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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
20.07.2008
Maliki's Endorsement

The fact that Iraq's prime Minister has endorsed, by name, Barack Obama's plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from his country in 16 months is a huge, huge deal. Most commentary has focused on the political repercussions -- as a GOP strategist succinctly put it to Marc Ambinder, "We're fucked" -- and that certainly seems to be the case. How can John McCain paint Obama's plan as wildly naive or irresponsible when the Iraqi government favors it too?

The Bush administration and the McCain campaign have replied by suggesting that Maliki doesn't really want an American withdrawal, he's just saying it for domestic political purposes. Maybe so. But that just underscores the point. If Maliki has to publicly favor American withdrawal, this shows that the Iraqi polity is not going to stand for an extended occupation. President Bush may not have been sincere either when he came out for a prescription drug benefit and campaign finance reform, but he signed those measures because he had to. That's the nature of democracy. If Iraq is going to be a democracy, then we're not going to stay there forever. So the bigger story, beyond the presidential ramifications, is that we know how the Iraq occupation is going to end.

Meanwhile, the paucity of coverage of these remarks is inexplicable. The big newspapers have given this story a paragraph at most. Unbelievably, The Page gave this headline to Maliki's walkback: "Maliki Clarifies Seemingly Pro-Obama Remarks."

Seemingly? It was a direct endorsement of the idea. And, for that matter, Clarifies? There was no attempt to clarify, only to muddy the waters to minimize the embarassment to President Bush and his allies.

Ben Smith explains this pretty well:

It's almost a convention of politics that when a politician says he was misquoted, but doesn't detail the misquote or offer an alternative, he's really saying he wishes he hadn't said what he did, or that he needs to issue a pro-forma denial to please someone.

The Iraqi Prime Minister's vague denial seems to fall in that category. The fact that it arrived to the American press via CENTCOM, seems to support that. It came, as Mike Allen notes, 18 hours later, and at 1:30 a.m. Eastern, a little late for Sunday papers; his staff also seems, Der Spiegel reports, not to have contested Iraqi reporting of the quote, even in the "government-affiliated" Iraqi press.

The notion this was a misquote also bumps up against Der Spiegel's standing by its reporting, and providing a long, detailed transcript.

Exactly right. The Page's credulousness about the walkback is an embarrassment.

--Jonathan Chait

Posted: Sunday, July 20, 2008 7:37 PM with 22 comment(s)

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psantillana said:

And as somebody somewhere said, if he were playing domestic politics, he wouldn't do it in a Speigel interview.

July 20, 2008 3:29 PM

psantillana said:

Oh, and Mark Halperin/The Page is an embarassment generally. This shouldn't come as a surprise.

July 20, 2008 3:30 PM

mpatrickhendri said:

Maliki's Endorsement represents surrender in Iraq. To whom he plans to surrender is still not known, but clearly this represents a defeat for the Iraqi people to exercise their own judgement in the running of their country. Spineless Iraqi liberals. And just when McCain was about to wrap this baby up, too. Sheesh.

God, do you think this could get the boys on Fox News to shut up? If I have to hear anything else about victory and surrender in Iraq, I might walk into traffic.

July 20, 2008 4:55 PM

ChanRobt said:

The bottom line on all this is that Malaki, if he is any kind of nationaiulist, could hardly call for permanent American occupation and have any credibility with his electorate.

And, please note, Malaki does have elections coming up.  Thanks to the American invasion and the removal of Saddam and his regime.

Meanwile, no American president, even Obama looking over his shoulder at NetRoos and Kiz, will be able to remove American troops from Iraq if the result will be a melt-down of this very lrge country in the center of the M.E.

If he did, his entire first (and likely last) administration would be dominated by that disaster.  Which, unlike Vietnam's disaster, could not be ignored.  Iraq being a decidedly strategic nation as long as the M.E. is so close to Europe and the West is powered by M.E. petroleum.

July 20, 2008 4:58 PM

mpatrickhendri said:

Okay, I'll play. First, could you explain to me how the next president resists the duly elected Iraqi government's request to remove American troops from the country? Seems that removing Saddam and his regime so that the Iraqi people could govern their own country was the point, right?

Second, what sort of melt-down are we talking about here? The suggestion that the Bin Laden crowd is not capable of mounting anything more than a few suicide bombings is absurd. They enjoy no popular support and, even by the pentagon's estimate, have never constituted more than 6% of the fighters in Iraq. They also wouldn't fair particularly well against the Shia militias and Iraqi army, which would wipe them out in no time. See Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Third, if the violence comes from the duly elected government of Iraq against minority groups - the Sunni - how exactly is that part of the American mandate in Iraq? Dictating the security operations and resolving factional fighting between the government and Sunni militants isn't our responsibility, especially after they asked us to leave.

Face it, this situation - them asking us to leave - was bound to happen. But we have to go through this farce was again. First we pretended that there was no insurgency, that the Iraqi miltary was prepared, then we said there was no need for additional troops and now we tell ourselves that Iraq can be governed by America for as long as we like. Christ, we're always arguing about what happened yesterday.

July 20, 2008 5:34 PM

ChanRobt said:

mpatrickhendri, their asking us to leave is the best possible proof of the success of our Iraq policy.

It's analogous to raising your children.  If you do a good job, they become independent.  If you do a lousy job, they live at home till they're 45.

July 20, 2008 6:13 PM

mpatrickhendri said:

I agree, that's the point.

Time for them to take care of their own country. If they decide to becomes allies of Iran or fail to recognize minority rights is their business.

As a nation, we seem to forget it's their country.

July 20, 2008 6:44 PM

WoodyBombay said:

But, but ... their country sits atop our oil, mpatrickhendri.

July 20, 2008 7:26 PM

blackton said:

channy, we ain't leaving, there will be bases in Kurdistan because there is no way we are going to abandon the Kurds, if we did they would declare independence and the whole region will go up in flames because Turkey will then invade.

and what success? 1 trillion borrowed from the Chinese and $4 a gallon gas constitutes success? You set the bar pretty damn low. We could have saved 800 billion years ago by putting our bases in Kurdistan and let the Sunnis and Shia blow each other up, the civil war would have run its course by now and we would be where we are now. The Shia outnumber and out gun the Sunnis by a huge factor, and would have been aided by the Iranians, why do you ignore simple demographics?

And if you think Iraq will be a reliable long term ally of the US (outside of Kurdistan) then give me what you are smoking.

Channy even you gotta admit McCain's saying that Maliki is only playing politics for Iraqi domestic consumption and shouldn't be listened to is damn weak. McCain has to pivot on this issue right fast or Obama will kill him on it. I have said it before and think that in the end McCain and Obama will basically do the same thing, withdraw from Arab Iraq for the most part and build bases in Kurdistan.

And this idea of not having timetables is just retarded, it is called strategic planning, every invasion in history has had it, imagine if FDR said, yeah we will invade France sometime but we don't want to set a timetable for it ever, we will just magically know when to do it. The reason why Bush has resisted timetables the last few years is because his timetable was such a disaster and he is terrified of doing another, but just because Bush is a shithead doesn't mean we have to continue his stupidity.

July 20, 2008 7:57 PM

ChanRobt said:

blackie, correct.  No American president is going to walk away from Iraq the way we ran away from Viet Nam.  You're also right we may sidle up to Kurdistan, etc.  But, we're in that locality through the lifetimes of our children, anyway.

We essentially have to do two things.  Make sure Iraq doesn't blow up.  And make sure Iran doesn't get nukes.  

Also, the Surge has changed everything.  If bush had followed the Obama plan and said in '05 or '06, "we're out of hear on 1 April 2007, it would have looked like our exit from Saigon.

July 20, 2008 9:01 PM

The Stump said:

Chait understandably calls Maliki's encouragement for a withdrawal timetable "a huge, huge deal

July 20, 2008 9:17 PM

jyunis said:

One very, very important point Chait made is how underplayed this story has been in the press. Hopefully, its just because of the weekend, but Monday morning the Obama campaign must, must, must begin hammering out all of the news about how McCain and Bush are essentially shifting to Obama's foreign policy positions: a shift of emphasis to Afghanistan, high-level talks with the Iranians, a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq (and of course, Maliki's endorsement). The campaign really must hammer out these points to the media all of Monday to set the tone for week.

July 21, 2008 12:07 AM

psantillana said:

Hilzoy, my idol, has fine-tooth-combed this thing, as is her wont, and made the following point, among others:

Saying, as McCain has, that Maliki only supports a timetable for political reasons is almost as bad, since it rather obviously implies that the Iraqi people really want us to leave. (As, in fact, they do.) Again, this raises the question: what on earth are we doing there? If the Iraqi people want us out, and their Prime Minister is asking for timetables, why not just take 'yes' for an answer?

whole thing:

andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.../more-on-maliki.html

July 21, 2008 4:08 AM

GSpinks said:

"the Surge has changed everything.  If bush had followed the Obama plan and said in '05 or '06, "we're out of hear on 1 April 2007, it would have looked like our exit from Saigon."

This is probably the only point where I disagree on this whole thread. I do not personally view the surge as directly responsible for today's successes. It actually occurrs to me that if we had begun troop reductions, we would not have had to spend so long quelling the discontent and could have moved more quickly into what we've accomplished these last 6 months or so.

I know I shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth, but I just can't help it.

July 21, 2008 9:34 AM

scire said:

GSpinks, I agree with you.

July 21, 2008 10:24 AM

bigfish said:

"It's analogous to raising your children.  If you do a good job, they become independent.  If you do a lousy job, they live at home till they're 45."

It's true that if you do a good job parenting, your son (for example) might spend summers volunteering at a soup kitchen and having a part-time job, might go to college, and graduate to a job as a youth pastor, acheiving independence.  However, it's also true that you could do a bad job parenting, your son could drop out of high school, smoke a lot of pot, get some girl knocked up, and skip town to the next large city over, sustaining his habit through a combination of selling drugs, welfare, and brief stints at employers who don't ask for the phone number of his previous supervisor.  Both independent?  Yes.  Both don't want parents in their personal business?  Yes.  Do both not need any guidence through the next part of their lives?  No.  I think the question is, did Iraq spend the summer (the surge) smoking weed and knocking up people he hardly knew, or did Iraq instead do something useful?

July 21, 2008 10:24 AM

blackton said:

bigfish, did you knock up Iraq or something? Have you been selling them weed?

July 21, 2008 11:19 AM

jwl2672 said:

Whose endorsement matters more - Petraeus or Maliki? Who's the military commander there and who's most responsible for the surge plan and for pacifying Iraq?

July 21, 2008 11:34 AM

Daily Intelligencer - New York Magazine said:

Maliki's "endorsement" is a "huge, huge deal."

July 21, 2008 11:51 AM

bigfish said:

Blackton, I resent your remarks.  As for knocking Iraq up, it's not like it's MY fault she didn't use protection.  I thought it would be quick, easy, and fun.  You can't expect me to plan for every eventuality!

And it wasn't my weed.  It was...um...my neighbors.  Yup.  I blame Canada.  ...or Mexico!  Yeah, that makes more sense.  It was Mexico.  I think we should build a fence.  Good fences make good neighbors, after all.

July 21, 2008 11:55 AM

Ghost in the Machine said:

"Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the...

July 21, 2008 1:22 PM

Robert Powell said:

Obama was right about "the surge" in terms of just dropping another 30,000 pairs of boots on the ground. There were a lot more coalition troops in Iraq when we were losing control of the situation four or five years ago than there were at the peak of "the surge", which is now of course over. Within reason it's a lot more important what the troops are tasked with doing than exactly how many of them there are. If we had been doing in 2003-05 what we have been doing since Rumsfeld was put out to pasture, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

We just did what we've always done--start off our wars with appalling mistakes based on misconceptions, stupid ideology, and bad intelligence, muddle through, and eventually figure out what we need to do. The Marines had the key to Anbar years ago, but weren't allowed to work through the local sheiks by the idiots in the Green Zone. It took a lot longer to establish a credible Iraqi security force because we insisted on starting with a clean slate. As Churchill said, "The Americans can always be depended upon to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other options."

It was inevitable that there was going to be a power struggle in Iraq. It's a pattern that's followed the collapse of totalitarian states right across the former Evil Empire and elsewhere, and in the case of Iraq was seriously exacerbated by effective anarchist tactics by AQI. It now appears to have largely run its course, with a lot more data on that due in the upcoming provincial elections.  It's long past time that we stopped fighting a war in Iraq and got on with the business of supporting our allies there to further stabilize the situation. No one should seriously expect that Obama will hang on very long to the silly idea that Afghanistan is more important than Iraq, or that he and Maliki won't work out a reasonable way of working together without calling it a war.

July 21, 2008 5:52 PM