We should know how to spot those - Mission Accomplished.

Sarko deserves credit for doing something at least while Bush played beach volleyball, McCain made meaningless claims to Georgianship, and Obama worked on his tan in Hawaii. I think the French may continue to be useful here, but of course there's always the chance that they will simply work as agents for the Russian as they did for the Serbs in Bosnia. Time will tell.

In any case, this looks like another case of salami tactics. I wouldn't be writing any insurance policies for Saakashvili or his government. Next up, if Ukraine sticks to its idea of denying the Black Sea Fleet re-entry to its home port in Sebastopol, we'll probably see Crimea sliced off from Ukraine.

A buffoonish French leader, supine Germans, a clueless US president and his equally clueless Democratic heir-apparent.... Putin can't believe his good luck.

November can't come soon enough. It's beginning to feel like 1980 again, with McCain as Ronald Reagan and Bush and Obama sharing the role of Jimmy Carter.

Tep you summed it up perfectly, as usual.  Thank you.

I think it seems like 1952 again. What the US does not need is a new commitment to use force around the world regardless of expense and limits on US power. In this scenario, Obama is Eisenhower and McCain is some kind of bellicose congressional gasbag like William Knowland.

Tep, you showed just how blind you are to anything that doesn't fit your increasingly fantastical worldview, as usual. Thank you.

The idea of McCain having anything in common with Ronald Reagan other than party affiliation is so ludicrous as to be almost impossible to type.  As much as I despised his policies, the idea of comparing his resolutely forward-oriented manner of confronting the Soviet bloc with McCain's snarling, bile-spitting, past-imprisoned worldview on darn near anything these days is an insult to Reagan that even I can't stomach.

teplukhin2you writes:

-- November can't come soon enough. It's beginning to feel like 1980 again, with McCain as Ronald Reagan and Bush and Obama sharing the role of Jimmy Carter.

Now that he has "come out" for John McCain I guess teplukhin2you has clarified all the trollish comments in which he berated "our party" for some policy or other not being Republican enough.

Eve Fairbanks asks:

-- The whole tale really doesn't make Sarkozy look too good, does it?

Ignoring the contrasting forms of the verb "to do" which makes a simple answer awkward to present it is clear that Sarkozy comes out of this looking a whole lot better than a President Bush who got hot and sweaty with the US beach volleyball team.

"The idea of McCain having anything in common with Ronald Reagan other than party affiliation is so ludicrous as to be almost impossible to type."

Party affiliation and age.

tep, you might want to think about what "equally" means and then consider if you actually mean that.

I'm having trouble seeing any substantive differences between Bush, McCain, and Obama on this.  Sure, McCain's *rhetoric* is a bit more fiery, which has a lot of people either applauding or cringing.  But I apparently missed it when either Bush or his potential successors had something to say about what, if any, action we should take.  All they've said is that we support Georgia (in spirit) and that Russia needs to back off.  No word from any of them as to how to make that happen, or how to deal with Russia in the long term.  Maybe tep is confusing McCain with Biden (who actually has something worthwhile to offer).  Or maybe I really did miss something.

As to the "cease-fire" agreement, it doesn't really seem accurate to blame Sarkozy for the fact that Russia is basically ignoring it and doing what they would have done one way or the other.  They basically said as much in the article:

"Russian troops have the right to take any actions necessary to prevent hostilities, said a Kremlin spokesman, Alexei Pavlov, including inside Georgia.

He said the fifth point of the agreement included this right but added that Russia would consider such actions justified 'without any agreement at all.'"

I haven't seen the document, but based on the description in the article, it doesn't seem as if Russia's interpretation of the agreement is even remotely sane.  Given that the first four points of the plan were "no use of force; cease hostilities; open humanitarian corridors in the conflict areas; and Georgian and Russian troops withdraw to their pre-war positions,"  Russia's position seems to be that those parts simply don't count.

So no, the peace plan didn't accomplish much of anything, but that's because Russia basically ignored it.

Tep, n.  1. obs: a shrewd and insightful commenter (ca. 2007)  2. a song with a single note  3. an analysis of politics that builds on a procrustean framework and offers adherents a comforting, if misleading, sense of certainty about the world. Adj, Teppish.

Actually, the shrewdest, strongest leadership shown in this affair has come from the Democratic presidential contender whom our party foolishly declined to nominate, Joe Biden. Imagine if Edwards were our nominee now. Hillary? Well, couldn't be much worse than Bush-Obama.

Robt P - shrewd insight on Ukraine. Q's for you:

How would you handicap the odds of Ukraine being partitioned (with Russia keeping the Sebastopol base) during the next four years?

What do you think is the best outcome in Ukraine that we can reasonably expect to achieve?

Where do you think the Germans will go-- further into Putin's pocket, back toward the US-Poland-Sweden-Balts, or more of the same?

Are you still serenely for Obama and if so, why?

tia,

t

Fair enough, Alan, but McC has this much going for him: he accurately pegged Putin as a grimy little thug, years ago, and he actually knows something about the sub-region, having been there multiple times over the last 8 years. Which puts him far ahead of our twin innocents abroad, Bush-Obama, or those French jokers whom even the puppet Medvedev (!) is treating like little schoolboys.

This has gone from tragedy to low comedy. Clown time. That's not a very high bar for McCain (or my guy Biden) to get over, I admit.

More yuks, courtesy of the fearless French negotiators. Even Gail Collins and the other NYT Opinion Page editors couldn't withhold their scorn this time:

Russia Takes Gori

Published: August 13, 2008

President Dmitri Medvedev promised European negotiators early Wednesday morning that Russia would halt its attacks on Georgia and begin withdrawing its troops. A few hours later, Russian tanks rolled into the strategic crossroads town of Gori — just 40 miles from Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi.

We’re not sure if that means Mr. Medvedev isn’t in charge or that he was lying to buy more time to push for the overthrow of Georgia’s democratically elected government. Either explanation is chilling.

Published: August 14, 2008

The BBC reports the following:

-- Despite concerns that Moscow may not be keen quickly to leave Georgian territory, Mr Gates said the Russians did seem to be pulling back.

-- "They appear to be withdrawing their forces back towards Abkhazia and to the zone of conflict... towards South Ossetia," he said.

-- Gen James Cartwright, vice-chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, also said he believed Russia was "generally complying" with the terms of the truce, which called for its withdrawal from hostilities.

news.bbc.co.uk/.../7561586.stm

The Russians are leading 35-0 late in the second quarter. It's hard to beat a quick start on a carefully thought-out plan. I expect Georgia is in for tough sledding over the next year or so, during which Shaakashvili will be given the traditional Kremlin enemies list treatment. Maybe including Polonium.

tep, Ukraine is the crux of the biscuit, as I expect you know. We have a huge issue with Crimea, which was band-aided after the collapse of the USSR, and today represents the probable next slice of the salami. I don't think Ukraine can hang on to Crimea if the Russians make a determined play for it, and the Germans will be no help, but I'm not convinced Russia will roll the dice again so soon. We may be able to draw the line there, which is better than not.

Oh yeah, Obama. Yes, I'm still partisan. Why not?

Speaking from a Russian perspective, I can't imagine the Russians would ever permit a NATO outpost on Crimea. That would be like our allowing a Russian base in Miami. Not just huge strategic significance, it's also close to the hearts and minds of ordinary Russians-- scene of fond youth holidays, Chekhov's finer short stories, jolly old movies etc. Won't happen.