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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
24.04.2008
Is That NC GOP Ad Really That Hard to Figure Out?

This morning on NPR, I heard Renee Montagne and Juan Williams spend about 5 minutes talking about this anti-Obama ad--featuring Jeremiah Wright--from the North Carolina Republican Party. First Montagne and Williams discussed whether the ad would help or hurt John McCain (who's publicly denounced it). Then they discussed how Republicans have recently started to think that Obama is the weaker candidate and would prefer to face him rather than Hillary in November.

What they didn't mention at all is that the North Carolina GOP ad is intended to help Hillary in the May 6 primary. I mean, if the NC GOP really wanted the ad to help McCain, wouldn't they be running this ad in October or November? This is clearly an attempt to play the race and the Wright card against Obama in the hopes of hurting him in the Democratic Primary. Which suggests that there are at least some Republicans out there who still think Obama is the more formidable general election candidate. 

Now, granted, there's nothing Hillary can really do to stop the NC GOP from doing this. If the state party isn't going to abide by McCain and the RNC's demands that they take down the ad, they sure as hell aren't going to listen to Hillary. But it's pretty clear that she's the one who stands to benefit most from this ad.  

Update: Some TalkBackers raise some good points.

timcrim speculates that the ad has nothing to do with Obama or Hillary and is in fact designed to hurt the Democratic gubernatorial candidates. That, of course, is the fig leaf the NC GOP is using for the ad--tying the two leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates, who've endorsed Obama, to Wright. But, if the ad is really intended to damage these two North Carolina Democrats, why run the ad now? Wouldn't it make more sense to wait until one of the two is the nominee and then run the ad closer to the general election.

virginiacentrist and blackton both wonder whether the ad will spark a backlash and drive more black and independent voters to Obama. Perhaps. But I think Obama's support among black North Carolinians is already pretty high. And, while I think the ad could drive more independents to Obama, that could very well be offset and superceded by the folks I think the ad's really intended to sway: conservative Democrats in the eastern part of the state--the so-called Jessecrats who turned out for Jesse Helms over the years. My hunch is a lot of these voters--who are still nominally Democrats--intend to sit out the Democratic Primary, since neither Hillary or Obama is their cup of tea. But if they watch Reverend Wright denounce America enough times, maybe they'll be convinced to go to the polls to vote against Obama. 

--Jason Zengerle 

Posted: Thursday, April 24, 2008 9:34 AM with 21 comment(s)

Comments

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scire said:

of course. but these pundits now have it in for obama since they spotted a weakness, so they're doing their best to contribute to the weakness narrative.

April 24, 2008 10:02 AM

timcrim said:

Isn't it plausible that the NC GOP doesn't care whether Obama or Clinton gets the nomination and simply wants to hurt the Democrat running for governor?

April 24, 2008 10:04 AM

virginiacentrist said:

I dunno Jason. When Republicans hit Democrats with an unfair attack during a primary, that usually causes Democratic voters to rally around the victim.

Plus - NC is a much more educated state than Pennsylvania, where I would estimate that about 20% of the Democratic primary electorate was illiterate and had never owned toilet paper.  I suspect that racist ads in a Democratic primary in NC - a state increasinly dominated by educated voters - aren't terribly effective at swaying people. If anything - I'd expect that educated independents would also join in the backlash and rally around Obama.

April 24, 2008 10:11 AM

blackton said:

If playing the Wright card is so effective, then why hasn't Hillary used it before? Could it be that the backlash against it might be stronger than the benefits driving more blacks to the polls who would otherwise stay home?

April 24, 2008 10:12 AM

ramboorider said:

"Plus - NC is a much more educated state than Pennsylvania, where I would estimate that about 20% of the Democratic primary electorate was illiterate and had never owned toilet paper."

Hey, I resent that. I tried toilet paper once. Didn't much care for it so I never bought any more. Its a matter of choice. Aren't you pro-choice?

April 24, 2008 10:19 AM

kgrant1054 said:

"Ah, told ya.  This ad is clearly the work of the Obama campaign, playin' the race card once again.  They are shameless, do anything, cuttin'-to-the-head-of-the-line folks.  I knew this was bound to happen."  

                     -Bill Clinton

April 24, 2008 10:29 AM

cleavet said:

Shades of the "hands cumpling paper" ad during Jesse Helms' and Harvey Gantt's first tussle...

April 24, 2008 10:40 AM

ChanRobt said:

Maybe the ad is being run by Democrats to hurt McCain.

April 24, 2008 10:45 AM

tnmats said:

Chan, either you're cracking a joke (likely) or you're an idiot (not likely).  I'd like to think you're joking.

I live in North Carolina, have for almost all of my life (all but 7 years in purgatory, also known as Texas).  The ad is offensive on so many levels and is indeed designed to attack BO.  Last night on the local  news here in Raleigh the reporter interviewed the state's GOP leader and she of course said it was to attack the two Dem gubernatorial candidates.  The woman was downright creepy in how she never blinked once and had this robotic blank expression during the entire interview.  Then, they cut to an interview with Carter Wrenn. For those of you not familar with him, he's to Jesse Helms what Lee Atwater is to Bush Sr. or Rove is to Bush II.   Wrenn (not affiliated with repug politics anymore) said it was directly aimed at hurting Obama, no question.  BTW, Wrenn is the one who came up with Helms 'crumpled paper' ad.

The local TV stations and local papers are giving the ad big play, and giving it free airtime in their reports.  They practically showed the entire ad (along with the web link to see it) on all three major TV stations in this area. last night.  It is Jesse Helms-style politics, plain and simple.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.  For  senatorial seats and presidential elections, this kind of sleaze works in NC.  For state-wide races it almost always blows up in the pubes faces.  I know this will likely inflame any African-Americans in NC quite easily.  If they ran it before the national election I don't know what it would do.  Things changed a lot since Helms' days but sometimes I don't think they changed that much.

It's this kind of politicking that brings out the worst in me, wanting the dems to never never NEVER make nice with pubes.  I grew up with Helms' slash and burn style so I detest those tactics with a passion.  It makes me want to see all repugs personally destroyed.  It's also why I think of all GOP'ers are racist bigots.  Yeah, call me "bitter".

April 24, 2008 11:12 AM

alittleblackegg said:

Just another thing we're going to have to roll with. Since the Obama campaign dosen't want to make this an election about race, they have to artfully manuver around this sort of thing, refering to it indirectly as “politics as usual” or “the politics of fear.” Of course, those are digs that target both Clinton and the Republicans – rolling up Obama's critics on the left and the right into one ball. That makes me less concerned about the mini Republicans for Clinton movement that's bloosomed in the last month or so – it seems to confirm part of Obama's message.

Does that message work with dixiecrats? Probably not. I think this does hurt him in the short term in NC, and it demonstrates why Obama isn't a favorite to do well in the South in the general election either. Still, there might be a backlash against this sort of thing in the rest of country. Some democratic partisans, superdelegates, and indepenents might be galvanized by racebaiting and negative adds, so McCain is smart to quickly distance himself from it and Hillary should follow suit.

April 24, 2008 11:12 AM

wildboy said:

That toilet paper comment was totally out of line.  While it's technically true that many voters in rural Southwestern Pennsylvania do not use "conventional" toilet paper, their copies of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review have historically served (and continue to serve) as a fine substitute for toilet paper.  In fact, Lanny Davis's exit polls showed that at least 75% of them read the Trib's endorsement of Hillary in the "Democrat" primary right before going to the outhouse before driving their pickup trucks to vote at the local fire hall.

April 24, 2008 11:14 AM

tnmats said:

virginiacentrist, NC inside the big cities, namely Raleigh, Durham, Charlotte and Asheville are more educated than most of the state, that's for sure.  But get into the Triad (Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point) and other rural areas and the bigotry and ignorance factor is still quite high.  I'm from W-S and the lower education levels are apparent.  Even my brother (who lives in the Triad) quips that his IQ goes up 10 points once he crosses into Wake County (where Raleigh is located).

April 24, 2008 11:17 AM

chrismealy said:

atrios sez:

The Next Six Months

Some Republican or conservative group runs a dumb ad.

John McCain nobly distances himself from it.

Cable news spends all day talking about it and showing it for free.

Rinse. Repeat.

April 24, 2008 11:27 AM

tnmats said:

atrios is right.  The local TV stations in NC are already giving it free airtime, and the local newspapers are giving out the link and spilling lots of ink with page 1 coverage.  Why should the NCRC spend a penny to actually air the ad?  The "press" is doing their dirty work and even giving it a pseudo-stamp of being the truth.  Both HRC and BO will have these kinds of attacks to suffer from the pubes leveled at them from now on.

So when do the Dems do the same to McBush?  It's time to drag him in the mud.  I saw dredge up the same disgusting tactics used by  Bushie in 2000.  If it worked then maybe it'll work now.  And Obama or HRC can poo-poo and tut-tut it just as forcefully as Mr. Straight Talk.

Yeah, I'm bitter.  And proud to say it.

April 24, 2008 11:50 AM

jamilsmith said:

You notice that while McCain has repudiated the ad (publicly), Hillary hasn't done so yet.  She knows who it benefits, alright.

April 24, 2008 11:59 AM

The Plank said:

When Clinton surrogate Ed Rendell went out of his way to praise Fox News's campaign coverage last

April 24, 2008 1:14 PM

virginiacentrist said:

On the subject of slash and burn against McCain:

I support independent groups running ads about McCain cheating on his wives McCain's entire argument is his supposedly superior character. If we destroy that, then he's just a crazy old man who says "My friends" all the time.

I mean...the guy is running on superior "character". He has a war hero story. This is true. But doesn't that open up his whole life for examination? Or do we just give cede the whole character issue to him. So let's examine it, shall we?

April 24, 2008 1:21 PM

ChanRobt said:

thanks, tnmats, for the benefit of the doubt.  Yes, I was kidding.

April 24, 2008 1:53 PM

butchie b said:

VA, I don't see McCain running on "superior character."  His military history is well known, but I think it unfair to him to intimate that he has run as somehow "better" than his opponents on the GOP side, and I think he won't run that way in the GE.

That said, if y'all want to accuse him of cheating, etc., have at it.  Open his whole life.  It all matters.  But hell-raisin' John McCain is not running, IMHO as a holier than thou.

April 24, 2008 4:59 PM

tnmats said:

Chan, I may not agree with you much but I do honestly believe you're intelligent.  Right?  :-)

April 24, 2008 7:38 PM

tnmats said:

By the way, now I read that the NC GOP killed the ad:

www.reuters.com/.../idUSN2429689820080424

April 24, 2008 7:56 PM