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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
24.04.2008
Do Primaries Matter Come November?

Jon Chait made this point yesterday, but it bears repeating--especially since it now seems to have taken another big step toward becoming conventional wisdom c/o this NYT front page article:

[T]he Pennsylvania exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for five television networks and The Associated Press, underscore a point that political analysts made on Wednesday: that state primary results do not necessarily translate into general election victories.

“I think it differs state to state, and I think either Democrat will have a good chance of appealing to many Democrats who didn’t vote for them the first time,” said Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster not affiliated with either campaign. “Take Michigan. It has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, and many Democratic congressmen, so it’s probably going to be a pretty good state for the Democrats in a recession year.” [Emphasis added.]

Kudos to the Clinton campaign for somehow implanting the idea that her victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania mean she'd be the stronger candidate in those states come November. But it's just not the case. If it were, we'd be talking about Obama putting states like Mississippi and Alabama in play in the general election.

--Jason Zengerle 

Posted: Thursday, April 24, 2008 10:04 AM with 3 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

Yep. This is political science 101. No - actually it's Logical Reasoning 101. If something happens under one set of circumstances, you can't extrapolate those results to mean anything for a completely different set of circumstances. Another part of political science/phychology 101 is that human beings have trouble with hypothetical questions during a time of stress. All of these polls showing Democrats deserting the eventual nominee are just not true.

I'm surprised that John Judis doesn't understand this...I admire much of the guy's work, and I imagine he's feeling the wrath of Obama's internet crazies right now (my self included in that demographic).

The bottom line is that the Clintons seem to think that superdelegates are morons who are incapable of logical reasoning.

April 24, 2008 10:15 AM

roidubouloi said:

Oh, does this mean that the editors at TNR have finally stopped drinking the Hillary Kool-aid on vote-counting?  Wouldn't that be welcome.  But how come y'all have to read it in the Times before you get it.

It is not just that superdelegates are not morons.  They are professional politicians.  They live and die by knowing how votes are counted.  They really cannot be spun on this subject even if TNR editors can be.

April 24, 2008 11:49 AM

The Plank said:

The Economist 's Democracy in America blog , musing on these two Plank posts ( here and here ), poses

April 25, 2008 11:54 AM