up with cheaper interest rates, and life returned. The move was intensely criticised, <b>not least by former Fed chairman Paul Volcker</b>, who questioned why the weight of the government should be put behind a private investor.

<i>The problem – according to Volcker and many others – was that the LTCM rescue increased “moral hazard”, or the risk that investors would enter into contracts in bad faith. Knowing that the government was there to help them, banks and other investors were free to make irresponsible commitments.</i>

In the five years following LTCM, the S&P financials outperformed the rest of the S&P by a third. All of that outperformance has been wiped out in the past few weeks. Financials’ share of corporate profits dropped from below 33 per cent to above 20 per cent (it had been below 5 per cent in the early 1980s). The financial industry’s share of the US gross domestic product rose sharply.

In hindsight, this behaviour by banks was obviously irresponsible. The authorities’ actions over the past weekend will doubtless be debated even longer than the LTCM rescue 10 years before, but that is the context for their decision.

Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy will not end the credit crisis. But it ends a decade of moral hazard.

Nobody will again assume that the government will bail them out if they lend foolishly.

john.authers

September 16, 2008 10:37 AM

Robert Powell said:

No one SHOULD assume that the government will bail them out if they lend foolishly. Providing grounds for this expectation, at least as much a de-regulation, is the source of the problem. Good riddance to a decade of bi-partisan moral hazard.

As usual, lefty Democrats have a hard time not looking like idiots when it comes to economics. We've got Wandrey and Iggy pissing and moaning as if during the boom of the 90's regular people were subsisting on corn syrup and Cheetos, only to be even more cruelly ground down by the hated Bushies. This is simple nonsense, and most voters know it. The vast majority of Americans are so rich that the stuff we throw away would support many Third World economies, and has become a major environmental concern.

You can't have it both ways--either the Clinton years were a model of fiscal responsibility which turned huge deficits into huge surpluses, as all the campaign rhetoric says;  or they were the thin side of a wedge of deregulation that has led us to rack and ruin. I tend to support the first thesis.

September 16, 2008 11:35 AM

butchie b said:

You're voting for the wrong guy, Bob, but it sure is nice to read some common sense around here.  Thanks.

Go Gators!

September 16, 2008 11:57 AM

I Majorajam said:

Robert,

I'm afraid it's your side of the aisle that's screwed the pooch here, and history won't have a difficult time sorting that out. "The thin side of the wedge" was actually the Nixon/Ford deregulation of the 70's and, more so, the Regan deregulation of the 80's. Glass Stegal didn't bear on the explosive growth of the shadow banking system that has been primary institutional culprit in this decade's dangerous ballooning of the credit bubble. Alan Greenspan was a Regan appointee. The guy who would have acted to prevent the developments that have led us to this great unraveling, Volcker, was a Carter appointee. The Bush administration responded to the scandalous behavior of rating agencies in the 90s by... rewarding them with an even more exclusive monopoly.

I could go on, but notwithstanding all that, it bears pointing out that the entire stock of mortgage debt in this country FULLY DOUBLED from 2000 to 2006, under a Republican administration and Congress. Now, what underwriting standards do you think were necessary to double the entire stock of mortgage debt in a six year period that FOLLOWED a rollicking 10 year boom in the housing market? I'll give you two guesses- alternatively you can just copy and paste from any given newspaper.

Now why is it that the Bush OCC, SEC and Fed weren't remotely interested in inquiring after any of that, or requiring after the anecdotes of wayward underwriting that were circulating extensively by 2006 if not before? Perhaps for the same reason that he wasn't interested in inquiring after the briefings he received about the impending Hurricane Katrina or the plans for post-invasion Iraq or the Presidential briefing entitled, "Osama Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the United States", that warned of potential preparations for hijackings? Are you getting the pattern here?

And now you guys want to argue that Palin's lack of preparedness or intellectual curiosity (combined with her belligerent decisiveness and record of appointing cronies and punishing enemies) is not an issue. The mind well and truly boggles.

September 16, 2008 12:02 PM

gnathan said:

The system based on subprime mortgages was a system of overleveraging from bottom to top. When the overleveraged bottom collapsed, the superstructure built on it collapsed, too. This problem does not call for sweeping solutions. In Canada, the Canada Banking Act requires lending institutions to demand a minimum of 20% down payment on a home (or similar dwelling unit). or If one does not have the 20%, (or if one is financing more than 80% of the value of the home) one must buy mortgage insurance for the balance of the loan, which insures the lender against mortgage default. The rate for the mortgage insurance depends on how much (less the down payment, if any) is being financed by the lender. If the US had had such a system in place the present debacle could have been avoided.

September 16, 2008 12:48 PM

jwl2672 said:

RobChan is absolutely right.  As one Lehman analyst said yesterday, 70% of Lehman's workforce is liberal Democrat and Ivy League grads from those stalwart lefty institutions.  Don't give me this horse-shit about the big bad Monty Burns in his Transylvania castle plotting how to crush the poor peasants outside his window.

September 16, 2008 1:51 PM

I Majorajam said:

Just a few bad apples, huh jwl2672? At least you lot are consistent.

September 16, 2008 2:36 PM

jwl2672 said:

The market works.  Lehman over-leveraged and gambled and lost.  Their employees lost their savings, their jobs, and their shirts.  

De-regulation is great provided that the investors are well-informed of the risks involved.  For instance, I would never support deregulation of the rules regulating management of pension funds and retirement plans because the fiduciary duty of the money manager is not to be a cowboy and go nuts with risk on old people's money.

However, if some rich-ass oil sheik from the Middle East wants to put loads of money into derivatives, why shouldn't he be able to? He knows the risks and knows the rewards.  The regular investing public thinks that the fat cat bankers are holding out investment opportunities on them with 144a private placement investments.  They're not.  The gov't is just trying to protect them from themselves.  You put more regulations on financial firms and they'll move overseas.

September 16, 2008 2:37 PM

I Majorajam said:

jwl2672, if the market works so well, why is it that that our free market history is littered with so many examples of financial debacles and the attendant violently destructive fallout (and here I'm thinking pre-WWII, post WIII in the emerging markets only... so far)? I'll proffer this one for you:

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." That is not a description of moral hazard, nor a description of our post 9/11 national psyche- another matter perhaps not alltogether- but of the effect on behavior of investment bubbles. It's furthermore an effect that, by the mechanism of investment bubbles, is self-sustaining.

In any case, it's always interesting to see ostensible adherents to supply side economics take the line that risk can be provisioned off to various corners of the economy and not be expected to impact the whole. Unfortunately, this is just not how it works, and we are receiving very rude confirmation of that just now.

When these well-to-do- I'll call them speculators, but their activities certainly encompass all manner of lending and risk intermediation- when these speculators pile on leverage to pyramid/speculate on asset classes, they distort real economic activity and the allocation of resources (think Malaysian office towers circa 1998 and fiber optic cable and dot com startups circa 2000). Which is to say that if their speculation is successful, as it has been in the last 25 years- spectacularly so, (think of the myriad fortunes made in Private Equity), they incite and reward likeminded behavior. Still great risk taking, still more leverage, still more compression of risk spreads and higher and higher asset prices.

If the dynamic becomes entrenched, acquiesced in or even encouraged by the authorities (think Alan Greenspan's cheerleading of exotic mortgage products, credit derivatives and still more importantly, confidence inspiring bailout of LTCM and post TMT bubble), this further distorts resource allocation (think entire Asian economies oriented to service the heavily indebted American consumers), and creates huge pools of liabilities. In this case, the less than virtuous cycle has culminated in a massively leveraged speculative community/financial system and a concomitant proliferation of negative cash flow entities (think subprime mortgage borrowers). Those negative cash flow entities mean that ultimately the speculators are no longer able to service their liabilities, and the dominos start to fall.

Long story short, how many people snickered up their sleeve when they heard that Albania had been plunged into anarchy by the breakdown in a large pyramid scheme? Does it seem as humorous now?

So no, you'll pardon me for saying so, but I don't find the idea that an institution need not be regulated if its equity holders are rich Arab sheiks compelling. Also fyi, financial firms are not makers of widgets or otherwise free agents in a global marketplace. They are middle men. They can't simply 'move overseas'. Save for the prerogatives of a few multinationals and certain trading activity, the combined value of which is relatively negligible, their domicile will be the domicile of savers and investors. Now, if you want to make a point about those folks of regulation, you will be getting warmer.

September 16, 2008 4:40 PM

moomaw1 said:

You want a really convincing explanation for why Wall Street firms behaved like "boneheads" (to quote Chan Robt)?  Turns out the CEO who presided over Merrill Lynch's destruction got the biggest compensation package of any CEO in America last year -- $83 million.  You want to reduce the chances of boneheadism?  Get rid of the grotesque American system (not replicated in Europe) in which the compensation of CEOs is set largely by themselves rather than by their shareholders.

September 16, 2008 6:07 PM

mmathog said:

Powell I'm a 'lefty democrat' and compared to me you're a complete retard on this issue.

Although both sides surely participated in the de-regulation game (kicked off by Reagan), what really happened was that once Bush II took power, the 3rd leg (low deficits) of Rubinomics was kicked away.

What worked though the 90s:

1. Low deficits

2. Low tariffs

3. Low interest rates

This triumvirate created a nice feedback loop (I'll explain more deeply if people want to know, and I've explained on other threads already).

Greenspan gave the Bush admin. his blessing when he supported those massive tax cuts (Cheney: "Deficits don't matter" and "it's our due"), once that occurred, and once Greenspan held rates too low for too long, faith in american institutions and the dollar began to fade, and that magic formula above (which worked well for most of the nation except for the industrial midwest) was destroyed.

September 16, 2008 8:57 PM

jwl2672 said:

moomaw1:

I'm a free market person but even I totally agree with you about CEO compensation.  CEO compensation is a flaw in the free market.  Ideally, the free hand of the market would regulate how much one gets (unless the CEO is incredible and generates more than he costs, he'd be replaced by anyone else.) However, it seems that most shareholders are not well informed enough and merely go along with management in those proxy votes.

September 17, 2008 12:52 PM

jwl2672 said:

I Majorajam:

True enough that the economy is cyclical and that humans behave in herds.  However, it is not at all clear whether government control of fiscal or monetary policy helps or hurts these cycles.  

Regulation also is necessary to protect the uninformed investor; Perhaps you're right in that all investors behave in herds and do not fully monitor their own risks (when the Joneses just made a fortune on the market, you tend to want to put your money into the market too for fear of being left behind.)

As a personal example, I diligently and stupidly put my savings into Lehman stock since I started working.  Having lost a ton after this debacle, I will be certain to be extra cautious in the future.  I don't know that the gov't could have done anything more to prevent people like me from losing their shirts.  The cost of stupidity is high.

September 17, 2008 12:57 PM