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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
26.04.2008
The Other Guys Are Worse!

Jon Chait has already explained why attacks are more damaging to a candidate when they come from someone in his own party. But beyond that, there seems to be a logical flaw in the argument of Clinton apologists (e.g. Paul Krugman) who claim that the Clinton campaign's attacks are in fact acceptable politics. Here is Krugman in his Friday column:

According to many Obama supporters, it's all Hillary's fault. If she hadn't launched all those vile, negative attacks on their hero — if she had just gone away — his aura would be intact, and his mission of unifying America still on track.

But how negative has the Clinton campaign been, really? Yes, it ran an ad that included Osama bin Laden in a montage of crisis images that also included the Great Depression and Hurricane Katrina. To listen to some pundits, you'd think that ad was practically the same as the famous G.O.P. ad accusing Max Cleland of being weak on national security.

It wasn't. The attacks from the Clinton campaign have been badminton compared with the hardball Republicans will play this fall. If the relatively mild rough and tumble of the Democratic fight has been enough to knock Mr. Obama off his pedestal, what hope did he ever have of staying on it through the general election?

It's worth noting how Krugman sloppily dances from accusation to accusation; regardless, he seems to half-concede that using Osama Bin Laden in an ad is slightly dirty but nevertheless acceptable because the Republicans will do worse. And since the GOP is pure evil, if Clinton attacks Obama in the hope of toughening him up for November, well, that's alright. 

Krugman is one of those liberals who over the past six years has been disgusted with more than the Bush administration's policies; he frequently mentions "dirty" Republican attack ads and what he considers the unscrupulous way in which The Party of Lincoln goes about winning elections (a cursory search turned up six references to the Cleland ad in his columns). If I read Krugman correctly, then, he has argued (before Friday) that the ends do not justify the means (or, to put it another way, Republicans may be within their rights to try and win elections, but the task must be undertaken with at least minimal ethical standards).

But wait: Now Krugman is saying any sort of tactic is fine as long as it leads to Republican defeat (of course I am giving Krugman the benefit of the doubt on his ridiculous argument that these attacks are actually helping Obama). But by this standard, the Republicans are free to run campaigns however they see fit, too.  

Finally, this passage from Christopher Hitchens' old Atlantic review of Sidney Blumenthal's memoirs is worth recalling:

But just wait for the good people's party to be caught doing something shady or vile; at once you will be told that it's no worse than what the bad people's party would do or has done. Immediately, in other words, the apologist will admit that the game is up, and that he is judging his own team by a standard (of ghastliness in others) that he himself helped to set. "They all do it" means, in this circle, "We all do it." But the apologist won't concede this consciously or honestly. Faced with the task of explaining the Clinton pardons, including one to Marc Rich, Sidney Blumenthal, a former senior Clinton adviser, immediately responds, in The Clinton Wars, that Richard Nixon pardoned Jimmy Hoffa; and as for the $190,000 in gifts accumulated by the Clintons, it was "roughly the same amount as the preceding Bushes had accepted." Since he elsewhere accuses the Republican Party of being essentially lawless and segregationist, he might admit that he's setting himself a low standard. But he doesn't get the joke.

--Isaac Chotiner

Posted: Saturday, April 26, 2008 12:42 PM with 50 comment(s)

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newdex said:

"he seems to half-concede that using Osama Bin Laden in an ad is slightly dirty but nevertheless acceptable"

There's the flaw in your argument.  I don't think he "half-concedes" that at all.  And it seems like you don't want there to be a difference between a dirty attack and just an attack.  Some might argue that any attacking is inherently dirty, but I don't know if Krugman ever has.  Both sides in the primary have attacked and attacked but, in reality, neither has been especially "dirty" about it.  Nonetheless, Hillary's "dirtiness" has been a major theme and that's what Krugman is responding too.  

April 26, 2008 1:27 PM

peter1943 said:

I won't argue for the artfulness of Hillary's ads, but how is showing a collection of dire moments in American history and then arguing you're the best candidate to handle those moments remotely dirty?

The ad basically say we live in fucked up dangerous times and I'm better equipped to handle them than my opponent who was a state senator last time we had an election. Except she doesn't say the last part, which if I was running her campaign would have been in the ad.  How is that not fair?  

The paat few days have seen Chris Matthews and other bemoan the return of the creator of the Willie Horton ad creator to he NC scene. The fact that they don't mention is the reason the ad was effective was because it was, uh, true!. As chief executive of Massachusetts, Mike Dukakis allowed a convicted murderer to have week furloughs. On one of his weekend passes, Horton killed a boy. Kind of sounds like that was a relevant part of Dukakis's resume!

As long as liberals equate tough and hard-hitting with dirty, the Democrats will not elect a president.

April 26, 2008 2:21 PM

blackton said:

newdex, um... McCain and Hillary are qualified to be CIC but Obama isn't? Besides, not all her dirtiness is related to attacks but instead of the truly sleazy way she has campaigned. Michigan doesn't matter so she might as well keep her name on the ballot, now count those votes, give me my 328,000 to 0. It was Obama's own fault for taking his name off the ballot. Caucus states don't count, neither do small or medium sized states, the only ones that matter are big ones. How about the sleaziest one of all, when blacks vote for Obama it is identity politics, but when old white woman vote for Hillary, it is a sign that she can win the general. In fact, since McCain will help cause Roe Vs. Wade to be overturned, and perhaps abortion make illegal, women are far more likely to vote for Obama if need be then black men will ever turn out for Hillary.

I can go on and on but we all know this.

And outside of economics, Krugman is a hack who has made zero difference. 8 years of him getting hysterical over Bush was really effective, right.

April 26, 2008 2:26 PM

teplukhin2you said:

If Obama can't handle an 80mph curveball, how the hell is he going to handle a GOP 110mph spitball aimed at his head?

April 26, 2008 2:35 PM

hemlock41 said:

Krugman is right that the Pearl Harbor- Osama bin Laden ad isn't really dirty. Having the ability to meet crises head-on, while maintaining an even keel and exercising good judgment, is crucial in a president. It's fair to ask voters which candidate they think has this ability, if you can do so without shamelessly manipulating their fears. (I didn't think the Clinton ad was very fear-mongering.)  If the way each candidate has met challenges in their respective campaigns in any indication, Obama has a lot more of this ability than Clinton. But either way, it's the wrong example.

The truly dirty tactics are those in which Clinton has smeared Obama, in the same slimey unscrupulous ways that the lowest republican attack artists would: by pushing his "association" with Ayers in the debate, and then refusing to address her husband's pardons of two weather underground members. (She wants to get credit for the accomplishments of his administration, but stonewalls on this.) Or by throwing out Farrakhan's name in the last debate, even though Obama has repeatedly "denounced and rejected" the man... when her own top campaigner in PA, Rendell, has lavishly praised Farrakhan. Or by directly enlisting the help of the republican slime machine in her attacks on Obama, for example in her interview with Scaife and Bill's interview with Rush Limbaugh's show. Or by pushing the mangled mistated version of Obama's "bitter" comments, rather than addressing his explanation/correction, when she herself expects us to accept that her Bosnia lie was a misstatement.

April 26, 2008 2:39 PM

hemlock41 said:

oops. I meant to add: Krugman conveniently ignores these examples.

April 26, 2008 2:40 PM

blackton said:

I got no argument with that ad, or the 3:00 AM ones. Silly to argue about them. If she starts morph Obama into Osama then the outrage is justified. At this point though, how many Democrats are being influenced by them? Obama's bitter gaffe was far more damaging than any ad, and he paid the price somewhat in Pa. But there is a perception that Hillary will do or say anything to get elected, and that is pretty fixed. Anything that she does that leans in that direction shall be taken as confirmation that this is true. She can whine about how unfair that is, but it simply is. Her saying that the fighting is the fun part (against fellow Democrats) was a huge blunder on her part, one that she still has no overcome, and is instead simply hoping that she will be taken as the lesser of two evils.

Anyway, we are going round in circles when the park is soon to close. North Carolina is a must win for Hillary. If she can't win it (or come exceedingly close) then how can she go on? And if Obama wins by double digits then she is done, regardless of Indiana.

April 26, 2008 2:41 PM

Proteus said:

The attitude seems to be:  HRC has a right to stay in the race; she just doesn't have a right to campaign against Obama.

April 26, 2008 2:42 PM

blackton said:

proteus, she has the right to campaign against Obama, but not the right to pull down the party in a vain attempt to salvage 2012. Huckabee sure as hell didn't. And did you notice that conversation between the two on McCains bus? They both came to Rev. Wrights freaking aid! This from Republicans!

yeah, and then you will wonder why so many Obama supporters will desert Hillary if she steals the nod.

April 26, 2008 2:58 PM

maxblum13 said:

she doesn't have a right to stay in the race.  She is a traitor to the party and we young folks won't vote for her this fall.  Have fun with that.

April 26, 2008 4:13 PM

jacobt1 said:

"maxblum13 said:

she doesn't have a right to stay in the race.  She is a traitor to the party and we young folks won't vote for her this fall.  Have fun with that."

He  doesn't have a right to stay in the race.  He  is a traitor to the party and we sane  folks won't vote for him  this fall.  Have fun with that.

April 26, 2008 5:35 PM

jacobt1 said:

blackton,

Anyway, we are going round in circles when the park is soon to close. IN  is a must win for Obama . If he loses  it, and then loses OR it will be over for Obama.

April 26, 2008 5:38 PM

Proteus said:

Please explain how HRC could campaign against Obama without "pulling down the party."  

April 26, 2008 5:40 PM

sabatia said:

Forget the ads and look at other aspects of the Clinton campaign. Her performance in the last debate for instance. She knows full well that Obama's acquintance with Ayers is meaningless, and if one digs deep enough, one finds such tenuous connections with almost every politician. But she used it to attack. Just like Limbaugh would. And raising his minister and Farrakahn. Like scum Sean Haggerty or whatever his name is.

I was a fairly strong Hillary supporter and decent donor until she decided to throw, in her own words, the kitchen sink. I am not a political purist or naif, but her and Bill and the Campaign have really turned me off. You can tell me I'm wrong, but, like an increasing number of her supporters, I've changed my allegiance. Her behavior--she is responsible for her campaign-- just doesn't pass our rabid or cautious humanistic political smell test. That's part of why we are Democrats.

From today's NYT: "According to campaign finance records released this week, 73 top Clinton donors wrote their first checks to Obama in March. None of Obama's deep-pocketed supporters, by contrast, defected to Clinton."

April 26, 2008 6:01 PM

hemlock41 said:

Proteus: She can accept some basic limits to the tactics she uses. No smearing the character of fellow Democrats. No double standards on who should have to account for their supporter's dubious associations. No manipulative moving of the goal posts every few days. No blatant hypocrisy.

April 26, 2008 6:04 PM

newdex said:

maxblum and Jacob, you're both part of the problem.  

Blacton: I don't want to get into the details of a thousand incidents, but I just think that your list of the "truly sleazy" ways she's campaigned comes down to two main categories:

1. positions she holds that you disagree with, and which may be cynical, but are arguably no more cynical than Obama's positions (although, obviously you would disagree with those arguments) and,

2. extremely ungenerous, subjective interpretations of things she's said.  

As you say above, "there is a perception that Hillary will do or say anything to get elected, and that is pretty fixed. Anything that she does that leans in that direction shall be taken as confirmation that this is true."  All told I don't thinks she's really even "whined" about that as much as some people make out.  But I think that by accepting that kind of habit, Obama supporters are making it harder for Obama to whine about it when they find that there's a perception that Obama is arrogant and elitist and "anything he does that leans in that direction" is taken as confirmation that its true.  

April 26, 2008 6:09 PM

hemlock41 said:

Proteus:  Clinton has gotten a lot better at public speaking recently, at least in the segments we see on TV.  Back in January it was painful to listern to her. But now she's great on the stump. And she has a lot of great things to say. Plus she thinks she has an edge in connecting with base voters out there on the trail. If she swore off the dirty tricks, and capitalized on these positive things, she might expand her current coalition of support. And she'd avoid hurting the party too.

April 26, 2008 6:33 PM

blackton said:

newdex, examples of Obama's cynical positions please instead of bland assertion. Where has Obama or his people ever said Michigan or Florida should not revote for example (and not people here) or where and when has Obama said his victories in the Red states are worth more than Hillary's in the blue ones? I truly want to know what are his cynical positions? Also, has Obama ever said delegates are not bound to support the candidates? Have you  ever seen that Stewart takedown of Hillary's cynicism? She has said previously the voters will decide (when it looked like they would decide her) now she says they are only a part of the system, true or not that is a terrible thing to say.

I have no problem with calling Obama arrogant and elitist, but so is Hillary. Or do you think that Hillary has the modest of Gandhi? Indira maybe, certainly not Mahatma. To run for President you have to be elitist and arrogant. The only recent Presidents we have had who are not arrogant and elitist were Truman and Ford, neither of whom ran for President.

Jacob, ooohhhhh snap. Yeah, keep telling yourself that. If Hillary gets blown out in North Carolina it is over for her, her popular vote total she racked up in Pa. will be nullified as will be her delegate count.

The rest of the contests will simply run out the clock.

You really are kind of cute in your willingness to believe Hillary can still pull it out barring any major disaster to Obama. The clock is ticking.

April 26, 2008 6:36 PM

roidubouloi said:

Tep, I believe that it was the whiny self-pitying victimized Clinton who complained that "all the boys" were ganging up on her.  Obama is not the one who is shedding tears about how hard campaigning is.  If Hillary cannot handle critical comment from newscasters and the American public, just how the hell is she going to stand up to terrorists, Iran, and other malevolent forces in the world?

All of this has turned into campaigning by Goebbels.  Hillary is done, so now we get the BIG LIE!  It is Obama who is losing, it is Obama who crumbles in a tough campaign, blah, blah, blah.

Face reality.  Try.  Hillary is a lousy politician who despite every conceivable advantage "couldn't close the deal."  Not at the beginning of the campaign, not after super Tuesday, not afterwards, not in PA.  At every round of voting she falls further behind BECAUSE AMERICANS DO NOT WANT HER.  She is the second most disliked and reviled public figure in America after George Bush.

April 26, 2008 6:47 PM

roidubouloi said:

jacobt,

You are an authentic nutcase.  On May 7, Obama will be 170 pledged delegates ahead of Hillarious, the Lioness of Tuzla.  That is further behind than she was on the day before the PA primary.  On May 7, there will be only 217 pledged delegates left to choose.  The chance that she will recoup 170 delegates out of 217 is statistically so low as effectively to be zero.  Even Hilllary's campaign has now admitted that she cannot catch up.  

In that light, your claim that IN is a "must win" for Obama is completely whacked.  I would say it is a must-win for Hillary except that it really hardly matters one way or the other.  She is quite finished whether she wins it or loses it, but it is worth noting that 2 weeks ago the polls had her with a 7% lead in IN and now has Obama with a 3% lead.

Hilllary is a loser.  She keeps on losing.  At every turn of the cycle, she is further behind. The Hillarista insanity really has become like the scene of the Black Knight in Monty Python who continues to insist that he is winning after all his limbs have been hacked off.

April 26, 2008 6:54 PM

blackton said:

hemlock, maybe, honestly I can't stand the sight of her anymore, she reeks insincerity.

April 26, 2008 6:55 PM

cthulhu2008 said:

Lol

April 26, 2008 8:40 PM

pccostello said:

Why does Obama always want someone to give him an election instead of having to win it. In fact, Obama has never won a genuinely contested election. If he does get the nomination, no doublt he will start a campaign (which he will deny doing) to get McCain to quit the campaign before October. Obama's argument will be that if McCain withdraws in October, then Obama will be better able to unite the nation. The same way he has managed to unite the Democratic Party.

April 26, 2008 10:31 PM

newdex said:

Blackton, as far as Mich and Flor are concerned: I've heard that Obama's side has not exactly been eager for a revote.  I could be wrong and I don't have time to look it up now, but my understanding is that, even if they haven't declared themselves against a revote, they've been the opposite of helpful in trying to make it happen.  Whatever the details of the wrangling, the fact is that Obama's in the lucky position that doing nothing - ignoring the votes - is better for him.  This is conjecture I know, but I don't believe for a second that if thier circumstances were reversed thier positions wouldn't be too.  Same with pledged delegates.  Has Obama ever said they're not bound to support thier candidates?  Probably not, but he doesn't have to.  Its just a fact, and - again - If thier circumstances were reversed he probably would have.  At least to the same extent Hillary has, which is: not really.  

As for Hillary's superdelegate strategy: If you want to really be honest about it, with our crazy patchwork system of caucuses, open primaries, closed primaries, and primary/cuacuses, even having both a delegate lead and a popular vote lead doesn't absolutely guarantee that Obama is the preferred candidate to a majority of the people who would like to vote Democrat in the election - especially when the race has been as close as this one.  In all honesty, this race is a statistical draw.  With a delegate lead but not enough delegates to clinch it -  and only a slight popular vote lead - you really cannot truly argue that the electorate has decisively spoken.  In fact, to do so is a little cynical.  As in, taking a position which you know is not exactly true, but which advances your cause.  (clarification: I'm favorable to the argument that the superdelegates should go with the delegate/popular vote winner, but to insist that doing so would be unambiguously following the "will of the people" is a stretch)  

Ultimately, blackton, I'm sure you don't agree with much of what I've just said.  But my point stands: you're (and many Obama supporters') idea of Hillary's "nasty" campaign comes down to arguments you don't like and unfair interpretations of things she's said.  Has Hillary said that her victories are "worth more" than Obamas?  Even if she did use exactly those words you know as well as I that she was making a perfectly rational arguments about what thier different victories imply about thier electabilty in the general election.  Disagree if you want, but to insist that the argument is somehow "nasty" is, well, cynical.  

Both candidates have been attacking each other on thier "electability" for a long time.  HIllary's argued that Obama's too unknown and the GOP will tear him a brand new one, while Obama's argued all along that Hillary's just too much of a lying bitch.  One major difference is that the press has been actively working to prove Obama right for a long time (to quote you: "Anything that she does that leans in that direction shall be taken as confirmation that this is true.")  They've only recently started trying to prove Hillary right.  That's my point about the elitism thing.  I don't think either Obama or Hillary are elitists (I assume they're both hugely arrogant, but don't care).   But if the press follows the same guidelines they've followed in reporting on Hillary (which I bet they will), from now on everything he does remotely implying the possibility that he may occasionally in isolated circumstances under certain conditions dissaprove slightly of other people with less money or education than himself - it will be taken as concrete evidence that he hates rednecks.  

April 26, 2008 10:38 PM

jacobt1 said:

roidubouloi said:

"BECAUSE AMERICANS DO NOT WANT HER"

50% . AMERICANS DO NOT WANT HER, 50% AMERICANS DO NOT WANT HHHHHHHHHHHHHHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIMMMMMMMMMMMMM

DID YOU GET IT?

Take it easy. We'll be fine with McCain.

April 27, 2008 12:25 AM

miceelf said:

PCCostello. I am pretty sure that that twenty-something primaries and caucuses Obama won were contested.

Boo-yah!

April 27, 2008 12:28 AM

rozenson said:

"50% . AMERICANS DO NOT WANT HER, 50% AMERICANS DO NOT WANT HHHHHHHHHHHHHHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIMMMMMMMMMMMMM"

Mmm classic Bill O'Reilly tactic -- shout instead of backing up your answer with facts.

Unfavorability ratings from most recent Newsweek Poll:

Barack Obama 40%

John McCain 41%

Hillary Clinton 49%

April 27, 2008 12:44 AM

matthawk said:

I think the reason to be upset about Hillary's campaign ads, and the campaign itself, is this is the kind of politics one presumably is trying to replace that is practiced by the Republicans. Presumably many of figure that the politics of fear and diversion has not be healthy for the nation these past 8 years. If this is the kind of politics Hillary proposes to practice, and apparently it is, who wants any part of it? How can it be healthy for the republic? The politics of fear has a disempowering effect on the general public, not an empowering one. If the Democrats campaign on the same fear tactics as the Republicans, and try to see who can be the best war monger in the White House, they will lose of lot of the new and independent voters who were attracted to Obama.

April 27, 2008 12:50 AM

jacobt1 said:

rozenson,

Mmm classic Bill O'Reilly tactic -- choosing  polls you like:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds national Democratic voters evenly divided in their presidential nomination preferences between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

Clinton has also established a slight advantage over John McCain in general election preferences among national registered voters. The latest results, based on April 21-25 polling, shows Clinton at 47% and McCain at 44%.

Obama currently does not fare as well in the general election, only tying McCain at 45% in the latest polling

After losing Pennsylvania and a difficult month of scandals, Barack Obama's double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton has dropped to seven points in the latest NEWSWEEK poll.

The survey found that Clinton now trails Obama by seven points, down from 19 just one week ago.

April 27, 2008 1:36 AM

psantillana said:

isaac c - very very very well put.

jacob - the absolute champion blue ribbon winner, makes pccostello look like Bertrand Russell. He knows you are, but what is he? Tangle with him at your peril, blackton.

April 27, 2008 2:09 AM

peter1943 said:

roidubouloi, Boy, you don't do a lot for your credibilty when you call someone a nutcase in a post where you obliquely comparing Hillary to Goebbels. Seriously?

Two days ago you guys were comparing HRC to Stalin and Mugabe. Can you guys just pick one genocidal maniac and stick with it? I say get creative and go with Atilla or Cortez.

And the only thing more ludicrous than HRC trying to count the Michigan votes is anyone saying that Obama did anything but obstruct all attempts for Mi and Fla revotes. He had a  moment when he could have thrown his weight in favor of that and if he then kicked her ass at the polls I think even Hillary would tip her hat and withdraw. But he didn't. Why? Because it was the politically advantageous thing to do. Uh, sort of like what Hillary is trying to do.

But keep the comparisons of Hillary to despots coming! They are universally hilarious.

April 27, 2008 3:13 AM

roidubouloi said:

Sorry if the historical reference to Goebbels was too much for you peter1943.  Aprt from the fact that  Goebbels was the Nazi minister of propaganda, Goebbels actually had a theory about propaganda,  It included what today we typically refer to as "the Big Lie."  In a nutshell, when you tell a lie that is completely outrageous, a lot of people will be more, not less, inclined to believe it because it is so unmoored from reality.  Some will think that no one could possibly say such a thing so outrageous if there weren't some truth to it.  In other cases, the lack of referents that would be available for a small lie makles refutation difficult and people's brains just don't want to be bothered.  The dissonance is too great.  Also, it makes people uncomfortable to imagine that someone could be such a pathological liar so they prefer not to think so.  The technique exploits people's own honesty to make them accept something that, objectively, is outrageously contra to the facts.

The most recent amazing example in our politics was Swift-boating.  When Hillary starts claiming that she is winning the popular vote, as she has, that is a BIG LIE.  Page right out of Goebbels.  That doesn't make Hillary a Nazi, it makes her a liar.  But then, we already knew that, didn't we?

April 27, 2008 8:54 AM

roidubouloi said:

Selective polls indeed jacobt.  On April 16, ABC News polling said this:

"Among all Americans, 58 percent now say she's not honest and not trustworthy, 16 points higher than in a precampaign poll two years ago. Obama beats her head-to-head on this attribute by a 23-point margin.

The number of Americans who see Clinton unfavorably overall has risen to a record high in ABC/Post polling, 54 percent -- up 14 points since January. Obama's unfavorable score has reached a new high as well, up 9 points, but to a lower 39 percent."

April 27, 2008 9:06 AM

JackR said:

roid - For a while I was with you on the nomination of Obama being a done deal, but now I'm not so sure.  What worries me even more than his post-Wisconsin/Virginia losing streak, is his dispirited affect, his gloomy, exhausted demeanor, the disappearance of that wonderful sense of elan that lifted his candidacy above the pack and made Hillary look mundane and dull by comparison.  I would guess that he has been discouraged and drained by having to respond to the the back-to-back Wright and bittergate events.  I can understand it--who wouldn't be?--but it is not a good way to approach the final lap of the campaign marathon.

Obama needs a second wind.  I hope he has the inner resources to find it.

April 27, 2008 10:45 AM

jacobt1 said:

roidubouloi,

People trust Clinton over Obama:

In amassing her 10 percentage point win, Clinton had one of her strongest showings among white Catholics, who gave her a 44 percentage point margin over Obama and made up nearly a third of Keystone state Democratic primary voters. Among the most devout in this group, those who attend Mass at least weekly, Clinton won 3 to 1.

White Catholics have been a Clinton mainstay throughout the nomination contest. She has won the group by double-digits in 16 of the 22 states where data were available. In Pennsylvania, Clinton won 70 percent of all Catholics.

But among Protestants and other Christians, Obama's six percentage point win masks a sharp racial fissure. Black Protestants went for Obama, 93 percent to 7 percent, while white Protestants broke for Clinton, 59 to 41.

Voters who attend religious services weekly gave Clinton a double-digit margin, but this group, too, was divided by race. Black voters gave Obama a nearly 80-point margin, while whites went for Clinton by 36 points.

In the final 10 days, the campaign became focused on the role of religion after Obama made remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser that small town and rural voters "cling" to their faith because of government inaction. But Obama's overtures to this group were not successful. Among white rural and small town voters who attend services weekly, Clinton won 71 percent to 29 percent.

Obama prevailed by 24 points among nonreligious Pennsylvanians and by 10 points among those who rarely attend religious services.

Clinton won more than six in 10 Jewish voters, who made up 8 percent of voters in Tuesday's contest

April 27, 2008 10:58 AM

jacobt1 said:

roidubouloi said"

When Hillary starts claiming that she is winning the popular vote, as she has, that is a BIG LIE.  Page right out of Goebbels.  That doesn't make Hillary a Nazi, it makes her a liar.  But then, we already knew that, didn't we?"

Yes, you knew it. However, reasonable people understand the difference between a spin and a BIG LIE. . Obama supporters are not reasonable people.

April 27, 2008 11:01 AM

jacobt1 said:

JackR,

I've also noticed that he looks bitter now.

April 27, 2008 11:02 AM

roidubouloi said:

I agree Jack.  A presidential campaign is amongst the most grueling things imaginable.  I ran for a local office, got to sleep in my own bed every night, but had to do this every day for about 5 months and at the end I wanted to shoot myself.  It  is a distinct advantage for Hillary that she has been through this a couple of times and has a sense of the ebb and flow.  He does need to recover his sense of humor and elan.  I don't think he is in jeopardy, but it is not good to limp across the finish line.  One should also keep in mind that the slow pace of the primary season is actually worse than the general because the climax, in this case, takes so long to come.

I think Obama is less strained by the attacks than he is by the fact that he cannot respond in kind without compromising his support amongst Hillaristas in the general.  If you can punch back, it relieves the stress.  If you constantly have to take the incoming and refrain from responding, it is exhausting.

If I were the Obama campaign, I would pull together all of the polls on favorability and unfavorability and use them to challenge her claim to electability:

"The Clinton campaign has recently been trying to make an issue of "electability" and is urging upon the public and the media that this should be the basis for the decision by super-delegates as the vote on the nominee.  Apparently, the Clinton campaign does not believe that it can win a majority of delegates or votes in the primaries and caucuses and so they are grasping at this very last straw.  Senator Clinton has also said that her stream of attacks on Senator Obama are not attacks at all, but simply an opportunity for the public to "compare and contrast" the candidates.  Well then, we invite you to compare and contrast this: [            ]. We do not see how a candidate who is already regarded unfavorably and as dishonest by a clear majority of Americans can claim to be more electable.  If anything, this should be taken as the evidence that Senator Clinton is unelectable, but we won't go that far.  We merely want to call your attention to the fact that the Clinton campaign continues to make claims that are contrary to all available facts and evidence.  It is an unfortunate habit that does no good for the party's prospects in November."

April 27, 2008 11:14 AM

roidubouloi said:

You are quite right Jacob, reasonable people do understand the difference between spin and a BIG LIE, but Hillarious of Tuzla is consistently way over the line, in the lying direction that is.

Let's grant that your post above reciting a variety of statistics is just spin.  Remarkably, in the world according to Hillaristas, Hillary receives a distinct minority of votes but, when you add up this demographic, that demographic, and this other demographic, divide by the temperature humidity index on election day, add the number of Jewish-Catholic inter-marriages in the southeastern suburbs of LIttle Rock, and then subtract the rate of change of methane in the atmosphere, you realize that Hillary's minority is actually a majority.  Who would have thought?

In PA, Hillary did not "amass" a 9.2% victory (that isn't 10% jacob, it is either 9.2% or 9%, but you're not lying, you're just spinning).  "Amass" implies large.  9.2% is mediocre which is why she gained only 10-11 delegates.  Both candidates have done far better than that a number of times, and this was in a state whose demographics were highly favorable to her.  Further, "amass" implies gain.  Hillary won by only 9.2% because she was losing ground.  She went from 19+% in the polls a couple of weeks before to only 9%, losing more than half her prior support in a short time.  She didn't amass a victory, she barely hung on in a state that was very much hers.  I have no doubt that if Obama "amasses" only a 9% victory in NC, you will be the very first one to tell us how that mediocre showing in a state Obama was destined to win proves his unelectability -- adjusted for the temperature-humidity index of course.

The more you see of Hillary, the worse she does.  The more you see of Obama, the better he does.  That's why she is regarded unfavorably by 54% of the electorate.  That is why she is unelectable -- the more she campaigns, the worse she does.  58% of the public already thinks she is a liar.  The other 42% will catch up sooner or later.

April 27, 2008 11:26 AM

jacobt1 said:

roidubouloi said:

" She went from 19+% in the polls a couple of weeks before to only 9%"

 When Obama  starts claiming this  that is a BIG LIE.  Page right out of Goebbels.  That doesn't make Obama  a Nazi, it makes him  a liar.  But then, we already knew that, didn't we?

There were never 19% avr in polls.   There was maybe a single  poll, not polls.  This is an Obama spin. If you want to call Obama  Goebbels for such spin go ahead, I can't help you.

I don't think Obama is Goebbels , I think that many Obama supporters are not reasonable people.

April 27, 2008 12:07 PM

peter1943 said:

Roid, no matter how you slice it, Obama has the 90-10 support of the African American vote. He has definitively lost the Latino and White vote. He's lost the Catholic and Jewish vote. He has kept reasonably close in these demographics and overcome the deficits with the almost unanimous black vote. That's cool, every politicians puts together their own coalition, but to say that the more people see Obama the more they like him isn't proven by the stats. (Matter of fact, his popular vote lead is almost completely a product of his 400,000 vote plurality in Cook County). The commentator Steven Stark says we better hope Obama is putting together this new fantastic coalition because it sure doesn't look like he's going to get the requisite electoral votes the old-fashioned way.

April 27, 2008 1:16 PM

roidubouloi said:

No matter how you slice it peter1943, you are making things up.  You and all the Hillaristas are simply dreadfully confused about politics, at best.  You don't need to win every demographic slice.  If you can win some big and keep the others close, you win.  Black votes don't count more than white votes, white votes don't count more than hispanic votes.  It is the total that counts. Obama continues to lead Hillary in the polls because more voters prefer him to her.  This endless parsing of one demographic after another is inane because it has zero to do with winning and losing.  Hillary loses.  At every cycle of the primary vote she has been further behind.  Every one.  After the open.  After super-Tuesday.  After February.  After TX, OH, MS.  And in about 9 days she will be further behind than she was before PA.  This story that the more she loses the more he cannot win the general election is utter horsebleep.  If there is any single person in this race who could really be called unelectable, it is Hillary Clinton.  A clear majority of the American public has already decided that it views her unfavorably and this number has only risen steadily the longer she has campaigned.  She is so repellent a personality that if she got to campaign until November, 60% of the public would view her unfavorably.  

Jacob,

Whenever Obama goes into a state to campaign, his numbers improve against Hillary.  If she is leading, he cuts it down.  If he is winning, he builds his lead.  Happens over and over again.  I think you are wrong that the poll averages did not show Hillary at 19+% in PA before Obama went to work, but I am not sure quite how that info can be recovered.  I am going to work on it thoug.

April 27, 2008 1:43 PM

roidubouloi said:

March 16, the average of the last week's polls in PA had Hillary up by more than 17%.  Mid February she was up by 14%. The only January poll had her up by 20%.  In five polls going back to December, she was over 20%.

So, you are correct in this respect, jacob.  Her poll average never hit 19%.  The peak average seems to be north of 17% five weeks before the PA election.

What do you conclude from that? That Hillary amassed a great victory?  If Obama actually pulls more than 10% in NC, what will you say then?  That Hillary has suffered a great defeat?

April 27, 2008 2:03 PM

jacobt1 said:

roidubouloi,

Here is info.

www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

As you can see, his numbersdidn't  improve against Hillary . On avg it got worse.

So,  did Obam  used a page right out of Goebbels? :-)

April 27, 2008 2:04 PM

peter1943 said:

Roid, clearly I'm not making things up. You may disagree with my analysis of the data, but that's a little different from making things up. I'm not even arguing with the idea that Obama could win the general or that he's ahead of Clinton. He's ahead roughly 51-49, but to spin that as a sign that he is the next coming of FDR while demonizing Hillary as a despot is comical and a sure sign that if your mindset prevailed in November the only thing certain would be McCain's election. Seriously, do you think even your own candidate would agree with your cartoonish view of politics? I'm pretty sure if Obama saw you coming, he'd treat with the same mixture of condescension and dread as the Ebay autograph seeker.

April 27, 2008 2:34 PM

blackton said:

peter, how can you honestly make the argument that the second place candidate is better than the first? It is absurd on its face, and the notion that we should then give it to that candidate because we "hope" they can do better in November would be suicidal, alienating everyone who put that candidate in first. The Democratic party, just kinda Democratic.

I have mentioned no names in the above statement, and if you can show me where my logic is wrong I will concede it.

I liked Edwards 4 years ago, thought he was better positioned to take on Bush, but I accepted that Kerry, having won, earned the right to lose. And he lost. So be it. It is called Democracy. Why can't you accept it now? One vote or one million in a Democracy the winner wins.

Now just imagine what would happen if Hillary was given the nomination over Obama's clear lead and then lost in November. Can you imagine the recriminations? Is it really worth it?

If Hillary were in first, then I would accept she has earned the right to lose. Why doesn't Obama have that same right?

And to say the winner of the popular vote and delegate lead is not in first, then you might as well just make up your own language.

And please no, but the rules are unfair, if the rules were different Hillary would win, yeah and if pigs had wings they would fly. Address reality as is, not what you wish it were.

April 27, 2008 3:33 PM

teplukhin2you said:

re. roi, Geobbels,: Godwin.

April 27, 2008 4:05 PM

roidubouloi said:

jacob,

I simply cannot fathom what you are talking about.  I took a look at your link for the PA poll results.  It is a very nice graph that shows quite clearly and dramatically that Hillary's lead in PA polls narrowed from more than 20% early on to 7% today.  Yet you say that his numbers against her got worse.

Do you know how to read a graph?  He is the yellow line.  She is the purple line.  The gap narrows dramatically.

You say things like, "People trust Clinton over Obama."  But the ABC/WaP poll of April 16, which I understand is not much different in this respect than any other., says 58% of Americans regard Hillary as untrustworthy, 16 pts higher than a pre-campaign poll, and that Obama beats her by 23% on this measure.  So, again, what on earth are you talking about?

Based on the April 16 poll, they also said this:

"On the eve of their debate before the Pennsylvania primary next week, Democrats by a 2-

1 margin, 62-31 percent, now see Obama as better able to win in November – a dramatic

turn from February, when Clinton held a scant 5-point edge on this measure, and more so

from last fall, when she crushed her opponents on electability."

She cannot be more electable if more and more people do not want to vote for her, think she is dishonest, and view her unfavorably.  What on earth are you talking about?

Peter,

You say things like, "He has definitively lost the Latino and White vote. He's lost the Catholic and Jewish vote."  Says who? Lost it to whom? And by what margin? And in what states?  This sort of stuff is nonsense -- just making it up.   If Obama has lost all these "votes," as if there is a monolithic Jewish vote, Catholic vote, etc., then Hillary must have lost the votes of even more Democratic constituencies and national constituencies because fewer Democrats vote for her, fewer say they want her to be the nominee, and fewer voters generally want to vote for her in the general election.  It is not possible to reconcile your claims that Obama is a weaker candidate with the fact that he gets more support from Democrats and from the general public when asked their opinion about the GE and has won more votes and more delegates in the primaries.  

April 27, 2008 9:18 PM

roidubouloi said:

I do not maintain that Hillary is a despot, a wannabee despot or anything of the kind.  I maintain, with ample justification, that the lies she tells are now so spectacularly fraudulent ("I have won more votes.") that she is employing the propaganda techniques of Josef Goebbels -- the BIG LIE.  I stand by that claim, Godwin notwithstanding.  (And Goebbels was cribbing from Lenin.)

April 27, 2008 9:21 PM

aeromonas said:

At risk of taking a page from pccostello's book, here's a relevant blog post from TNR's former editor, Hendrik Hertzberg.

www.newyorker.com/.../after-pennsylva.html

April 28, 2008 1:20 AM