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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
03.09.2008
What Is McCain's Strategy?

Alan Brinkley--who is the provost and a professor of history at Columbia University, as well as a National Book Award-winning author--will be writing for us throughout the Republican convention. 

After tonight's festivities--which, Thompson's speech excepted, were pretty dreary--the real puzzle of this convention to me is what McCain's strategy is at this critical juncture of his campaign. During the primaries, he pandered to the far right at every opportunity. Then, after clinching the nomination, he began moving back toward the center--criticizing more and more of the Bush administration's policies, embracing the fight against global warming almost to the point of sounding like Al Gore, and on almost every issue but the Iraq war, sounding less and less like a Bush Republican and more and more like the maverick he would like us to think he is. And yet, he has just chosen an unknown running mate with right-wing views that put almost anyone in the Bush administration to shame--support for creationism in schools, rejection of the idea that human action contributes to global warming, no abortion even for victims of rape and incest, support for Pat Buchanan in 2000. Has McCain given up on the centrist voters that he claimed he needed to win? Is he reverting to Bush's 2004 strategy of mobilizing the troops of the far right? Conventions are not usually the moment for a major shift in strategy, but it is a real question as to what McCain's strategy is, or can be, after this choice--which takes away much of his inexperience argument and pushes him much further to the right than he seemed to want to be. Did he actually know how right-wing Palin was when he chose her?  

--Alan Brinkley 

Posted: Wednesday, September 03, 2008 1:21 AM with 23 comment(s)

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Crock1701 said:

I think he wanted to do two contradictory things:  Rally the base with hard right evangelical on the issues, but appeal to the center and women stylistically with "diversity" and a young, bright "maverick reformer" woman and picturesque family.  And apparently, he didn't do much thinking or vetting beyond that point.  Unfortunately, John McCain can't have his cake hear and eat it to, dividing his VP into two sides, one a firebreathing preacher and the other a perky uterus.  In trying to find the one person who combined the two, he found a perfectly inadequate person.  He should have picked a way and gone with it.  Of Republican elected Women (say, Senator or Governor), Susan Collins (ME), Christine Todd Whitman (NJ), Olympia Snowe (ME), and Jodi Rell (CT) are pro-choice and oppose many restrictions on abortion.  Sen. Kay Baily Hutchinson (TX) and Gov. Linda Lingle (HI) are pro-choice but have supported some restrictions on abortion.  Only Palin, of credible potential picks is both 100% acceptable to the religous right and a woman.  And with what appears to be only that having been considered in the vetting, McCain has reaped what he sown with his disappointing qualifications in the search.

September 3, 2008 2:16 AM

woland said:

Thanks for the names of the other female options McCain had Crock!  It definitely says something about the abortion issue that there is only one Republican woman in high office who can be classified clearly as anti-abortion.

Goes to prove the adage that if men could have babies then abortion would be a sacrament in the Catholic Church.

September 3, 2008 3:25 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

Why is a woman who belongs to a secessionist party allowed to become a candidate for VP of the entire country?  Isn't that an oxymoron?  

This woman is a fundamentalist wacko.

September 3, 2008 6:41 AM

WaltB said:

It's not just that she's anti-abortion, she's 100% in any instance against it no matter what caused the pregnancy.  This is what makes her so acceptable to the far right.  Doesn't matter that any of those Crock listed are far more qualified, this is the kind of woman McCain believes he needs.

So the question is - if John keels over with a heart attack from the stress of a 60 day campaign, will Sara get to be the President on day one?  It makes my stomach turn every time I hear some Republican idiot saying she's got executive experience and would be able to take over.  What a joke!

September 3, 2008 6:59 AM

boxofrox said:

If I'm Palin's speechwriter I emphasize in a straightforward manner her convictions as the logical extension of fixing responsibility where it belongs. That with full attendance of resulting consequence for all. This is an actions and not words clarity assigned to social priority which begins and ultimately ends with the individual.

She likely has a cohesive philosophy as informed by her elemental environment. Kids.... its going to be an attractive message. Its appeal will be simplicity and a good deal of truth attached to it. Perhaps inconvenient but cutting through many of the maddening rationalizations  which plague our urbanian inspired psycho-clutter.

We'll see. These are interesting times.

September 3, 2008 7:56 AM

dbhuff said:

Crock has it right, it was a desparate play to win HRC voters AND shore up his base. He is succeeding fantastically on number 2 but the Gallup data shows that Obama is sewing up the HRC vote pretty well. I think the blatant pander but with a candidate who is far to the right of their social positions is not working. What is sad is that it would have worked had he picked more moderately. Obama needs to paint McCain as Right as Bush and Palin as even more Right. I see even this morning they are making the HRC play with Carly saying they are 'appalled' that Obama would attack a woman.

Parenthetically, why is it that Obama can't attack a POW or a woman, but McCain can wail on a Black man? That was a screwup...

September 3, 2008 8:13 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

Ah, but Boxo - we individuals are *interdependent* with each other in a multitude of ways.  

In my experience, healthy people know that that to seek interdependence is not to deny personal responsibility the or value independence.  It is acknowledging the reality of the human expeirence. You can do both.

In this case I think its aknowledging that the strongest thing about the Constitution and Bill of RIights are thier workmanlike humility.  Humans are what they are, yet we proved that reason and enlightenment pricinpals can help us harnass that in a pretty healthy, workable way.

Empathy is just as big a requirement for a sustained civilization as rugged individualism, I'll take them both.

September 3, 2008 8:18 AM

beukema said:

Prof. Brinkley, your comment is well-taken and I definitely agree, but it's my understanding that the story that Palin supported Buchanan in 2000 has been pretty well debunked. His staff I believe has challenged his remembrance, and her statements from his visit to Wasilla show that she wore his button to welcome him but tried to keep him politically at arm's length.

September 3, 2008 8:25 AM

boxofrox said:

That is all well put Wandrey. If I'm not mistaken empathy is also a prelude to forgiveness. An allowance to the human condition to include self. This very condition is a central theme to the furthest reach in the Judeo-Christian mindset. Full ownership of this capacity the goal. Owning anything begins with the individual. A personal interaction with truth. Where ever it may lead.

To infer compromise as ultimate justification for fulfilling empathetic fullness is simply wrong headed. So as not to clutter and diminish my responsibility to this truth requires I put forth with effort and discretion. The likes of which may not be well represented (either personally or collectively) in the name of unattached largess.

It's a reasonable argument which can stand on its own and frankly deserves its due.

September 3, 2008 9:16 AM

icarusr said:

Boxo: "her convictions as the logical extension of fixing responsibility where it belongs."

A woman who, as mayor of a tiny hamlet, manages to run up a $22 million debt ($3000 per head) and lobby for $27 million in Federal handouts ($4000 per head), and then supports a bridge to nowhere paid for by the people of the United States, until she realises they will not pay for it and so changes her tune, has no business talking about "fixing responsibility where it belongs".  I mean, she can argue it, but surely you do realise her "record", such as it is, belies a credible argument about responsibility.  

In any event, back to McCain's strategy: he cancelled an interview with Larry King - Larry King! - because Campbell Scott had too been "too tough" on his spokesman.  He has rescheduled it with Charlie Gibson - he of the penetrating questions.  Too tough.  Larry King.

Bluster bluster bluster POW - and then when times comes to meet Larry King, cower and hide.  Yeah, that's what the US needs in a C-in-C, negotiating with Putin.

September 3, 2008 9:19 AM

Rhubarbs said:

Crock, Palin was not McCain's only choice if he wanted an elected Republican woman who would be 100 percent acceptable to the far right. There was also Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers of Washington. She's a young, energetic woman from a potential swing state (and with strong cultural appeal to a slew of swing states in the mountain West). McMorris-Rodgers has a 100 percent rating from anti-abortion groups, a 0 grade from the ACLU, 0 ratings from several environmental lobbies but strong marks from the Wind Energy Association, a lifetime A rating from the NRA, and she's the Republican co-chair of the Congressional Caucus for Women's Issues.

The main differences with Palin? McMorris-Rodgers has more "experience," having been in state politics since 1994 and in Congress for more than twice as long as Palin has been governor, and McMorris-Rodgers's Down baby is almost a year older than Palin's, and thus easier for McMorris-Rodgers and her family to have cared for on the campaign trail. Her husband is a local politician's son and a Navy veteran.

Also, McMorris-Rodgers does not have other children getting knocked up by dropout baby daddies, for whatever that's worth to a campaign.

September 3, 2008 9:36 AM

michael said:

It may be hyperbole to call this a strategy of terror but get back with me in a couple months and tell me if you saw intimidation you didn't expect.

I'm 53, hardly at the left-end of the left and until Rove I felt a responsibility to watch the Republicans have their parties. As moderates were black-listed from speaking and then disappeared from the national scene a GOP convention seemed more like a Liberty College event. I thought '04 was as bad as they could get.

Last night I bounced between scared and angry but hoped when this week was over the media would have paid their respects and life would go on. As reporters roamed the floor in St. Paul it was obvious the place was full of a tiny slice of the United States and 75% of our citizens would only recognize the mob as the sort of people they did not like. Not that I'm a fan of Rudy but he gets cut from the line-up in favor of Fred's code filled script of fear and hate. Lieberman would qualify as a Quisling but he would never be accepted as anything but a shill and he thinks Democrats should listen to him?

Yeah, I see a strategy and it's riding on the hope that a shrunken GOP can make a sale by ignoring the issues and policies that a fringe of the right has commandeered. It was a not so subtle parade of the negative. At least we don't have any excuse for not being prepared. I expect the darkest two months where the ticket will claim they're cornered by the media, unpatriotic liberals and people who are out to get baby-bearing women, people in uniform and anyone who earns a paycheck.

In a just world, independents and fair minded from the center will begin to speak out now that they've seen the GOP has retreated to the bunker. Expecting any moderated voice from the GOP to stand up  is probably unreasonable. I can see how they may be terrified to end up in the sights and join the list of those who have been liquidated.

I wonder what Colin Powell is thinking...

September 3, 2008 9:42 AM

BHLnyc said:

rhubarbs:

Not that I pretend to understand what led McCain to his nonsensical VP pick, but I imagine he wanted someone with "executive experience," since that seems to be the mantra this week in her defense. It doesn't sound like Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers would not have fit the bill. (In fact, if you saw Colbert last night, he made the point that since Palin is the *only* candidate on either ticket with exec experience, she should be leading it.)

September 3, 2008 10:01 AM

Rhubarbs said:

BHL, last night's Colbert was one of his best shows in a long time. I would just submit that "executive experience" is a justification for Palin deployed after the fact, not the driving interest behind her selection. Palin is the second-least "experienced" Republican governor in the nation; only Bobby Jindal has less experience in executive office.

(Personally, I think the Palin pick was actually about charisma and instincts. Picking Palin today is the equivalent of picking Obama in 2004; McCain is hoping that he can catch lightning in a bottle with one of his party's most charismatic up-and-comers, and Palin happens also to have very good political instincts. You have to remember that conservatives never win on policy. Historically, conservatives have been on the wrong side of every major issue in American history, and they've ben on the less popular side of almost every smaller issue in the last forty years. Republicans win on charisma and organization in spite of the issues, and Palin is a perfect fit for that model. So is McCain, actually, in that he brings an undeserved reputation for "independence" from the unpopular policy stands of his own party.)

September 3, 2008 10:49 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

I don't consider this woman Judeo-Christian, in the Sermon on the Mount Sense that is Christs truest voice - according to my Christian mother.

As one of the first female electrical engineers ever to work on an Apollo 12 Space Shuttle, she is literally  heartbroken that someone who asked a librarian whether she would ban books - and then firing the librarian for not towing the line - is in any position of power.  Let alone claimining some holier than though feminist mantle as VP.

Pailn is an Orwelllian nightmare, without the interesting part.

September 3, 2008 10:50 AM

aeromonas said:

"I wonder what Colin Powell is thinking..."

What odds do people give that Powell endorses Obama?

September 3, 2008 11:03 AM

aeromonas said:

Not that it would mean anything if he did.  Them blacks all stick together.

September 3, 2008 11:04 AM

michael said:

Congrats, Wandreycer1. I grew up when heroes went to space and it's shameful girls had too few women like you to emulate. But 40 years later we know better and the GOP can to better than hoist up a women who can unload a clip from an M-16.

And we wonder why we're falling behind in science...

September 3, 2008 11:13 AM

r-brown207 said:

This election on both sides is so full of political theatrics that it is approaching the surreal. The McCain choice of Palin was precarious and nothing but a sop to the far right. To think that a small town mayor and short-term governor of Alaska is qualified to be second in line for the POTUS is chilling. Self-respecting supporters of Hillary are not, in my opinion, going to cross over and support McCain/Palin based simply on the fact a female is on the Republican ticket. Palins positions are anathema to what Hillary stands for. Our choice on the other side is basically an academic with limited "real world" experience. There are those who argue stridently that experience does not matter because the job of the POTUS is visionary and as an inspirational figure. Academics certainly have a place in government but I say not at the top but rather as advisers. I well remember coming out of college and the biggest challenge was to get over the university experience and adjust to the real world. There is something to be said for day to day experience which can not be side stepped by intellect alone. Obama has demonstrated great ambition but he has done little but apply his efforts to climbing the ladder. The list of his accomplishments is rather meager. The gamble on Obama may pan out and he may be a brilliant POTUS if elected but don't kid yourself that his candidacy is not a gamble. The idea that electing someone to the POTUS should not be viewed in the same manner as when hiring an employee strikes me as very naive. Not only is the POTUS an employee he/she is the most important employee that is hired by the American people. The American people took the gamble on Bush based upon personality and great packaging by the Republicans. Now we are prepared to take another such gamble on another candidate in Obama based upon talk, showmanship and perceptions rather than accomplishment.  Americans are showing themselves to be a rather shallow lot when it comes to selecting our leaders.

September 3, 2008 11:27 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

I'm supporting Obama on his accomplishments r-brown.

September 3, 2008 11:57 AM

boxofrox said:

Wandrey. I'm going to hold my judgement on Palin. If for instance she was wanting to ban soft porno mags that's one thing. If she's looking to ban The Wizard of Oz as an example of pro witchcraft that is quite another.

I'm fairly certain that someone could build a damned good case against me of whatever fashion by talking to certain people in my past.

September 3, 2008 12:20 PM

Crock1701 said:

Rhubarbs, thanks for the catch.  I didn't go down so far as Congresswomen, in part because I figured it'd be a bit too hard to do, and also because it would further open up the argument that McCain is a Washington insider, tie him to the 06 GOP Congress, etc.  Still, good catch.  That being said, not sure McCain's camp looked that hard.

September 3, 2008 12:37 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

You're right Boxo, of course - tell you what - you find a true statement about her record in her acceptance speech and I'll call it a day.

September 3, 2008 12:40 PM