The conventional wisdom seems to hold that Hurricane Gustav, expected
to make landfall at some point within the next 12-24 hours, could quite
literally be a disaster for the Republicans as they attempt to hold
their National Convention in St. Paul. I am here to present a devil's
advocate case that the opposite may be true.
But firstly, a little bit more context on the storm. I would suggest that you all bookmark Jeff Masters' blog at Weather Underground, where much of this information is taken from.
Within
the past 12-24 hours, three things have happened with Gustav. Firstly,
it has approached land somewhat faster than anticipated, and is now
very likely to make landfall at some point tomorrow (Monday), probably
sometime between noon and 2 PM locally. (Although, hurricane-force
winds will be felt earlier than that, whereas the the peak storm surge
will occur later than that). Secondly, the projected path for Gustav has shifted somewhat westward;
a direct hit on New Orleans now appears unlikely. And thirdly, Gustav
has become less organized and somewhat less intense, and now appears
likely to make landfall as a weak Category 3 or strong Category 2 storm.
These
latter two developments are good news for New Orleans; however, the
city is far from out of the woods. Because hurricanes rotate
counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, they will tend to produce
their largest storm surge to the east of their actual point of landfall
when moving from this direction in the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, while
New Orleans is unlikely to experience peak wind speeds, it may still
experience a substantial storm surge.
In theory, New Orleans'
levees are designed to withstand a direct hit from of a Category 3
storm. Since Gustav may not be quite that strong, and since the hit may
be slightly indirect, the levees should theoretically hold. In
practice, however, nobody knows how strong the levees will be after
Katrina. Moreover, either a slight strengthening of the storm or a
slightly eastward turn in its projected landfall position are still
well within the realm of possibility, either of which could overwhelm
the levees.
Now then -- how could Gustav help the Republicans? Let me run briefly through four or five ways:
1. Allows McCain to Appear Magnanimous.
By potentially delaying or canceling his "date" at the GOP convention,
McCain appears as though he is giving something up to tend to the Gulf
Coast. Sympathetic and neutral-to-sympathetic media outlets may view
this as underscoring McCain's "America First" theme.
2. Lowers Expectations Bar.
The selection of Sarah Palin as the VP nominee has forced the GOP to
shift abruptly from a "Ready to Lead" theme to an "America First"
theme. While it is difficult to say whether one of these themes was
intrinsically stronger than the other, odds are that a lot of speeches
had to be re-engineered, probably rendering them less effective upon
delivery. Gustav, however, may give the GOP a built-in "excuse" for
more off-the-cuff, hastily-organized speeches.
3. Removes the Bush problem. The further Mr. 30% is from St. Paul, the better off the Republicans will be.
4. Do-Over.
Americans have short memories, and a relatively more successful
response to Gustav could allow the GOP to argue that it has redeemed
itself for the mistake of Katrina.
5. Crisis Mentality May Benefit McCain.
By appearing in New Orleans, and perhaps even delivering his acceptance
speech from there, McCain will have the opportunity to appear
"presidential". Rather than asserting to that he is ready to lead -- an
assertion that was undermined the the selection of Palin -- he may hope
to give the appearance of actually demonstrating such leadership.
This
is not to say that there aren't risks to the Republicans. There is a
fine line between responding to tragedy and appearing to exploit it,
and any gaffes by McCain, Palin or Bush could quickly alter the
narrative. Gustav has yet to pass through the Gulf of Mexico's oil
platforms, and any sort of spill could substantially undermine support
for their offshore drilling initiatives. Finally, there is an
opportunity cost involved. Although the Republicans may appear to be
effective in responding to Gustav, they may not be able to emphasize
certain other themes which might also have been effective uses of their
free national airtime.
What should the Democrats to in response?
They face some of the same risks that the Republicans do in terms of
appearing to exploiting tragedy -- at present, in fact, Mr. Obama
appears inclined to avoid creating a political spectacle of any kind on
the Gulf Coast. However, it is imperative that they emphasize McCain's marginal track record
on hurricane-relief and hurricane-protection measures. A riskier tact,
which would probably need to be carried out through
carefully-disciplined surrogates, would be to suggest that McCain only
cares about such disasters when it is politically opportune for him to
do so. Alternatively, Obama could attempt to preempt McCain by
championing bipartisan relief and recovery efforts -- whether carried
out through legislation or other means like volutneerism -- and asking
(or challenging) McCain to join him.
--Nate Silver