With the
primary race finally wrapped up, we asked a few friends of the magazine to
consider the type of campaign Barack Obama should run against John McCain. Up
first is William Galston, former policy advisor to Bill
Clinton and current senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Seldom has the
basic structure of an election tilted so strongly in the direction of the
Democratic Party. In these circumstances especially, losing the presidential
contest would be devastating for the party and would guarantee the continuation
of divided government, at great cost to the country. In order to maximize his
chances of winning, here are some of the steps Barack Obama needs to take.
- Introduce
himself to the American people.
Despite the protracted nominating contest, most Americans know almost
nothing about him, other than his hopefulness and his unfortunate
relationship with Jeremiah Wright. His early general election
advertisements and speeches should lay out his biography, emphasizing that
his family background was anything but privileged.
- Establish
clear priorities. In
his 2000 stump speech, George W. Bush relentlessly repeated the five main
things he intended to accomplish as president. It wasn't elegant, but it
conveyed a sense of direction and gave listeners something concrete to
take away with them. The downside of inspiration is that when the
immediate sensation fades, most listeners won't remember what they've
heard.
- Focus
more specifically on the economy.
I would bet that if you asked 100 Americans today what Obama would do to
improve their economic circumstances and prospects, at most a handful
would be able to provide a single specific. Filling in the blanks is a
necessary condition for maintaining control of the economic issue, which
will be a key to victory, especially among the less-educated, lower-income
voters who were unmoved by the generic promise of "change" during the
primaries.
- Cross
the threshold of credibility as commander-in-chief. Obama should emphasize that
despite his determination to terminate our combat presence in Iraq, he
understands that our ground forces are badly battered and dangerously
overstretched. Because they will have to be rebuilt and expanded, there
will be no "peace dividend." In addition, to maximize the continuity of
national security despite the change of administrations, he should
announce his willingness to retain both the current CIA director and the director
of national intelligence for the first two years of his presidency.
- Reach
out to Catholics. The
most faithful Democratic group a half-century ago, Catholics are now the
key swing religious group in the electorate. During the nominating
contest, Obama tended to do worse among white Catholics than among white
Protestants. If this trend continues, it could mean trouble in the fall,
especially in the Midwest, where
Catholics are disproportionately represented in most swing states. To turn
this around, Obama should:
- visit the Pope before the
convention;
- give Senator Bob Casey, Jr., a
primetime speaking role at the convention, rectifying the exclusion of
his father from the 1992 convention, a slight many Catholics still
remember and resent;
- deliver a high-profile speech at
Notre Dame on themes such as social justice and community, as Bill
Clinton did in 1992; and
- create networks of local Catholic
organizers in states such as Ohio,
a strategy the Bush campaign employed to decisive effect in 2004.
- Emphasize
moderation and open-mindedness on social issues. Relatively few Americans remember the
path-breaking speech on religion in public life that Obama delivered
two years ago. He should bring it out of mothballs, deliver it in a
high-profile setting, and then incorporate its essential points in his
stump speech. In addition, he should restore the so-called conscience
clause on abortion that appeared in the 1996 and 2000 Democratic platforms
but was removed in 2004. It read: "The Democratic Party is a party of
inclusion. We respect the individual conscience of each American on this
difficult issue, and we welcome all our members to participate at every
level of our party."
- Make
the electorate understand that on the issues that they care about the
most, John McCain is no moderate.
His prescription for the economy: even larger tax cuts. For health
insurance: a privatization scheme that wouldn't even assure access to the
many millions of Americans with preexisting conditions. And for Iraq: war
without end. If Obama can persuade moderate and independent voters that
McCain is more conservative than Bush on the issues that matter most, he
will almost certainly win the election.
--William Galston