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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
09.07.2008
A Campaign Exaggeration That Actually Matters

Back during the primaries, you may recall, Hillary Clinton got a lot of grief when it turned out she had exaggerated the danger she faced when visiting Bosnia as First Lady during the 1990s. It dominated news coverage for a week and dealt her a major political setback, which is pretty typical for media coverage of exaggerations--both real and imagined. (Just ask Al Gore.)

I'm sure, then, that the talk shows will be all over this terrific piece of journalism by Alexander Burns and Avi Zenilman in Politico. On Monday, John McCain's campaign released a statement touting 300 economists who said they "enthusiastically support" the McCain economic plan. The document had already caused some whispering in the academic community, mostly about some notable and well-respected conservative economists conspicuous for their absence. But it turns out that wasn't the real story.

Burns and Zenilman had the good sense to call up some of these enthusiastic economists--and it turns out some of them aren't so enthusiastic after all:

While most of those contacted by Politico had warm feelings about McCain, many did not want to associate themselves too closely with his campaign and its policy prescriptions.

Howard Beales, an economist at George Washington University, explained that he signed the letter as "an expression of support for [McCain], not necessarily each and every detail of his plan, which I may not have had time to study closely."

Beales said he thought McCain had "a good plan," in general, and that his policy priorities were better than Obama's. In signing the letter, however, he did not intend to give a blanket endorsement to McCain's full agenda.

Professor James Adams of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute declined to elaborate on his decision to sign the letter. "I'm not involved in the campaign," he said. "I simply read a statement and signed on."

Constantine Alexandrakis, a professor at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, expressed second thoughts about signing.

"I would describe myself as an Obama supporter," he explained. "Maybe I shouldn't have rushed into signing the letter."

Alexandrakis said he added his name in order to show his support for certain principles in McCain's plan — such as free trade and a reduction in corporate tax rates. But there are other aspects of McCain's proposal, such as his pledge to make permanent the 2001 tax cuts, that Alexandrakis opposes.

"While I do not agree with Obama's plan 100 [percent] either," he wrote in an e-mail, "I would prefer to see him being elected president."

One reason for the tepid support: The document itself is pretty vague and the McCain economics team had begun circulating it some months ago, as an affirmation of a broad conservative approach to economics. (Some of the signatories had forgotten all about it and didn't even know the statement had been released, until Politico contacted them.) Another reason, surely, is that many economists--even many conservative economists--have serious qualms about the McCain agenda, which pairs more tax reductions with vague, utterly unrealistic promises to cut spending. That's a formula for incurring huge deficits and growing the national debt to more onerous levels. 

In other words, this exaggeration actually matters.  A lot.

--Jonathan Cohn 

Posted: Wednesday, July 09, 2008 11:24 AM with 6 comment(s)

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sdemuth said:

This post borders on the nonsensical.  The statement is not all that ambiguous ("I enthusiastically support...", "it would ...."), and no person with a PhD in economics could possibly have doubted what they were signing.   Calling McCain's press release an exaggeration is simply false.  These were well educated people, and they attached their name to a document endorsing a political candidates plans - if that's not what they intended to do, they could and should have withheld their names.  They did sign, and McCain is well within his rights to consider that signing and endorsement.

July 9, 2008 12:12 PM

tnmats said:

Exaggeration only matters if you're a Democrat.  If you're a pube, you get a pass.  Didn't someone send you the memo Mr. Cohn?

Honestly, watch the press not bother with this at all.  If Obama did the same, they'd burn him.  McCain will likely tout his '300' number and no one in the main stream press will question it one bit.  They'll just happily pass along the "information" as fact.  Whatever the McCain press office says they'll never question.

July 9, 2008 12:14 PM

bigfish said:

I'm not sure, sdemuth.  Reading the article, it sounds like a bait-and-switch to me.  Two key quotes from the article:

"The McCain campaign’s economic team...began collecting signatures from economists several months ago, with the intention of showing support for McCain's broad economic priorities, rather than the specific items in his Jobs for America proposal. The statement they signed is 403 words long — and there is no mention of the gas tax holiday or the deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office projects will approach $400 billion this year."

"The Jobs for America plan is a 15-page document that touts a gas tax holiday proposal on the second page and prominently features the promise that 'John McCain will balance the budget by the end of his first term” on the fourth page. The press release accompanying the economists’ statement claimed it was “in support of John McCain's Jobs for America economic plan.'"

So if I get this right, McCain's campaign sends 403 words of economic policy that doesn't include two high profile McCain promises, the gas tax holiday and balancing the budget, to economists.  The economists sign on.  Then, after adding a silly promise that the vast majority of economists are against (gas tax holiday) and an impossible promise to balance the budget, and ballooning his proposal from 403 words to 15 pages, (For reference, Cohn's entry is 529 words long and my post is 250) the campaign still says that the same economists "enthusiastically support" this new document?  Fishy, says I.

July 9, 2008 12:37 PM

www.buzzflash.net said:

I'm sure, then, that the talk shows will be all over this terrific piece of journalism by Alexander Burns and Avi Zenilman in Politico. On Monday, John McCain's campaign released a statement touting 300 economists who said they "enthusiastically

July 9, 2008 4:42 PM

tec619 said:

"'I would describe myself as an Obama supporter,' he [Constantine Alexandrakis] explained,' is a gem. It's on par with "I was for it before i was against it."  Obama's people should use it when the campaigns start airing dueling economic policy commercials. And it's a sure winner in a debate.

July 9, 2008 7:53 PM

The Plank said:

TNR.com loves the smell of policy reversals in the morning. This week, John McCain promised to balance

July 11, 2008 4:46 PM