Obama should run for President of Europe where he would feel much more at home.

Although, according to an OpEd in the NYT today, Europeans may get a big kick out of him, but they are more jaundiced about his naive idealism than Americans are.

I fear that Obama's support has peaked. It won't go anywhere but down from here (or stay about the same). As I've been arguing for months, it's going to be a long, hard trudge to November, and no cakewalk. Democrats better wake up to that, or we're curtains again.

Thanks Nate, putting it all nicely into perspective.

Tomeg, people have been warning about Obama having peaked for months now - since February I believe. But he appears to be doing roughly as well against McCain as he ever did.

That said, sure, a cakewalk it wont be. But are there really many people saying it will be?

Obama's not the one who's peaked. McCain hit a ceiling way back when Obama and Hillary were slugging it out, and he has yet to break it.

When was the last time McCain broke 45 in any national poll. I understand the concern that Obama can't win with 48-49%, but how is McCain going to win with 43?

Obama probably has peaked, nationally, in popular vote. Whether he can hold on to independents and disaffected Democrats in large part depends on how he survives the GOP et al. attack machine in the fall. They haven't even begun to fire. Count on every doubt, every fear, every resentment of Obama will be worked tirelessly. MSM won't know what to do. Fox News excepted, the focus will shift more and more on Obama...negatively. The idealism and expectation will fade and more realistic picture of the man will inexorably sharpen. Meanwhile every conceivable slur and innuendo will pile on. Racial fears will be subtly massaged, and not so subtle attacks will be added as needed.

There are very powerful forces working to ensure Obama's defeat, beyond the usual array, and the closer he gets to a possible win the more events will be created to conspire against him. These aren't your usual suspects, they are the same people who feared MLK and the Kennedys, and they never fade or go away.  They have all the money and connections and power they will ever need to do the job.

Just a guess tomeg, you think Obama has peaked?  In July?  I'm a cautious optimists and never bragged it would be easy. But a six or seven point national margin in November means the GOP won't see any silver lining, it will be silver as in second place.

I think the attacks which are already part of the McCain plan were expected. Yeah, since Hillary blew Obama's cover and let everyone know he's black I'd wager Axelrod & Plouffe didn't doubt the GOP would re-run the Spring Season.

But I was in an Indiana bar yesterday. Ethnic, blue collar, white, and union (ex-union...) to boot. It was hard to tell if some were more ashamed of voting for Bush or after deciding he'd wrecked everything they wasted a vote on Hillary because they still hadn't come 'round to Barack back in May. But people with historic racial issues think "Rush is an idiot." & they are not part of Fox's tiny slice of the electoral pie. Ales may have ratings (shrinking) large enough to bring in bucks but those viewers couldn't get a 3rd party to threaten.

But I noticed that these guys felt they were being hit by some GOP slurs and innuendo that wasn't aimed at them. See, they served and they know which party voted for veteran's issues. Protesting for their due? No, don't dare call them unpatriotic. They're losing their grip in a middle-class and they aren't blaming race for dollars they see flowing to the top.  Oh, too many had and lost jobs which included health benefits and a pension.

It will be a tough fight for Barack but I'm seeing his race and age are less an issue than McCain's ignorance of their struggle and McCain's age. One guy said, "At least Obama knows what a tough life is, he struggled, earned a wage and had to pay off college loans." They don't parse every word yet sense McCain is losing his grip while Obama took his dare and did us proud on his trip.

No, I'm not seeing many people under sixty who can't count the ways they think they were deceived into supporting a war in Iraq. The vets? They were part of surges to postpone the end of a war and they know it works...but...

This race is still fluid and we will see which states are worth fighting for. Barack may not win 49 and some of the Unsure will fold for McCain. But McCain needs to worry more about defection from his base as he adopts Obama's plans. It was a hard sell to earn support a hunk of the Obama side is anything but fickle.

I still think it will be a contest decided by voter age and not class, gender or region. Older states will be tough and pushing up the age barrier is the most formidable task.  McCain will help to worry the 60+ demo as he appears less on the ball to people closer to his age.  

But I doubt if anything has peaked except the power for silly slogans to have the same impact against Obama. People are afraid, but they have more fear that four more years like the last eight will wipe them out.  Thirty years ago they might not have thought a black doctor or black attorney would save their butt.  It's not a big leap to think Obama's color won't matter.

It will be tough but Barack is no pussy.

No, he isn't a pussy, and he's certainly a realist. Remember his civil ruthlessness during the primary. He's going against a less intelligent opponent this time, one who for better or worse, doesn't always listen to his staff, who really doesn't have in-depth knowledge of any issue but Iraq, and who is gonna stumble his way through speeches and debates.  I'm not too worried. I think the main thing that has kept Obama with as small a lead in the polls is the "other" factor. And I just don't think that's gonna go away,so it's always gonna factor into the numbers. Other  issues are going to matter more, and I predict one of those issues will be McCain's increasing loss of credibility as a candidate.

I remember how during the year running up to the primaries people kept anticipating that Rudy would blow a gasket at some point and show his true colors. However, he was calm and measured throughout. Yet I don't recall anybody predicting that McCain would have a temper tantrum.

But I'd be willing to bet money (and I'm no gambler) that McCain will. His veneer of civility and calm is getting visibly thinner and thinner;he's so pissed he's not the center of attention in this campaign, he's fit to be tied. Like Hillary, he is absolutely outraged that this upstart is outdoing him . Has anybody else noticed that he gets that same contempuous, disparaging look in his eye as she did? To which she at least had enough control not to combine with a nasty grin. But he doesn't have her self-control, and he never has. That wasn't a big deal as a senator -- it was part of the color and spice of his reputation. But a temper in a president is another thing altogether.And Obama is calm as a cucumber. Just imagine them in a debate.  McCain almost lost it a coupla times  with Romney. Romney was no Obama, and the stakes weren't as high.

And in the meantime, let him continue with the kinds of outrageous comments he made this week. If he was willing to stoop that low so early in the campain -- practically charging Obama with the capacity for treason in the quest for political gain -- and refusing to back down from that accusation, just imagine what he'll be saying between now and November. Maybe his staff think it's good republican winning strategy. I think it's a bad idea.

But then I'm looking at it through the bias of being an Obama supporter, so maybe it's all wishful thinking.

plus Obama's up by nine in the latest daily gallup tracking poll.

I was giving my best toward the pessimistic view of things. I do believe there will be dirt and mud and dreck, repeated tries to pin Obama to being un-American (or not enough American). Looks pretty formidable to me, but then I grew up in the blacklist decade and matured (?) during the climactic years of the Vietnam war and Nixon's rise and fall. My political teeth were cut under the guidance of pragmatic-pessimists in the academic poli-sci domain. One thing I've learned that has persisted and deepened in my political consciousness is that money works for profit against hope, and big money hates hope with a vengeance.

Having said all that, I'm glad to hear other views with different outlook and expectations. Let's hope you're right and I'm wrong. After all, I'm totally pro-Obama and have been since he announced. That's the romantic idealist in me.

I really think it's gonna come down to voter turnout.  It's about which candidate can get their voters to the booth.  I don't see Obama making much progress with his weak groups (working class whites, the elderly) and he will likley lose independents to McCain.   But he picked up Hispanics recently and he can still pull in those resistant women who backed Hillary.  

What assures me about Obama against the repubs campaign attacks is that the man and his campaign peeps are brilliant in controlling and shifting the narrative.  I watched him today at the minority press forum and saw clips of reports during his trip.  He is great at the pivot, recasting questions, identifying issues that people care about and pointing out double standards.  He did this effectively against my girl in the primaries and he'll keep doing it through the Fall.  The only time I saw his weakness here was with the Wright issue, which he conceded by leaving the church.  

This is the lawyer in him, the speaker and the professor.  To me, his narrative abilities outside the grand speeches are more effective than all the iconic gatherings.  Just my two cents.  

If McCain's truly down 2-to-1 among hispanic voters, he's probably screwed. CO, NM and NV are likely no longer in play, unless he does some kind of mega-pander on immigration or picks an hispanic for VP. IOW, he's probably screwed.

McCain's only real hope is to sweep MI PA OH MO with a Nixonian campaign that is socially conservative and economically populist and interventionist. Romney did well in Michigan with his inventive plan for turning around the auto industry; McCain would do well to go one step further and call for federalizing the Big 2.5's health care obligations. Plus support for scrapping race-based aff action, which was utterly trounced by Michiganders in a recent referendum (IIRC the margin was 59-41, despite the race-mongers' having outspent Connerly et al., by s.t. like 4-to-1). And of course, pushing hard on school vouchers, which would throw his slippery opponent off his game-- vouchers are a civil rights issue in urban sh*tholes like Detroit-- and also be a huge hit with Catholics in MI PA OH and MO.

All in all, though, unless McCain goes hardcore populist, and soon, and blankets every REagan Democrat district between St Louis and Philly, he's f***ed.

Tep, I think your assessment is probably accurate, but I would be very surprised if McCain goes economic populist. This is the guy who sits at the feet of Phil Gramm after all, and doesn't really have many deep thoughts about domestic issues in general or the economy in particular. And for similar reasons to why he can't pander on immigration (i.e., a big chunk of his base will be pi$$ed) he also can't be very populist on the economy. The taxcut liassezfaire trickledown brigade are already leery of him, and they're probably his biggest source of money for the 527s.

I think the ad he released in the wake of Obama's trip shows this to be the case. he's not going to be populist in any kind of substantive way. Instead, it's going to be 4 months of Rovian gotchas, and hoping and praying that it scares people about Obama.

Obama might peel off a point or two of on the fence older folks.  Not enough to change the overall dynamic, but in FL (which might just be hopeless), NV, AZ, who knows - it could matter.  

I know anecdotal stuff is meaningless, but I spoke with several elderly people of varied political persuasions last week who were very very moved by seeing those waving flags in Europe (I have in laws and various family members - all of whom are still very sharp - I see regularly in assisted living facilities).  This is how they remember America and they universally appreciated the person who brought that back, regardless.  The Hillary ladies were especially unclenching a bit, God bless em (I hope Obama nominates a woman for them alone).  

Not deep analysis, but it kept happening to me last week and it stayed with me.

The New Republic and the New York Times are puzzled as to why their Chosen One, the Kwisatz Haderach, hasn't ascended into Poll Heaven after his European trip. Maybe it's because the voters are taking the advice of Public Enemy rather than that of the