Over at the Stump,
Noam argued that while the Republican party should shift to
representing "Sam's Club voters" (economics for the working class paired
with social conservatism), the current GOP can't make the transition because of its fat-cat supporters. Instead,
he sees the current Republican party fading away, with a new coalition
developing to represent this group.
But commenter JSmith125 doesn't see the GOP going
away any time soon:
In a country that's had the same
two major parties for 150 years, it's a little odd to hear that either of them
will "basically cease to exist" -- as opposed to being taken over by a different
political tendency or movement. If it's hard to imagine the Republicans as the
Sam's Club party, it was also once hard to imagine them as the Southern
anti-civil-rights party, and yet there you have it. Over the course of a
generation or so, an American party can come to represent virtually the opposite
of what it once did, all while still retaining its old name.
The
analysis therefore shouldn't focus on whether something called "the Republican
Party" will continue or not, but on what the future of conservatism holds and/or
on whether "Sam's Club conservatism" will ever be electorally viable. I haven't
read "Grand New Party," but I suspect that it understates the degree to which
social and not just economic conservatism is a drag on the current GOP. The
media narrative that says that Americans are basically social conservatives has
been solidly in place since the Reagan years, but it doesn't square with such
indicators as collapsing opposition to gay rights, persistent support for
abortion rights, and in general the failure of conservatives to put the brakes
on post-1960s cultural and sexual liberalization, women's rights, racial
equality, rock'n'roll -- all the progeny of the old "counterculture," which has
turned out to be one of the most successful movements in American history.
Of
course, average people are still "conservative" and always will be, but what
counts as conservative is vastly different from what it was in 1955. To call for
a Republicanism based on social conservatism is to aim your sights at a fixed
point while your target continues moving on downrange. Switching metaphors, it
means you will inevitably find yourself behind the curve, and sooner or later
that's going to lose you elections.
--The Editors