but it's also a strategy (in this case a necessity--McCain had no better timing option for VP rollout) designed to keep any possible Obama bounce closer to earth, to prevent the CW from at least tentatively proclaiming He's Back on the Road to Landslide. They're all about winning the cycle, and in a zen way, living in the moment, there's tangible value to that. The greater number of days you remain only 2 points apart (in the avg.), the greater chance you have of winning the election. Behind that tactic, of course, they've shown no strategy at all. Palin confirms that.

Palin hits a number of buttons. Apart from appealing to women, the new imagery of the McCain-Palin ticket actually makes them seem fresher and newer than Obama-Biden. This takes the "change" issue away from Obama to some significant degeree. The danger to McCain is that they may look too fresh, but that will probably play out in terms of how well Palin does when she speaks and answers questions in the days and weeks ahead. But she is not a lightweight.

Eos,

-- Apart from appealing to women...

www.fivethirtyeight.com/.../women-more-skeptical-of-palin-than-men.html

-- But she is not a lightweight.

I haven't yet seen any evidence that she's not a lightweight when it comes to national issues. In fact, what I've seen indicates that she probably is. But I guess we'll find out -- the fact is she has yet to be vetted -- but she will be soon.

Eos,

You have to be kidding.

This pick stinks of desperation. And stupidity. Nobody is coming down with this hail mary. The woman's major accomplishment was opposing her own corrupt party in Alaska, the same party that just put Ted Stevens back on the ballot after he was indicted for bribery. That appears to be a good portion of McCain's appeal, also. How sad that the Republicans had to put together a ticket that appeals to people who understand their party is corrupt and incompetent. What a sad state for the Grand Old Party.

Take a break Nate. You earned it and you won't have any data to plug into anything with historical relevance. McCain got weird and he got too weird for your chemistry.

It will be at least ten to fifteen more days before any poll settles down to offer any predictive value. Unless there is an event which we can account for now? I doubt we'll see much stability in any survey prior to the middle of September. And no, Palin didn't come close to moving McCain's number up over the long term and before the end of September she may prove to be his worst move.

No, this isn't baseball and no team would inject a Palin into the lineup in September. But do explain how one can reach back and find a similar game-changer which can compare to Mrs. Moose.

McCain needed some offense following Biden, the Clinton Unity and the convention. He'll end up with something offensive. I think he'll be defending this offense and Barack won't need to say a word.

Jeeze, a VP less qualified than me?

The GOP may lack depth but this is ridiculous.

Sarah Palin is the single most irresponsible pick by a candidate of either party in my 63 years on this planet. Moreover, the idea that she will appeal to Hillary voters is laughable. This is a woman who thinks that victims of rape or incest must carry a fetus to delivery, irrespective of the health of the woman or the fetus. She also believes that creationism should be taught in biology classes, I would assume along side teaching "alternative" theories like astrology in physics, voddoo in medicine, Islamist sharia in law schools, and alchemy in chemistry classes. As a former educator who has a Ph.D., this is frightening for those of us concerned with ensuring our kids can compete in a global economy with other first world nations.

Finally, as my son wrote today, "I had to have three interviews to work at Outback Steakhouse cleaning tables during college and John McCain only interviewed Sarah Palin once to be a heartbeat away from a man 72 years old who has melanoma. This is frightening."

When asked on Friday what she thought of McCain's "Iraq Policy", Ms. Palin said, "I haven't given it a lot of thought." If that doesn't scare the hell out of any rational person, I don't know what does.

diogeron said:   "Sarah Palin is the single most irresponsible pick by a candidate of either party in my 63 years on this planet."

Why does every fricking Obama supporter sound like he or she is reading from the same "fact sheet" paper put out by his campaign?

"When asked on Friday what she thought of McCain's "Iraq Policy", Ms. Palin said, "I haven't given it a lot of thought." If that doesn't scare the hell out of any rational person, I don't know what does."

Doesn't scare me in the least. It would scare me more if she pretended to know about an issue that she doesn't know about.

She'll learn about Iraq soon enough, which is more than I can say about Obama and his supporters who think they already know everything about everything and have nothing more to learn.

bjhudson:

The difference in the male/female support for Palin at this point results from the greater support for McCain among men and the slightly greater support for Obama among women. The issue is not absolute nubers, but the marginal effect. The key is how many of the undecided Hillary supporters she draws to McCain and how much she contributes to holding the Hillary supporters who have already decided to vote for McCain.

jacksondyer:

The reaction from the Obama supporters has been very oddly heated and strident. It reminds me of their reaction to and antagonism toward Hillary. It feels as though they are anxious to ward off an unexpected danger and also to reassure themselves. It also feels a bit like they think McCain has somehow invaded their territory by picking Palin., In fact, I guess he did cut into their convention bounce as well as their franchise on "new and exciting and inexperienced."

I think McCain would not have picked Palin if the Dems had nominated Hillary or Obama had picked Hillary for the VP nomination.

I agree completely with Diogeron, although I am an inexperienced 56 year-old about to vote in my tenth presidential election.  I have not received any guidance from the Obama campaign with respect to Gov. Palin (or any other issue), but the cynicism inherent in such a choice is amazing.       Ignorance is neither a gift nor a blessing.

Strident? I'd describe it closer to delighted. This pick undercuts the only effective attack McCain had against Obama. It's a desperate gamble to reverse women breaking to Obama. It's insulting and dumb. It also doesn't say much about McCain's judgement that he picks someone that will be a liability.

And Eos, no duo with a 73 year-old Republican at the top of the ticket is going to be making a play on the "New and exciting" label.

Get over Hillary losing, the victim shtick is getting old.

How ludicrous for some of the posters to consider McCain’s pick as cynical! VP candidates are chosen because they bring to the ticket one or more strengths such as a good reputation, a resume of accomplishments, the ability to shore up support in a home state, or an appeal to the party’s base or outsiders. Of course, Palin is an unknown, except to those of us who were hoping beyond hope that McCain would pick her. But her accomplishments are particularly admirable: She brought down a corrupt good ol’ boy network and defeated the incumbent Democratic governor in 2006 when Democrats were enjoying popularity; she killed off pork-barrel spending in her state, including the wasteful Bridge to Nowhere project; curbed the dominance of the three major oil companies in that state and is bringing in competition for a proposed pipeline; made sure important agricultural industries such as dairy farmers were treated fairly and retained proper protection; and that extra revenues she gained for the state were shared amongst all Alaskans.  (Now exactly what has Obama accomplished?  I know he tried… And that is what can be said about the "top" of the Democratic ticket.)

Palin is a conservative reformer; she’s as much of a maverick as McCain has been in any year. Part of the difference in the poll numbers between McCain and Obama are due to Republicans who were shaky about a McCain candidacy for a variety of reasons and wayward Independents who voted for Bush. With his choice of Palin, McCain now has a better chance than he did two weeks ago of bringing those voters back and has injected enthusiasm into the base just before the Republican convention. Republican women are thrilled—I mean THRILLED with his choice of Palin. And she also appeals to conservative women who are pro-choice but not single issue voters.

It’s about the base, guys, the base—the very thing that has troubled a McCain candidacy all along. If you energize your base, the enthusiasm has potential to spread outside of it. Far from cynical, this has hope with substance written all over it.

jacksondyer wrote, "Why does every fricking Obama supporter sound like he or she is reading from the same "fact sheet" paper put out by his campaign?"

Bill Veeck said, "What can I do, I asked myself, that is so spectacular that no one will be able to say he had seen it before? The answer was perfectly obvious. I would send a midget up to bat."

Well Jack, you know the reaction and no one relied on talking points for their opinion. When the goal is to create a sensation even the most unenlightened will be able to detect when it crosses the line and becomes a farce.

Darn, I didn't get my talking points either.  Am I out of the loop?  I had to arrive on my own at the conclusion that the Church Lady from Alaska is about as ready to be President as Harriet Miers was to be a Supreme Court Justice.  

Women are definitely ready to lead in this country, have been for a long time, but I'm thinking of people like Clinton, Bader-Ginsburg, Day O'Connor, Albright, and well, ok, Rice.  Not under-qualified-for-the-job hackettes like Miers, Palin, or Goodling.

Sapphirelion misses the point.  Of course McCain had to satisfy the socially conservative base of the republican party; that was a given.  But in order to choose Palin MCCain necessarily rejected more experienced candidates who also would have satisfied the base.  Why?  Did McCain opt to sacrifice experience for gender?  Was his choice made with an eye toward disaffected Clinton supporters?  I'm not surprised that socially conservative republican are THRILLED........

Back on the original subject of the post...poll bounces and who stomped on who...Nate, does your numerical wizardry take into account that this was the first weekend of college football season, and an awful lot of folks put all their attention there, maybe including a lot of otherwise politically aware people who were just glad for a break from all the madness?

Just wondering.