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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
16.08.2008
Veep Veep: Still Watching Jack Reed

No, I don't have any new information. As far as I know, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed may never have been a serious contender to join Barack Obama on the ticket--in no small part because Reed has said, repeatedly and with apparent sincerity, that he has no interest in the job. We certainly aren't hearing about Reed the way we are hearing about Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, and Tim Kaine.

But it would be perfectly in character for the Obama campaign, which has proven remarkably adept at keeping its vice presidential search confidential, to surprise everybody with a choice that's not been part of the conversation lately. So it seems worth mentioning that, since I first wrote about Reed a few weeks ago, several folks who work on Capitol Hill have told me how much they like Reed for his smarts, his seriousness, and his sincerity. "Everybody respects him," one consultant told me.

Is that enough? No. The case against Reed, again, goes like this: He's a dull speaker, an unproven surrogate, and a neophyte in the national spotlight. Plus Rhode Island is about as safe a state as the Democrats have. (Also, it's not clear whether his Senate seat would fall into Republican hands.)

Still, there's an awful lot to like about Reed. He comes from a working-class Catholic background. That might help politically. He also has a storngly progressive voting record that he developed, in part, by developing real expertise on education and housing policy.  That might help substantively.  He's been around Washington for a while, but his quiet, modest manner make him the very opposite of your typical Washington politician. (He's pretty much the antithesis of celebrity, for whatever that is worth.) And, perhaps most important, he's a West Point grad and former Army Ranger who has become one of his party's--indeed, one of the nation's--foremost authorities on Iraq.  

Here's what Gerald Seib, writing last month in the Wall Street Journal, had to say about that: 

[Reed] began to stand out on Iraq when he was one of 21 Democrats to vote against a resolution authorizing use of force in 2002. Once the war began, though, he adjusted, pushing for more funding for the conflict, and specifically money to ease the strains on his old service, the Army.

He also began a series of regular trips to Iraq, noteworthy for their emphasis on getting out of the protective bubble in Baghdad and into the field for interviews with Army officers, some of whom he knows from his own Army days. After each trip, he composes a lengthy written report and circulates several hundred copies to members of Congress and Army officers. What has emerged from all this has been an intense focus on changing the role U.S. troops are playing in Iraq. He has been more cautious on an Iraq withdrawal than has Sen. Obama. While Sen. Obama has, as a presidential candidate, declared that he would start a withdrawal immediately and complete it within 16 months, Sen. Reed hasn’t adopted that fixed timetable as his position.

Instead, his efforts in the Senate have focused on pushing repeatedly, in an amendment he sponsors with Michigan Sen. Carl Levin*, to change the mission for U.S. troops from combat and security to counterterrorism and training. That amendment has been offered in various forms, and in one version called for making this change in mission within nine months, but has focused more on the mission and a phased withdrawal than on a timetable.

Two other consistent themes run through the Reed critique on Iraq. The first has been that political changes by the Iraqi government were more important than military progress. And the second has been concern for the strains a drawn-out conflict are putting on his beloved Army. Like Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel Nebraska, another former ground-combat man and Sen. Obama’s other traveling companion this week, that concern reflects the Army grunt’s view of war.

Sen. Reed hasn’t always been right on Iraq. The report he wrote after a visit to Iraq this past January appears, in retrospect, too downbeat on the prospects for President Bush's troop surge. But he has clearly influenced Sen. Obama. Among other things, he advised him that a good way to get some unfiltered information about what is happening on the ground is to talk to junior officers and to journalists on the scene, both of which Sen. Obama has done.

Obama has always said he's primarily concerned with picking a running mate whom he trusts and who can help him govern effectively. Plus, of course, he wants somebody the nation can trust to take over the presidency in an emergency. It would seem that Reed satisfies those criteria as well as anybody.

*Yes, I still like Levin, too. But he was never on the list, as far as I know.

--Jonathan Cohn

Posted: Saturday, August 16, 2008 6:59 PM with 3 comment(s)

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mrmonster said:

I just took a look at the schedule of speakers at the Dem. Convention. On the night of the Vice Presidential acceptance speech, there is a list of other speakers available. Is it safe to assume that the other speakers will not be the VP nominee? If so Bayh, Biden and Richardson are on the list:

Wednesday, Aug. 27

The vice-presidential acceptance speech

OTHER SPEAKERS Former President Bill Clinton; Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico; Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana; Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware; Senator John D. Rockefeller IV of West Virginia; Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader; Senator Ken Salazar, the convention’s home state senator; Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, the House majority whip; Representative Patrick J. Murphy of Pennsylvania; Tammy Duckworth, the director of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs and an Iraq war veteran

Absent is Tim Kaine and Ted Strickland. Warner is giving a speech on the previous night.

August 17, 2008 11:28 PM

alexmh said:

RI has a GOP governor. I'm almost certain his seat would go a Republican. There is no way Obama would want to lose a Seante seat. So forget Bayh, Reed etc.The LG of VA, btw is also a Republican. Reed would be an interesting pick, but ain't going to happen. However, Delaware does have a Democratic Gov. Just saying.

August 18, 2008 10:20 AM

jwsevert said:

It seems to me that neither the schedule of speakers for the Democratic convention nor Senator Obama's public schedule for the days leading up to the convention provide even a penumbra of an emanation of a clue as to whose name is soon going to be painted on that big airplane.

This suggests to me that Veepstakes, Version D.08, will conclude in one of two possible ways.

Perhaps, the vice presidential nominee is going to be one of the individuals mentioned by the mentioners as occupying one spot or another on that much discussed, if never really seen, "short list".  If that is the case, the convention schedule will be juggled a bit; and I would bet that the Democratic ticket does well politically and then governs well as each of the folks presumed to be on the short list have significant political and intellectual assets.  It is comforting that, while the Bushes seemed to pull their veep nominees off the "short bus" Senator Obama's will probably emerge from a short but very strong list.

It is possible, of course, that the list that has been discussed is not the list that exists.  Both Senator Obama's travels during the next several days and the convention schedule as announced would make perfect sense if the nominee is going to be someone other than those who have been most prominently mentioned.

 One journalist suggests the possibility of Senator Clinton and explains the elaborate misdirection as necessary to prevent a leak of the type that nearly every high level Clinton campaign staffer seemed to excel at by the end of the primary season.  To me, the likelihood of a surprise of that magnitude seems a bit remote, especially given the former President’s seeming inability to control his petulance.

 A contributor to one of the blogs on this site suggests the possibility of Senator Sam Nunn given the mention he got in church over the weekend and the widespread respect on national security matters he earned during his Senate service and thereafter.  Nunn, however, apparently has what some might call rather old-fashioned ideas about equality and human rights which could result in a significant amount of dissension on convention floor.

 If there is going to be a surprise, the name of another individual comes to my mind; and as the 6 or 8 people who actually know aren’t talking and just about everybody else who’s sentient is, well, here’s the name:  Senator Bill Bradley.  Obviously, Bradley has a reputation for intellect, rectitude and seriousness that would lead many to characterize him as well-qualified to serve.  Yet a few other considerations are what lead me to think of him as a dark horse possibility.  First, both Bradley and Craig Robinson (Michelle’s brother) played on athletic teams for the legendary coach Pete Carril, a man who applied a strategic and tactical brilliance to the game of basketball and had a quality of character that made him revered by nearly every person he ever coached and created a strong, cross-generational bond among his players.  Second, Anita Dunn, who currently serves as a senior advisor to the Obama campaign, served in Bradley’s Senate office for many years as Communications and Political Director and then Chief of Staff and was the senior strategist for Bradley’s 2000 campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination.  As seems the case with most who come in contact with Bradley, Dunn remains fiercely loyal to, and admiring of, him.  Third, Bradley was born in, and still has significant family ties to, Missouri.  Fourth and finally, Bradley has, due in some part to his earlier NBA career, incredibly strong polling numbers with white men of a certain age, not the demographic cohort one might expect to be this cycle’s “soccer moms” but a group that, if its vote is more evenly divided than in 2000 or 2004, might provide an unexpected path to 270 electoral votes.

Now, there probably isn’t going to be a surprise and all of this speculation will have been interesting and a bit of fun but not much more.  If there is going to be a surprise, however, I’d bet a dollar on “Dollar Bill.”

August 18, 2008 12:41 PM