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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
03.09.2008
Does McCain Need Independent and Moderate Voters?

Alan Brinkley--who is the provost and a professor of history at Columbia University, as well as a National Book Award-winning author--will be writing for us throughout the Republican convention.  

I guess the Democrats can't count on Sarah Palin to torpedo McCain's candidacy. If there is a danger, it is that her speech will overshadow his. After the really dreary and depressing session of yesterday, tonight was very successful, with two good speeches--the other by Giuliani. And I think they made the case that the Republican faithful wanted to hear, and they beat up on Obama in ways that will resonate with the GOP.

But what I think this convention is really trying to do is to change the subject. Most Americans, it's clear, think this election is about the economy. In all the many speeches of this week in St. Paul, virtually none of them have had much to say about the really serious economic problems that are affecting the very Americans that the GOP has tried to enlist--middle class and lower middle class families. Instead, they are falling back on old favorites--the mess in Washington (and who has made that over the last eight years?), the political establishment (likewise), and of course the reliable whipping boy--the liberal media. This convention did not, I think, set up McCain to reach out to the independents and moderates he will need to get elected. Instead, he seems on course to try to turn out the right-wing evangelical vote in the way Bush did in 2004. But he will have a much harder time bringing out the vast number of evangelicals that Bush attracted. It will be very interesting tomorrow night to see whether McCain's speech veers away at all from the reliably conservative message of the first few days of the convention and returns to the more centrist image he was trying to project over the summer.

--Alan Brinkley

Related: More from TNR on Sarah Palin's Big Convention Speech

 

Posted: Wednesday, September 03, 2008 11:53 PM with 8 comment(s)

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jemerk said:

This will be the base out all the way - this really is one of the Christian fold, not a late coming ex-drunk.  Bring out the base and add the Jesse Ventura voters and there you go.  Oh, the old senator will be the figurehead for a while.

September 4, 2008 12:22 AM

tomeg said:

I expect McCain will deliver a most smarmy, avuncular speech in an attempt to portray himself as papa familias of all the good ol' fashion plain folks who just luv luvin' America. It will be quite a performance, worthy of his noblest fantasies, and a mockery of himself.

September 4, 2008 12:51 AM

teplukhin2you said:

"Most Americans, it's clear, think this election is about the economy."

I would have agreed with this a month ago, but Putin's obvious drive to roll back the gains of 1989 has put foreign policy back on center stage. He's gone beyond rolling over Georgia; he's also threatened Germany (!) and Poland with cutting off their oil and gas supplies and as of yesterday has shown, via his puppet proxies in Kiev, what his endgame for making Ukraine into the next Kremlin satellite will be: split the pro-western opposition in two by bribing/bullying the pseudo-reformer Tymoshenko and pushing his stooges in the legislature to launch impeachment proceedings against Yushchenko for standing up to the Kremlin.

In other words, a coup d'etat in best Stalinist postwar fashion. And as in 1948, there's little we can do about it right now, but there is a huge role that US leadership could play, provided we had some leaders with the fortitude of Truman and the vision and acuity of Marshall and Acheson.

Somehow I don't think that description fits the man whose own nat-sec'y adviser compared to Jimmy Carter (Zbig also compared McCain to Reagan)...

Shto delat'?  Then: Marshall Plan. Now: Energy Security long term; shprt term, offer to use the SPR to help offset any further Putin-Gotti attempts at energy blackmail of Germany Poland Czech Ukraine Balts.

September 4, 2008 1:18 AM

JEFF FREY said:

The answer to the question in the title really depends on how many otherwise Democratic voters won't vote for a black guy, doesn't it? If that number is fairly small, or at least small in the right states, then McCain absolutely needs moderates and independents to win. And he won't get that by dishing up nothing but red meat for the base and scorn for Obama, unless Obama cracks under the attack.

September 4, 2008 1:38 AM

teplukhin2you said:

JEFF FREY, you really ought to read the Greenberg-Carville study from a few weeks back in which they revisited the Reagan Dems in blue-collar Macomb County MI. Bottom line, they're not concerned with race as they were 24 years ago. It's an afterthought for them. They're VERY concerned with China/outsourcing/economic security and with national security, and they do not find Obama convincing on either front.

Had Obama waited four years, and set about developing some real leadership and actual _achievements_ on a national stage on these issues, he'd now be a credible presidential candidate to these and other unconvinced Democrats.

Greenberg study: www.greenbergresearch.com/index.php

Exec sum: "race, while not unimportant, is not definitive for these voters. Their hesitation is based primarily on two other issues.

"First, Obama has yet to connect with these voters’ anger at the elites of business and politics who have sold out the American worker and middle class. His inability so far to convince these voters that he shares their passion is leaving votes on the table.

"Second, the Reagan Democrats and Democratic defectors of Macomb harbor doubts about Obama’s national security credentials; many refusing to dismiss their worst fears - that he does not love America or even might harbor a secret agenda....."

September 4, 2008 2:03 AM

The Plank said:

From the Plank: Disrespectful, Angry, and Effective , by Franklin Foer Why So Down on the Community?

September 4, 2008 2:27 AM

Bukharin said:

Shto delat'? - tep

As you well know, Volodya has entrusted his minions with but one phrase to dwell: <<kto-kovo>>

~~

I think if Obama has any chance on the fp and domestic fronts he needs Senator Webb to make several joint appearances with both he and Biden.  Webb identifies with both subsets Obama needs to win.

September 4, 2008 7:28 AM

Bukharin said:

Shto delat'? - tep

As you well know, Volodya has entrusted his minions with but one phrase to dwell: <<kto-kovo>>

~~

I think if Obama has any chance on the fp and domestic fronts he needs Senator Webb to make several joint appearances with both he and Biden.  Webb identifies with both subsets Obama needs to win.

September 4, 2008 7:28 AM