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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
24.07.2008
Today's Polls: McCain's Gaining, But Why?

New Quinnipiac polling in four states contains pretty good news for John McCain.

In Colorado, Quinnipiac has McCain ahead by 2 points, 46-44. This is the only Colorado poll in which McCain has led all year, save for an oddball results from the GOP-affiliated firm TargetPoint Consulting back in early April. Obama had led by 5 points in Quinnipiac's prior poll of Colorado, taken at the height of Obama's post-primary bounce last month.

Obama maintains his lead in the other three states in this box set, but it is smaller than before in each instance. In Michigan, Obama now leads by 4 points after having been 6 points ahead in June. In Wisconsin, his lead is down from 13 points to a still-healthy 11-point margin. But in Minnesota, the tightening is far more substantial, with Obama's lead going from 17 points to just 2.

Rasmussen also has numbers out today from another swing state, New Hampshire, where Obama holds a 4-point lead -- broadly in line with the recent UNH and ARG surveys -- after having led by 11 in June.

I hope that there is no longer any question that this is more than just statistical noise. Yes, there are individual results we can critique. It's hard to imagine Obama running 9 points stronger in Wisconsin than he does in Minnesota, for instance. And Quinnipiac's results from Colorado are a little odd, as Obama leads among independent voters and does as well as McCain does amongst his party, but trails slightly overall (Quinnipiac does not weight its results by party ID). Our model is designed to account for this noise in a variety of different ways, and for the moment, it doesn't take the possibility of a McCain win in Minnesota seriously, and still regards Obama as a very narrow favorite in Colorado.

But our model is also designed to evaluate trends, and there is an increasingly large body of evidence that Obama is now polling somewhere between 3-4 points off his peak numbers. In the grand scheme of things, that doesn't mean all that much -- it means that perhaps 1 in every 60 strangers you encounter on the street has switched from Obama to McCain within the last month. The more relevant question is where the downtrend dates from. If you look at our tracking graph, it seems to have started -- or at least steepened -- coming out of the July 4 holiday, when some of the Obama is a flip-flopper narrative began to take root. I am less convinced that Obama is getting an anti-bounce out of his trip abroad, and would remind you that there is a lagged effect before certain stories take hold, particularly in the dog days of the summer when the public's attention span for campaign coverage is limited.

The alternate hypothesis is that this is simply a reflection of McCain's greater investments in advertising in the early campaign, something we'll explore at greater length soon.

--Nate Silver

Posted: Thursday, July 24, 2008 3:32 PM with 12 comment(s)

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cthulhu2008 said:

Perhaps it's his move to the "center".

July 24, 2008 4:02 PM

jobeek2 said:

Thanks Nate, solid analysis.

July 24, 2008 4:22 PM

williamyard said:

The Surge.

July 24, 2008 4:27 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Perhaps it's because mature adults are getting tired of the BS. Because it's smelly and it reminds older Americans why they hate US politics so much.

July 24, 2008 4:37 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

Tep - drugs are your friends.

July 24, 2008 5:16 PM

mundye said:

With each post, it becomes increasingly clear that tep is not an actual person but is instead an automated-response program set to spit out contrarian statments containing "BS" whenever the words "Obama" and "polling" appear within the same paragraph.

As to the substance of the above post:  I'm actually not surprised as recent polling tends to give credence to something that has been gnawing at me for the past few days.  Despite all the potential upside to Obama of recent events, the media still seems to be in a mood to cut him down to size, "we made you, we can break you"-type stuff.  I think it started with the campaign finance decision, an issue that exactly .0001% of the electorate but the entire media cares about, and really gained ground at the beginning of the month with the flip-flopper articles.  Due to slight disillusionment (he's not all goodness and light!!!), combined with McCain's working the refs (hey, all's fair in love and war right?), the media seems to be in the midst of a mini-backlash against Obama and that has affected his press coverage.

The past week or so should have been an absolute slam-dunk press wise - the European trip, Bush reverses course on negotitations with Iran, the Maliki government all but endorses Obama's withdrawal plans (twice!) - a lot of the press coverage has been decidedly mixed.  I first noticed it with the Maliki stuff, the WashPo and an number of other outlets bent over backwards to present McCain's interpretation - don't listent to Maliki, he's just a lying politician trying to get elected (oh, the irony) - as just as valid as the blatantly obvious interpretation that this is a huge score for Obama.  Part of this is obviously the press' obsession of remaining "neutral" by presenting the he-said-she-said version of events and issues, but it goes to the larger structural problem Obama faces.

This race is being portrayed by the media as "Obama's to lose."  As a result, the media seems obsesssed in finding reasons/ways for him to lose it (or at least make it competitive).  Every positve story for Obama must be counter-balanced by the potential dark side of this news for him and his chances.  Thus, a week of almost unbroken "positives" for Obama is somewhat negated.  I suspect that next week we'll see a mini-bounce for Obama from this weeks European tour, the polls do tend to have a delay, but it will be less than expected because of the press' "on one hand, on the other" fixation.  Which will of course lead to a cycle of "Why didn't he get a bigger bounce? Is it a sign of trouble?" stories coming out of the press next week.

All of this wouldn't be a big deal if the press would just focus on one of the many colossal f*ck-ups coming out of McCain land the past two weeks.

July 24, 2008 6:15 PM

selish70 said:

Perhaps it's because McCain made a human sacrifice to Satan.  Why would he do such a thing?  Because he's old, ugly, and mean of course.

July 25, 2008 8:25 AM

RichardDuBois said:

The mainstream media and that crypt keeper McCain keep spinning the narrative that Obama is arrogant and presumptous and of course the Europeans love him because he's not really one of us---not like child of wealth and privilege, married to a woman worth well over $100 million, McCain is.  What exactly is so wrong with having our president loved and admired by people in different countries?  Would it be easier to advance our agenda--be it on trade, stopping rogue nations from acquiring nuclear weapons, rolling back al-queda and all extremist groups, halting the international drug trade or genocides in Africa---if our president were greeted with protestors?

When will these ignorant American voters wake up and realize we do ourselves no favors being despised by the rest of the world.  Making fun of the French and the Germans is a poor consolation prize compared to them admiring us and helping us achieve our objectives.  McCain would abandon his current wife and family just like he did his first if he thought it would garner him the vocal admiration of massive crowds both here and overseas.  

It bothers me that Obama has not completely run away with this election by now and this is by no means a poor reflection on Obama.  It is a poor reflection on our ignorant nation.  If Barack Obama was Barry McWhiteman he'd be leading McCain by 20 points in every poll.  The fact is that too many low-information voters are unwilling or uncomfortable voting for a black man with an unusual background.  To me the term "low-information voter" is a synonym for stupid.  If at this late stage in the game a voter doesn't understand what the issues are or know enough about the different candidates histories and positions then their voting registration should be revoked on the grounds that they are not intelligent enough to help shape the trajectory of this nation.  They should be remanded to sit home and watch repeated episodes of Flava Of Love and leave the important decisions to those of us intelligent enough to shoulder the responsibility.  

Obama has the same burden that short men and fat women face-----he has to work 2, 3 even 4 times as hard just to achieve the same affect that a completely mediocre or even lower-than-mediocre person like McCain can achieve.  If Obama had McCain's dismal grades we would never have heard of him.  If Obama repeatedly cheated on his injured wife and eventually abandoned her for a rich, young heiress he would have no chance at all in this election.  If Obama got up to the podium and gave rambling, stilted, uncomfortable speeches devoid of fresh ideas and slavishly regurgitated the same tired, discarded conservative talking points no one would have paid him the slightest heed.  Obama has to perform on a super-human level.  All McCain has to do is wake up and still be white.  

July 25, 2008 10:04 AM

jdcarteriii said:

I find it hard to believe how cliched this has become.  How is it not obvious what Obama is?  

A liberal elitist.  Not that that is inherently a bad thing, but the whole canonization thing is a joke.  We really need a solid moderate leader to face down our problems.  A leader of substance, who is of the center.  Is that Obama or McCain?  

We'll see, I vote for substance (increasingly McCain) over style; regardless my yellow canine heart bleeds blue.

July 25, 2008 11:29 AM

r-brown207 said:

I haven't bothered to read the comments on Obama articles for a while so I haven't been nearly as pissed off at some of his supporters. The arrogance and condescension of such posts as yours is enough to turn many like myself away from Obama. I simply want no association with people who have no compunction about calling people ignorant and stupid. You and your mother may think your brilliant but that may be the extent of your fan club. Have some respect for your fellow Americans and the opinions of others.

An independent voter after resigning my affiliation to the democratic party due to your ilk!

July 25, 2008 12:29 PM

jwl2672 said:

Obama is not the child of wealth and privilege? By mere fact that he's black, he's received affirmative action and preferential treatment his entire professional life.  Let's be realistic here, if he were white, would he be touted as the next savior of this world and would Europeans be peeing all over themselves in some orgasmic orgy?

I am the last one to begrudge him his wealth and position because I believe in American meritocracy and he clearly has talent and intelligence.  What I do abhor is the way his wife, his reverend, and probably himself thinks that they succeeded in spite of the [white] "man" trying to keep them down all their life.  Clearly, the "man" hasn't been doing a great job of it then...

July 25, 2008 1:44 PM

Sirhc said:

Jw12672:

I don't think being the beneficiary of affirmative action is equivalent to being rich or privileged.  Would any rich, privileged person exchange his position for the chance to benefit from affirmative action?  That sounds silly, right?  

Also, your point is wrong.  "By the mere fact that he's black he's received affirmative action and preferential treatment?"  No, that is not correct.  Have you ever actually visited the United States?

First, most black people are never in a position to receive any affirmative action.  That point should be self evident.  

Second, even if he was in a position to receive affirmative action, it doesn't mean he did.  Do you assume that every white person in college is a legacy?  Again, this is so obvious that I have to assume you were being intentionally obtuse.

Finally, your assumptions say a lot about your hostility towards this Country.  I also think you are lying.  You do begrudge him his success.  You assume he could not have gotten there on his own for any number of reasons (some of which I'm sure are not very generous).  

July 25, 2008 4:11 PM