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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
29.04.2008
Edwards's Moment?

It wasn't so long ago that the CW said John Edwards had missed his window to make his presidential endorsement meaningful. But now that North Carolina Governor Mike Easley has come out for Hillary Clinton, what do you think Obama would give Edwards for his endorsement? It'll have to be a lot, because according to the NYT, Edwards is reluctant to pull the trigger for anyone:

Mr. Edwards has hinted to friends that he will not offer an endorsement before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6.

One former aide said that Mr. Edwards is angling for a role in a Democratic administration, and with the contest still undecided, he is hesitant to commit to a candidate.

“He doesn’t want to pick the loser,” the aide said.

Still, it seems like he could angle for an awfully big role in an Obama administration if he came out for him now.

Update: Of course, Tyler Hansbrough's endorsement might be even more valuable to Obama than Edwards's. 

--Jason Zengerle 

Posted: Tuesday, April 29, 2008 9:05 AM with 7 comment(s)

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dbhuff said:

I would LOVE to see Edwards as Atty' Gen'l...

April 29, 2008 9:42 AM

lymon1 said:

Edward's alleged statement is ridiculous -- Obama has a 95% chance of winning the nomination.  If Edwards wants a spot in the administration, this would be his moment.  My guess is that relations between him and Obama are frosty and theonly thing keeping him from endorsing HRC is the long odds against her nomination.  

April 29, 2008 10:10 AM

roidubouloi said:

Excellent idea dbhuff.  Unlike Hillary, who barely praticed law, Edwards knows something.  He would be a superb Atty Gen.

April 29, 2008 10:13 AM

J.J. Gould said:

Lymon's right. It's gotten harder and harder not to see Obama as having essentially won the nomination already. So you could look at it the other way around: If indeed Edwards is "angling" for a role in a Democratic administration, the fact that there is still the strong perception of an actual race for the nomination as the NC primary approaches is a gift of an opportunity for him to get out there and appear to have made an important and well-timed endorsement. He wouldn't be helping Obama win the nomination anymore than he could help Clinton win the nomination -- he's impotent to do either by now -- but he would be helping shore up support for the eventual nominee at a time when that remains valuable in itself. So arguably the situation looks more like this: If Edwards endorses no one now or soon, he can angle for nothing; and if he endorses Clinton, he will positively shut himself out of a Dem administration; but if he endorses Obama, he can put himself in a good position for a role of some kind; whether it's "awfully big" would not likely be up to Edwards.

April 29, 2008 10:26 AM

tnmats said:

Oh man, did Obama just alienate every NCSU and Dook alumnus and fan?  :-)

April 29, 2008 10:50 AM

roidubouloi said:

While we are all basically sitting around waiting for NC, it is worth reviewing the bidding and state of play:

First, it is well to keep in mind that after every prior round of voting, Obama has gained on Hillary.  Here's how Obama built the 166 margin he had just prior to PA:

Open                     +5

Super Tuesday    +13

February            +123

TX-OH-MS             +5

Total                  +166

Several weeks ago, I looked at the polls and delegate counts in PA-NC-IN and concluded that the most likely case was a net change of zero.  Because the race in PA closed significantly, Hillary picked up only 10 there.  The other races, IN and NC, have also closed slightly but, overall, the races have tightened more in the states, PA and IN, where Hillary had the lead.  Thus, it is now a bit more likely that Obama will gain 4-6 delegates in the PA-IN-NC round.  I'm predicting a net of 4, but it might be zero.  Still, at no point in the voting will Hillary ever have gained ground other than momentarily in a pause between elections that are close on the calendar.

If you take the remaining races after NC and assume Hillary wins the ones in which she is ahead by 20% and Obama wins the ones he is ahead by only 10% (a very favorable assumption for Hillary), she gains 19 total delegates.  Thus, it is extremely likely that Obama comes to the convention with a pledged delegate lead of not less than 150.

Hillary's super-delegate lead continues it's long and secular decline.  Today, it is only 20, down 4 from a few days ago.  He has gained about 80 super-delegate votes on her since the open.

As to the popular vote, taking the most favorable view for Hillary, that is giving her FL and her 62,000 vote margin in MI, Obama is still up by 255,000.  After NC and IN, he should be back up around the 465,000 lead he had just pre PA.  If you assume the same favorable splits for Hillary in the popular vote  in the remaining races (20% for her wins, 10% for his wins) she will pick up 265,000 votes.  100,000 less than that is much more likely, but, even so, Obama will come to the convention with a popular vote lead of at least 200,000, a bit more than the margin by which Gore beat Bush.

As for electability, the argument for Hillary up until now has run directly counter to the evidence.  Obama has paired up better against McCain for a long time.  In the poll averages as of last night, Hillary has gained a slight edge, 1.5%.  If it gets beyond the margin of error, she might have an argument.  However, considering the very modest size of the poll bounce she got from PA, as soon as he breaks back in NC, my guess is that those polls will swing back in his favor.

At what point would the Hillaristas like to acknowledge that Obama is the party's nominee?  Is there any point at which Hillaristas believe that it is not in the interests of the Democratic party for Hillary to continue her attacks on Obama?  Any answers?

April 29, 2008 10:57 AM

jandura07 said:

Tyler Hansbrough?  Thats it, I'm switching to Hillary.

April 30, 2008 3:52 AM