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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
09.05.2008
David A. Bell on the Unity Ticket

The notion of a Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton "unity ticket" has been floated quite a bit the last few days. But, seriously, is the idea any good? We asked a few friends of the magazine to weigh in. Here's David A. Bell, a professor of history at Johns Hopkins University and a contributing editor for The New Republic.

10 Reasons for Barack Obama not to pick Hillary Clinton as his Vice President: 

1. It's wrong to say that Hillary has survived the worst the Republicans have thrown against her. In a national election, the sort of attacks which had little traction in New York senate races and the Ohio or Pennsylvania primaries could well drag her--and Obama--down. Should Obama have to spend part of his presidential campaign defending the Clintons, of all people, when Travelgate, Whitewater, Vince Foster, the Lincoln Bedroom, Marc Rich, Norman Hsu, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers, Monica, and Bosnia all come oozing back up into our political life?

2. How can Obama possibly campaign as the incarnation of the future, and the repudiation of the Bad Old Politics of the Past, when he has Hillary standing next to him?

3. Dynasticism in a minor, vice-presidential key is still dynasticism, and the country is sick of it. Is John McCain going to pick Jeb Bush as his running mate? (and if it wasn't for the last name, he well might).

4. Bill. If Hillary, of all people, couldn't stop him from harming the campaign he was supposed to be helping, can Barack?

5. Hillary has simply gone too far claiming that Obama is unready to be president. Her lines will be flung back in her face--and his--endlessly by the Republicans, and in debates.

6. This seems to be one case that disproves the adage about keeping your friends close and your enemies closer. In 2016, after a second Obama term, Hillary will be nearly 70. Does anyone think she is going to be content to put her own ambitions aside until then, and be nothing but a good team player?

7. Why should Obama give up a chance to put someone with real executive experience on the ticket? This is a weakness of his, and Hillary will not help to address it seriously, despite her vaunted "35 years."

8. A great deal of the political fence-mending that he would accomplish by choosing Hilary could be done just as well by choosing her strong supporter Evan Bayh.

9. Hillary is not Lyndon Johnson. She probably can't bring him anywhere near the number of electoral votes that Johnson brought to the Democratic ticket in 1960 (she certainly can't steal Texas for him!).

10. The obvious, unfortunate, Unevolved Nation reason, namely that some voters will be comforted by a white male on the ticket. Should Obama pay attention to this factor? No. Will he? Good question.

--David A. Bell

Related
Alan Wolfe: Using identity politics to move beyond identity politics.
Ed Kilgore: Obama should ask her, and she should accept.
Mark Schmitt: The party doesn't need that much repairing.
Michael Tomasky: He can do better in both substantive and symbolic terms.

 

Posted: Friday, May 09, 2008 1:52 PM with 18 comment(s)

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cspencef said:

The best of the set so far, simply for being direct and unflinching in cataloging the weaknesses of Hillary as a potential V.P. for Obama.  

May 9, 2008 2:49 PM

AlliP62 said:

I completely agree.  This is spot on.  

May 9, 2008 3:07 PM

roidubouloi said:

Terrific.  This is the sort of unadorned realism that we expect from TNR, not sentimentality.  I would love to hear a response to this from the other side, but skip the "healing" generalities and vague notions about demographics.  Tell us, if you can, how the list above can be addressed and what Hillary would bring that could possibly offset these downsides.

May 9, 2008 3:15 PM

johnalthousecohen said:

"some voters will be comforted by a white male on the ticket. Should Obama pay attention to this factor? No."

I'm sorry, but that's just dumb. The goal is to actually become the president, not to feel good about being colorblind. He has to consider all the factors.

If you want to have the first black president (President Obama) instead of continuing white men's unbroken presidential winning streak (President McCain), you should want a white man as the running mate. Of course this isn't pleasant to acknowledge, but it's reality.

May 9, 2008 3:18 PM

WoodyBombay said:

I heartily agree with every point except #8. I agree that fence-mending maybe is in order, but Evan Bayh is the wrong guy..

May 9, 2008 3:22 PM

roidubouloi said:

Rendell would be much better than Bayh from both the fence-mending side and the winning the election side.  I understood point #8 as exemplary, not as a pitch for Bayh per se.

May 9, 2008 3:29 PM

boneill said:

This one:

5. Hillary has simply gone too far claiming that Obama is unready to be president. Her lines will be flung back in her face--and his--endlessly by the Republicans, and in debates.

Is absolutely correct.  I mean, she is already essentially cutting ads for the Repubs right now.  Can you imagine if she is on the ticket.  "Even Obama's Vice-President doesn't think he has 'crossed the threshold'.  Why should any of us?"

May 9, 2008 4:18 PM

scire said:

except that there would potentially be the Rendell-Farrakhan problem, which if he's with Obama, could really be something the Republicans would use.

May 9, 2008 4:22 PM

liberal reformer said:

As I blogged earlier today, Obama will pick a white male for v.p. This nation has evolved a great deal but political calculations at the margins requires taking the unevolved nation into consideration.

WoodyBombay: Evan Bayh is an uninspiring pick. How about Phil Bredesen?

May 9, 2008 4:49 PM

roidubouloi said:

True, scire,

But maybe Rendell could be asked to reject and denounce him and so forth.

Liberal,

Tennesee is pretty far in the red column at the moment and not that big.  Not a good use of the opportunity in my opinion.

What about Bill Nelson?  FL is a reach but not out of reach and it might make McCain spend a lot of time and resources in FL, a must-win for the Republicans.  I don't know if he is genuinely popular but he was re-elected with 60% of the vote.  Nice white guy.  Good Dem.  Loses votes for being in the Senate (loss of a seat - bad, bad, bad).  He would balance the ticket though, having gone to Yale.

May 9, 2008 5:11 PM

GSpinks said:

Excellent!

I think #2 should have been first, though and #8 and #5 should have been second and third, respectively.

I think Rendell would be a great Veep, it would butress several apparent weak points (Obama denounced and repudiated Farrakhan outright back in Ohio). But I still can't get Pelosi off my mind, that would be a perfect slam against Hillary and disarm the majority of her "staunch" supporters.

May 9, 2008 5:15 PM

roidubouloi said:

GS,

Hillary's supporters really aren't the problem to be solved, and I don't think that trying to break two barriers at once is a great idea.

I just read a pretty persuasive argument on behalf of Jim Webb.  Maybe if he were sent to campaign heavily in OH and PA, not to mention VA, it would work out.  

I dunno.  I just know that demographics is not the issue here.  Electoral College votes is the issue.  If he picked an Hispanic, gained a couple of million votes, but didn't pick off any states as a result, it would have been a mistake.  Same with the Hillary lunch-bucket Democrats.  This might be as far as uninformed speculation can go.  I assume that there is a lot of polling being done in OH, PA and FL to see what is possible, which demographics within those states are movable and who might move them.

One thing I do know for sure, Obama should get every Jewish Democrat in the Congress down to south Florida to go to every  venue in the place.  Florida is not a rock-hard red state yet.

May 9, 2008 5:47 PM

mollysimon said:

#4 is my favorite.  And I'm not thinking about the campaign.  I'm thinking of how much of an underminer she'd be in the White House.  They'd be cutting off his legs every chance they got.  I was thinking maybe AG, but then realized she'd be just thrilled to launch the kind of investigations that came her way.  Her biggest calcium deposits are the two fangs on either side of her front teeth.  

Roid:  We shouldn't give up on Florida, but I"m telling you, I hung out with a bunch of elderly Jews in Sarasota for a week, and they ain't liking him.  Who knows--maybe Gore, a friend to all sons and daughters of Abraham, can convince them.  

May 9, 2008 8:26 PM

roidubouloi said:

Molly,

The generation of old Jews that still refers to blacks as "the shvarzers" may be irredeemable, but in NY I don't feel much anti-Obama sentiment.  To the contrary.  But that may have more to do with the age/education demographics.  In NYC, we pretty much fit the Obama-ite profile.

Either way, I do think Obama should put some serious effort into Florida and should trot out plenty of surrogates who have cred with the Jews, including Al Gore.  I wouldn't send Jimmy Carter.  Indeed, the best thing that Carter can do for the Democratic party is keep a very low profile until after the election, super delegate or not.

May 9, 2008 11:57 PM

WoodyBombay said:

I originally thought #8 meant "a strong HRC supporter such as Evan Bayh," but reread it and thought the wording was pretty specific. Apologies if my reading that right was wrong.

LR, I don't know much about Bredesen, but have never heard anything bad about him. Even though he's wildly popular in Tennessee, could he bring his state home in November? The cynic in me says focus on swing states and don't choose a senator unless we're sure he or she would be replaced by a Dem in the Senate.

May 10, 2008 12:22 AM

psantillana said:

I don't think you should keep your enemies close to you. I think you should appoint them to something where they're kept busy and you don't have to see them very much. Who needs the stress?

May 10, 2008 3:49 AM

fougasseu said:

Great list.

Number three is reason enough.

Bill has just begun his downward spiral. He's an aging satyr, raging against the inevitable. He will only become more grotesque and damaging as the years go on.

He needs to be ignored - but ignoring him may be impossible.

He may cost Obama the election. If he campaigns for him, he'll do great damage, and if he's not asked to campaign for him, how can he resist the spotlight? And imagine his wrath when Obama clinches the nomination. The number of cronies who have double-crossed him are legion. A lot of the old guard will be sleeping with one eye open.

If there's any truth to the adage of keeping your enemies close, I suppose Obama needs to find a role for him. Yuck.

May 10, 2008 8:34 AM

Rhubarbs said:

Did someone ask for a white guy VP? Who, unlike Jim Webb, is actually good at campaigning?

Paging Brad Henry, paging Brad Henry. Governor Henry, the VP nomination is on line two.

May 10, 2008 4:14 PM