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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
24.06.2008
Thirteen Ways of Looking at the Surge

I think David Brooks is right when he writes of those who opposed the surge (myself included):

They have already gone through the stages of intellectual denial. First, they simply disbelieved that the surge and the Petraeus strategy was doing any good. Then they accused people who noticed progress in Iraq of duplicity and derangement. Then they acknowledged military, but not political, progress. Lately they have skipped over to the argument that Iraq is progressing so well that the U.S. forces can quickly come home.

But before long, the more honest among the surge opponents will concede that Bush, that supposed dolt, actually got one right. Some brave souls might even concede that if the U.S. had withdrawn in the depths of the chaos, the world would be in worse shape today.

Life is complicated. The reason we have democracy is that no one side is right all the time. The only people who are dangerous are those who can’t admit, even to themselves, that obvious fact.

 

And I think Joe Klein is right when, in response to Brooks, he cautions that

right-wing triumphalists shouldn't get too triumphal: this war has been a terrible mistake from the start.

[snip]

The surge has reduced violence. We should all be thrilled about that--and honored by the brilliance of those who have served in Iraq. But what we're talking about here is whipped cream on a pile of fertilizer--a regional policy unprecedented in its stupidity and squalor.

But there's one line Brooks's column that rankles me (and that Klein didn't critique):

Bush, who made such bad calls early in the war, made a courageous and astute decision in 2006. 

With the benefit of hindsight, I guess we can call Bush's decision astute (although one man's astuteness can be another man's luck). But courageous? I don't see how Bush's support of the surge can be described as such.

Yes, as Brooks notes, Bush was bucking "expert and elite opinion" with the surge; but, at the same time, he was a president in his second term on the other side of the mid-term elections, so he wasn't risking much politically. What's more, if Bush had followed that expert and elite opinion and started withdrawing troops from Iraq, he would have been admitting that the war was a mistake, which would have cemented his place in history as a president who presided over a military defeat. By supporting the surge, Bush was like a gambler deep in the hole who, rather than walk away from the table, doubles down. Even if such a move works, there's nothing courageous about it.

--Jason Zengerle 

Posted: Tuesday, June 24, 2008 12:11 PM with 6 comment(s)

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blackton said:

Gen. Shinseki, who told the truth about necessary troop levels and who was booted out was both courageous and astute. If Republicans had managed to hold onto the Senate and done a little better in the house, I daresay Rumsfeld would still be Sec. of Def. and Brooks would be praising Bush's steadfastness. It is even likely that violence would have tapered down as well being that most of the sectarian cleansing is done, and the Anbar awakening has little to do with our increased troop levels.

I supported the concept of the surge years ago (as did many other posters at TNR). I knew it had to be at least attempted since one of my own long ongoing criticisms of Bush was based on what Shinseki said. The notion that all Democrats were for withdrawal only is a lie. But the reasons behind the surge have not succeeded, because it was to allow the Iraqis to get their shit together and defend themselves. I don't think it is Bush's intention for them ever to be able to defend themselves. The Iraqi airforce has no jets, nor does hit have much heavy weaponry. We won't sell it to them or allow them to have it for fear it will be used against us. When the Iraqis are armed to be a real army, then I know we are serious about leaving.

June 24, 2008 1:06 PM

purcellneil said:

Whether the surge was astute in any way other than in saving face for Bush will be best judged by what ultimately happens - not only in Iraq but also in Afghanistan, which we have neglected in order to provide troops for the surge, in the impact on our military of the prolonged occupation, and in the economic costs which have been deferred and will have to be paid in the future.

Whether the surge was a success, in more than its apparent goal of sparing Bush the humiliation of overseeing the withdrawal, will be easy to judge in January of 2009.  When the next President takes office, if the surge was a success, he will be able to order the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.  If we still need 100,000 or more troops in Iraq at the end of 2009, then the surge can hardly have been a success.

Neil

June 24, 2008 1:39 PM

jhildner said:

I like how "bucking" "experts" is a sign of courage and leadership.  No, it's a sign of stupidity.  Brooks -- himself an elite who has apparently never been to Applebee's -- knows better.  Now, experts are somtimes wrong, of course.  They can be *very* wrong.  But they're *less likely* to be wrong than people who don't know what they're talking about.  Therefore, you would expect that someone who, as a general matter, listens to experts would sometimes get it wrong but usually get it right.  Conversely, you would expect that someone who, as a general matter, does not listen to experts would sometimes get it right but *usually* fuck everything up.  Which category do we suppose Bush falls under?

June 24, 2008 2:47 PM

spencer97m said:

Re Bush and the surge:  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

June 24, 2008 3:48 PM

DDovenbarger said:

We all can acknowledge that after the surge started there was a decline in some types of violence in Iraq.  It takes some kind of chump, however, to fall into one of the oldest logical fallacies that simply because something happened after something else it was caused by it.  There are multple possible sources of the decline in violence after the surge started.  These include attrition, payments (wages or bribes) paid to Iraqi unemployed, and internal revulsion at the slaughter by Iraqi citizens.  

    In any event, you can't really talk about the surge being a 'success' without addressing what its success was.  Brooks' intellectual gaff is that he never references what it was successful at doing.  It was never billed as an effort to simply reduce violence to allow our troops to stay in Iraq.  It was billed as subduing the country to 'allow breathing room' for the political changes and developments to occur to allow U.S. forces to leave the country.  So far, it has not resulted in the political changes necessary for Iraqi government to actually govern, nor has it resulted in status where U.S. troops can leave.  Under its own billing, it has not been a succes, even though it may have contributed to a decline in violence after it started.

June 24, 2008 4:57 PM

The Plank said:

Reading that Joe Klein blog entry about the Iraq surge Jason linked to earlier, I came upon this curious

June 24, 2008 5:06 PM