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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
16.05.2008
Yet Another CSI Effect

This is a bit afield of the primaries, but forensics expert Roger Koppl has a fascinating (if alarming) piece in Forbes this week arguing that forensic evidence isn't as foolproof as shows like CSI might suggest:

If only forensics were that reliable. Instead, to judge by the most comprehensive study on the reliability of forensic evidence to date, the error rate is more than 10% in five categories of analysis, including fiber, paint and body fluids. (Meaning: When the expert says specimen X matches source Y, there's a 10% probability he's wrong.) DNA and fingerprints are more reliable but still not foolproof. The 1995 study, in the Journal of Forensic Sciences, looked at proficiency tests labs take to see whether their work is sound.

More recent studies have also shown problems. Though a 2005 study in the Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology suggests a fingerprint false-positive rate a bit below 1%, a widely read 2006 experiment shows an alarming 4% false-positive rate.

Radley Balko offers up some further commentary. Among other points, it turns out that forensic experts can be biased simply by talking to prosecutors and police officers beforehand (which, as I understand it, they usually need to do). Koppl proposes a few fixes, including this: "Each jurisdiction should include several competing labs" to double-check each other's work. The extra cost would quickly pay for itself by reducing the number of false convictions. Balko, for his part, emphasizes the idea that the defense should have guaranteed access to its own forensic experts, which is admittedly a more radical step.

P.S. Ooh, can't believe I almost overlooked this: Jeffrey Toobin had a terrific piece in The New Yorker last May exploring the various complexities in forensic science. And, on a weirder note, Target of all places now runs its very own crime lab, which was originally intended to sniff out shoplifters, but now comes to the aid of local law enforcement in a wider variety of cases.

--Bradford Plumer

Posted: Friday, May 16, 2008 6:35 PM with 6 comment(s)

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williamyard said:

More research is needed!

In the cause of advancing forensic science, I shall ask the Sonoma Hooker, during our scheduled phone call at 1400 PDT today, if she will be available this evening to assist in the collection of a sample of my DNA.

Our laboratory will be a chaise in my back yard, around 10 p.m., when the Big Dipper hangs almost directly overhead, giving comfort to eons of sailors by pointing the way to Polaris; and a chorus of crickets will sing Alleluia!; and the coyotes hunting of late in the hills to the west will serenade us with songs overflowing with feral, fevered frenzy.

Coyotes know all about crimes of passion.

May 16, 2008 2:06 PM

liberal reformer said:

I vividly recall the Toobin article, Bradford. It was indeed first - rate. People love knockdown evidence and cases. But alas, life and jurisprudence are rarely like that. Our evolutionary past did not equip us to think statistically, as a matter of course. I am probably asking for too much but I would like to see a popular crime show that deals with the gray areas and nuances.

May 16, 2008 2:08 PM

liberal reformer said:

I vividly recall the Toobin article, Bradford. It was indeed first - rate. People love knockdown evidence and cases. But alas, life and jurisprudence are rarely like that. Our evolutionary past did not equip us to think statistically, as a matter of course. I am probably asking for too much but I would like to see a popular crime show that deals with the gray areas and nuances.

May 16, 2008 2:08 PM

jemerk said:

They are not called effing experts for no reason.

May 16, 2008 2:18 PM

roidubouloi said:

Ah, "nuance."  That is fast becoming my favorite word.  "Say it soft and it's almost like singing."

May 16, 2008 3:01 PM

psantillana said:

I agree with Balko. We care about truth, right? Prosecutors care about a conviction.

May 17, 2008 2:58 AM