Sigh.  

I predict that John McCain will come to regret his decision on Palin.  I think possibly the most effective line of attack Obama has on McCain--the groundwork for which Obama laid in his acceptance speech--is that McCain is unserious.  The blatant, short term instrumentality of the Palin pick only serves to reinforce that impression.  That he could give the nod to someone who holds such a fringe view on climate change proves that either McCain is not serious about climate change or that he was not serious about his VP pick.

An aside: What do people think about the visuals?  I have a hunch McCain picked Palin because she was the only potential running mate who's shorter than he is.  If so, I think it might backfire.  Sure, he won't  have Mitt towering over him, but Palin's youth and beauty contrast starkly with McCain's jowly, scarred mug.  She makes him look even older than 72.  Standing side by side, they remind me of nothing so much as your standard odd-couple local news anchor team.

This is a common refrain among Alaska Republicans. Not surprising at all. After all, if it is not man-made, then you don't have to change anything except as required by nature (you must adapt when nature demands it). But if it is man-made, or in part man-made, then you are compelled to change in ways that may be difficult, or anathema to conservative ideology.

Unbelievable. I might leave the country if McCain wins -- not out of spite over the election, but out of deep, deep fear.

Deep, deep fear is supposed to make you want to vote for Republicans, who will protect you.

Well, when push comes to shove, who can condemn an Alaskan for being pro-global warming?

What JEFF said, above.

Since John McCain announced Sarah Palin as his VP pick, we've had quite a bit to say here at TNR

I think that McCain's strategy with Palin was to select a woman so woefully unqualified that the media and the Obama campaign can't help but attack her credentials. Then, McCain can cry "SEXISM!" and win over those precious, precious disaffected Hillary voters.

The plan is already starting to play out. On Larry King today, a female McCain adviser demanded that King and James Carville (the segment's other guest) quit "dismissing" Palin and her achievements.

willpastor, the pro-Global Warming argument has been made in letters to the editor in local papers, including assertions that obviously it would be good for agriculture. Wishful thinking.

I'm a woman and anyone who denies global warming is man made and wants creationism taught in schools deserves to be dismissed - where is Hillary and other Democratic women saying the same thing?  

Women can't hide their idiocy and irresponsible behavior behind the struggles of their gender, its sexist and sets us back.  Iif you're dumb, you're dumb.

As a woman, and as a person, holy crap, this woman cannot be second-in-line for the presidency.

Wandrey, as usual, you're right. Hillary, come out, come out, wherever you are!

She does seem very nice, however. (Sarah Palin, that is. Not Hillary). I wouldn't mind having lunch with her. It's just the whole entrusting my future to someone who who is clearly thoughtless on issues of extreme importance. She seems to accept the right-wing party line if she happens to know what it is.

Hey Ep (the baby OK?) - you're right too as always :)

Those two things (the global warming denying and the creationism in schools) just so happened to be my personal favorites in the far right line up.  Let's add beating up on gay folk and a phony, hokey adoration of what they think Israel is and you have the makings of an arugula eater's rationale for an inablity to t ake these people seriously -

Like I said on another thread - they sort of get me in touch with my inner Chistopher Hitchens.

Off to get my four year old's hair cut...btw: how this woman is supposed to run the free world with five kids is beyond me.  I kind of don't want to touch that one, but I can't help it.

aero, I actually found the visuals very effective. She softens McCain's image as a Washington insider, as an old man, and as your standard white guy running for president (meanwhile she simultaneously shores him up with social conservatives, rural voters, and possibly women - the lady's from central casting).

"...how this woman is supposed to run the free world with five kids is beyond me..."

A: She isn't supposed to run the free world--or anything else for that matter.  She's supposed to bat her big, brown eyes and parade around with her five kids and somehow thereby give McCain the edge he so desperately needs.  And if by a miracle McCain wins, she's to sit down and shut up.

P.S. As of Thursday morning, my confidence in an Obama victory in November had been significantly eroded.  August was cruel indeed for a yellow dog such as me.  But the past two days have turned it all around.  Obama has defined where he means to lead the country and what's more to define his opponent as someone who won't lead the country anywhere, and McCain's veep nod communicates nothing so clearly as the idea that McCain knows he's in deep shit.  Palin can only be read as a roll of the dice, as a potential game-changer.  You only need to change the game if you're losing the game you're in.

Their is a simple solution for this.  Get the press to do it's job, for once.

Just get someone (Jay Carney?) to ask *McCain* if he believes that creationism should be taught as science, then ask him if he believes that global warming is man-made.  If he says "no," then, just say . . . well, you can take it from there.

aero,

You may be right in the opening for Obama, but he's got to play it carefully (and his comments Friday showed that he is, so far). Let the implications of the Palin nod speak for itself, and with a few subtle pushes in the right direction, voters may come to their own conclusions - as long as Obama keeps attacking McCain's judgement on other grounds. Because, let's face it, those batting big, brown eyes and five kids are pretty effective.

Governor of Alaska? Democrats need to put that in context. The population of the largest state is less than 700,000. It would barely crack the ranking of Top 20 Cities, behind Indianapolis, Columbus and Austin.

Yes it is large, (twice the size of Texas, as large as the largest three states combined...bla, bla,). But 65% is under Federal Land Management.

Since McCain admits to only meeting her twice (at least he remembered) I doubt he could claim to know her well. But the GOP was clever to choose a sympathetic character because it will be more difficult to label his choice as a gimmick.  It will be interesting to see how she's viewed after a few days when the initial sensation or surprise fades. One should never underestimate or dismiss the competition and Obama is unlikely to engage in identity politics. But journalists who have a soft spot for McCain will have to decide if their admiration for his legend exempts him from scrutiny over this decision. Palin's political philosophy is far to the right of McCain's, it doesn't speak well of his intent to reach out to moderates.

I don't doubt this move has the potential to be a game-changer but that term can apply to the most extreme positive or negative sense of the term. She is both an easy and difficult target. The GOP gamble is with only two months till the election the will Democrats waste their time trying to define her or they will regret if they don't.

Wandrey -- the baby is adorable, and the world's fastest crawler! How are your kids?

And, I have to wonder about the parenting thing, too. Even I can't balance work and child-rearing, and my job leaves me approximately 253, 457, 982nd in line for the presidency. The answer must be that she will simply not be able to devote any time to her very young child. Which is really not much of our business, but rather sad.

I agree with Charles Foster Kane. I think the Dems have to give her enough rope, and she will almost certainly hang herself. They can't attack directly such a likeable person.

epicciuto, I think I've been overusing the rope reference regarding McCain & it dawned on me I may be accused of trying to play the noose card.

If this is enough to scuttle her being VP then I'll be so proud of America

Let's see what the Sunday talk shows do.  This plus creationism should be pretty good fodder for those folks.  I finally miss Tim Russert . . .

As Wandrey points out, she believes in creationism; her views on Climate Change and the Flat Earth should not come as a surprise.  Next up: how the Earth is the centre of the solar system.

So Grampa McCain has met her twice.  This gets better.  Select someone you barely know, who has never been in the national spotlight, who is under investigation for ethics violations and influence peddling (even if the creep deserved to be fire), who has the great distinction of having been the mayor of a city of 9000 (by the way, in my first ever election campaign, my constituency was larger than this - 9000 - good grief), who has been governor for two years, who denies basic science ... and then run around the country and claim superior judgement and "experience"?  

I'm still trying to see the upside in this, other the frat-boy gimmick of thinking "outside the box" ...

Palin on Polar Bears:

"The Center for Biological Diversity, an environmental group, has argued that global warming and the reduction of polar ice severely threatens the bears’ habitat and their existence. In fact, there is insufficient evidence that polar bears are in danger of becoming extinct within the foreseeable future — the trigger for protection under the Endangered Species Act."

And to think he could have had Senator Inhofe if thst was a big concern.

Ep - its mayhem around here with school starting.  I'm hiding at the office for awhile!

I love how you put that - not much of our business. But.

I mean, its there - I feel judgmental of her with a three month old and I'm not usually a hectoring harridan on motherhood, and all the family values stuff drives me up a tree.  Women do do it, remember Madaline Albright getting her PhD by flashlight at 3:00 and 4:00 am while her girls were babies?  

Sigh.  That part is just confusing - but the beliefs alone are enough to have a hard time taking her seriously.  

Does this mean that if she believed "global warming" was man made that Cass would have voted for her?

I kinda doubt it.

"but the beliefs alone are enough to have a hard time taking her seriously."

Wand: her beliefs are her business; what is at issue is McCain's Choice and his judgement.  The should not be made personal as to her, but as to him.  No one wins an election attacking the VP, but rather, going after the candidate, and keeping to the policies.

Cass needs to read this from the NY Review of Books:

"The Question of Global Warming" By Freeman Dyson

www.nybooks.com/.../21494

Wandreycer1 said,

"That part is just confusing - but the beliefs alone are enough to have a hard time taking her seriously."

I can't see you taking seriously any one McCane chose. so why the pretense that their beliefs on any one issue matters to you?

Jackson: if McCain had chosen either Sen Snowe or Collins, or Romney or even Giuliani, one might disagree with the ticket, but one would not necessarily question the man's sanity or thinjk him uterly cynical on that score alone.  If he had chosen Jindal, despite his accomplishments in Louisiana, I would have made the same comment about his beliefs.

you're probably right jacksondyer.  I find alot - certainly not all - the thinking and priorities on that side of the aisle in the last several years totally destructive and untenable.

But on the mothering part Jackson, I'm serious - I try to stay out of that business.  But that feeling would seep up if it was any woman of any party.  I;m not proud of it, but there it is.

I recall reading Dyson's review when it came out, and I was not impressed, despite the famous name. In particular, his preface concludes with a comment about the average time a CO2 molecule spends in the atmosphere, and makes the fallacious claim that it is relevant to the long-term accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. After that demonstration of his lack of understanding, I had a hard time taking the rest very seriously.

Over at 538, it seems that Palin has polled much better among men than women. Nate Silver says it's maybe because men are more conservative. There might be another reason. My husband, as die-hard an Obama supporter as he is, thinks Palin is, as he carefully puts it, "very charismatic."

Remember all the talk during the primaries about how women don't like being passed over for the cocky younger man? Another thing most women don't like -- a very attractive woman getting ahead despite a lack of qualifications. We know McCain met her only once before this and didn't get to know her, we know she's not qualified...I could see women who would not be immediately turned off by the ideology, being instead turned off by a sense that a hottie got picked because she is a hottie. It would make McCain seem less like a modern guy, and more like an old school leering older man.

I could be wrong here. But I have to wonder if this might have been a misfire for McCain in terms of attracting female voters.

JD:  "I can't see you taking seriously any one McCane chose. so why the pretense that their beliefs on any one issue matters to you?"

I can't speak for Wandrey but, moi, I don't think that's true.  If McCain had picked, say, Lieberman or Ridge, I'd still want him to lose but I'd definitely respect him for bucking the wingnut base.  If he had picked Pawlenty, I'd see that as a competent move.  If he had picked Whitman, Snowe, or Collins, I'd believe that he was willing to add a different, more moderate good-government cast to the ticket.  If he had picked Romney, well . . . the pity is, we'll have to live without all those stories about the dog tied to the car roof.

But as far as Palin goes, it's just odd.  I don't think we've figured this one out yet.  Strategically, it seems to be loaded as much with dangerous traps as with winning maneuvers; symbolically, it is a conservative choice wrapped up as a "maverick" choice -- and that may unravel and be ultimately too wingnutty for many independents; politically, yes, it secures the evangelical vote much more safely than any other choice except Huckabee would have -- but will that win the election this year?  We're not in 2004 any longer.

Time will tell.

Icarus - I disagree that Palin's beliefs are her business, these are public issues with my tax dollars and my air and my world she's projecting these beliefs on.  And what does it say about the man who made this decision?  

That he is utterly out of touch with women - and who knows what else - across many walks of life, we are furious at this insult to our intelligence.  This is my business.  How she raises her kids is not.

I'd be curious to see what Mama McCain thinks, I bet she thinks Palin is a lame pick, irritating to women.

Ep - you hit serious paydirt there.

"I can't speak for Wandrey but, moi, I don't think that's true.  If McCain had picked, say, Lieberman or Ridge, I'd still want him to lose but I'd definitely respect him for bucking the wingnut base."

Who cares about respect!

I wouldn't vote for Obama no matter who he picked for VP (and I like BIden a lot and would have voted for him if he were on the top of the ticket), and I suspect that you wouldn't vote for McCain no matter who was his choice for VP.

Had McCain picked someone like Mitt Romney I wouldn't have voted for him.  Would you not have voted for Obama if he had made a VP pick that you didn't like, say someone like Kucinich (assuming you don't like him)?

But leaving all this aside I am mystified why people who like you Wandrey who wouldn't vote for McCain no matter what would waste your  time attacking his VP choice.

"That he is utterly out of touch with women - and who knows what else - across many walks of life, we are furious at this insult to our intelligence." Wandreycer1

Wandrey has spoken (in the plural): she is many; she is women; she speaks for all women.

Wondrous Wandrey....

JEFF FREY said:  "I recall reading Dyson's review when it came out, and I was not impressed, despite the famous name. "

Yes, Jeff we know you know more about science than Dyson does. You also understand the chemistry of global warmng better than him.

icarusr, it's a good thing then that you don't vote in US elections, isn't it.

JD writes:  "But leaving all this aside I am mystified why people who like you [and] Wandrey who wouldn't vote for McCain no matter what would waste your  time attacking his VP choice."

I'm mystified too, because I haven't "attacked" his VP choice.  In fact, I've said that the effect of his selecting Palin remains to be seen, and that imo if the election remains centered on the choice between something new and four more years of the same, then Palin isn't going to add or detract much at that point.

What I was confused about was why you thought that simultaneously supporting Obama and discussing ways to deal with Palin was hypocritical.  It seemed an odd thing to say, as being for candidate X and discussing how to neutralize the potential advantages of opponent Y would suggest a logical connection rather than a disingenuous act.

I mean, I'm sure I could find a number of people on the board who have declared themselves hostile to Obama, but have discussed the choice of Biden quite extensively over the last week or so.  I didn't think that constituted hypocrisy either.

jackson, getting a bit strung out are we?  Marty hasn't posted for what, five days?  Feeling the need to recreate your own little Spine over here where (usually) cooler heads prevail?  

Don't worry.  Have a beer.  Smoke a joint.  As surely as the sun rises in the east Peretz will be back with anti-Palestinian invective for you to laud and anti-Clinton invective for you to deride.  You will get your fix.

I don't understand why you can't criticize the decisions of someone you're not planning to vote for???

"Science" is a broad realm, jacksondyer, and Dyson knows far more about his part of the realm than I do. Which is not the topic he was writing about.

JEFF FREY said:  ""Science" is a broad realm, jacksondyer, and Dyson knows far more about his part of the realm than I do. Which is not the topic he was writing about."

LOL

So, which part of science are you an expert on? Earth worms?

"I'm mystified too, because I haven't "attacked" his VP choice.  In fact, I've said that the effect of his selecting Palin remains to be seen, and that imo if the election remains centered on the choice between something new and four more years of the same, then Palin isn't going to add or detract much at that point."

Ok, Irony, but the Democratic slogan of "four more years of the same" has gotten old.

For one thing it's not going to be the same because the Democrats will take back the Congress. For another having one neophyte following another is more of a sign of sameness than a McCain administration.

Finally the world has changed to much in the last eight years for things to stay the same no matter who is in the White House.

OK JD, here are Republicans from her own home state.  It is possible that they are just pissed off that she is trying to clean up state politics.  It is also possible they know her.

Now, are THEY permitted to criticise her?  Are WE permitted to pay attention?

"She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president?" said Lyda Green, the president of the State Senate, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla. "Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?"

Another top Republican, John Harris, the speaker of the House, when asked about her qualifications for Veep, replied with this: "She's old enough. She's a U.S. citizen."

"...said Lyda Green, the president of the State Senate, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla. "Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?"

Yet her approval ratings as Governor have been pretty high.

Listen Icarus, here in Mass we had lots of candidates run for the Presidency and when Dukakis and Kerry got the nomination (people I voted for) there were small minded Democratic officials who also attacked them. It’s called being jealous.

It happens to every candidate in every election.

I’ll bet I can find Democrats in Illinois and in Delaware who hate Obama’s and Biden’s guts.

It doesn’t  mean a thing. This is how politics is played in the US.

As for Palin, yes lots of Republicans probably hate this  "uppidity broad," excuse me "uppidity lady."

jacksondyer: geophysics. And you?

Lyda Green and John Harris are legislative leaders who have clashed with Palin and lost. So they are not exactly unbiased.

Frey: geophysics?  What the hell do you know about science or Climate Change?

Point taken about Green and Harris.  It could be jealousy or bias.  The only point I wanted to make is that the criticism of her does not only come from Democrats.

I disagree, JD.  I believe in fact that the choice of "new direction" or "four more years of the same" is going to be crucial, and will be exactly the frame in which Sarah Palin or Mickey Mouse in the #2 slot on the GOP ticket will make little to no difference.

Needless to say, as I don't have a crystal ball, I can't say if it's going to look like that on Nov 4.  But it's good for Obama if it does.

What I know about global warming you could put into a small thimble, but isn't her statement defensible?  

Is there clear scientific consensus that global warming is man made as opposed to being a natural occurrence that human activity affects as oppposed to being a cause in itself?

Isn't that Lomborg's argument?

What I know about global warming you coould put inot a small thimble, but isn't her statement defensible on the distinction between that which is man made and that which is a natural occurrence that human conduct immeasurably affects?

isn't that Lomborg's argument?

ick geophysics is a science and therefore jeff argubaly knows about the science of climate change.

I'm thinking of changing my name to ironyroad.

In fact there should be an ironyroad award: the subtlest but still detectable use of irony:

perhaps the irony of the day

In fact there should be an ironyroad award: the subtlest but still detectable use of irony:

perhaps the irony of the day

Hey, no fair! . . . but if we're doing that I want to be Bill Yard.

Over at the Plank, Cass Sunstein has already noted that Sarah Palin doesn't appear to believe that

Global warming, it seems, may no longer be just a convenient liberal fiction. For the first time ever