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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
07.04.2008
What Should Come First?

A few days ago, Obama again told reporters that he'd like to give Al Gore a "major role" in his administration—something climate-related. Yes, Obama's angling for an endorsement, etc. etc. but I wonder… Every so often, like at last December's NPR debate, Obama sends off signals that he wants to make energy and climate change the centerpiece of his domestic-policy agenda if he gets elected. By contrast, it seems likely that Clinton would make health care her top priority. I'm sifting through tea leaves here, but that's my best guess.

Of course, both Democrats say they'd like to tackle both climate change and health care and revamp immigration and eliminate poverty and enact labor-law reform and overhaul education... and a million other things. But, realistically, a Democratic president in 2009 might only have the opportunity to do one or two "big" things in the domestic sphere, aside from the budget—especially if Iraq and the flagging economy suck up most of their time and attention—before they start to lose political capital and momentum. So the question of what, exactly, the candidates want to prioritize isn't trivial.

I don't know what the "best" answer here is (from a liberal standpoint, that is). Some climate scientists say we have less than a decade to start slashing carbon emissions in the United States if we want a shot at avoiding the worst effects of global warming (we'd also need to figure out how to get China and India to start curbing their emissions—and pronto). That's a good contender for top of the to-do list. But health care costs and access are pressing issues, too, and universal coverage is the kind of thing that could help cement a Democratic majority for years to come. Plus, universal health care might be easier to pass during an economic slump than a cap-and-trade bill that raises energy prices—even if there are ways to cushion the pain.

Anyway, a lot of observers have noted that Bill Clinton probably pursued his domestic policy agenda in the wrong order: i.e., From a tactical standpoint, he should've done welfare reform before health care, and he shouldn't have alienated organized labor with NAFTA right before he needed union support for his health care bill. I haven't seen anyone argue about what order the next president—Democrat or Republican—should try to do things, and, admittedly, it gets tricky when Iraq and the economy are tossed in to the mix. Thoughts?

--Bradford Plumer

Posted: Monday, April 07, 2008 6:01 AM with 31 comment(s)

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rozenson said:

It's a battle of the "big government tax-and-spend" liberal initiatives. It's also a battle of which lobby to piss off. Health care is certainly in crisis, but I feel that global warming is in such danger of reaching the red line of irreverisibility that it requires the more immediate action.

The environment doesn't speak as well personally to most voters as health care does, but there seems to be a good climate, if you will, to deal with green issues. With oil prices so high, "green" initiatives are taking flight. It's almost en vogue to be green now, as if companies seek a competitive edge with a "green" label. I think with the massive advertising campaign Al Gore and others have just started, the time may be right to push for national legislation on climate change. It's also a way to help restore America's image globally. This is an issue where the EU has really taken the lead and made a name for itself as a pioneer. We can't let Europe outdo us! Then again, they also have better health care than we do, by and large. But we're going to ignore that.

Sorry, Jon Cohn.

April 7, 2008 3:54 AM

sullydog said:

Politically? I dunno what's the best order.

Practically? The planet is the first priority. Universal coverage is kind of a waste if fisheries collapse, agriculture stalls and multi-drug resistant malaria makes it to Mason-Dixon line.

Both are first-order priorities, though, along with about a zillion other things. The next POTUS will have to be a multi-tasker, whether he likes it or not. If get a Dem in the WH, though, we'll have a united govt, and an electorate ready for change. Might make things easier.

April 7, 2008 5:01 AM

teplukhin2you said:

"the question of what, exactly, the candidates want to prioritize may not be trivial."

Gee, ya think? What, other than the glory and the grandeur  that are Obama, is his candidacy all about? What are his top two priorities that cause him to run? Does anyone have any idea? Does he have any idea, or is he just making it up as he goes along?

[DISCLAIMER: ididnotvoteforhillary ididnotvoteforhillary ididnotvoteforhillary]

April 7, 2008 5:02 AM

teplukhin2you said:

"I haven't seen anyone argue about what order the next president—Democrat or Republican—should try to do things, and, admittedly, it gets tricky when Iraq and the economy are tossed in to the mix. Thoughts?"

I'll bite. 90 day plan:

1. Redeploy troops from the Green Zone to a) north and south Iraq and b) Afghanistan. Related to this, tell the Germans esp and other continental Europeans that unless they immediately deploy not less than 5,000 troops in aggregate to combat zones in south Afghanistan, the US will consider NATO to be primarily an East European security organization and will reorder its purchasing (that means EADS) and basing strategies accordingly.

2. Make an incremental, not sweeping, step toward UHC. Sever the link between employment and access to health insurance.

3. Take on higher education: immediately require every university endowment to spend the first 2% of its investment income each year on scholarships for students from families earning <$200k per year (adjusted for real estate prices). At the same time, end federal support for colleges and university systems that employ race-based aff action schemes, and signal strong federal support for colleges and university systems that employ income based aff action schemes in their place.

4. Speak plain truths on our Mexico relationship. Express compassion for the illegals but be absolutely clear on the massive drain on our social services and the huge hit to low-end labor that this tidal wave represents. Propose an immediate action plan comprising a) an immediate end to the NAFTA carveouts for US agribusiness that enable dumping of cash crops into Mexico; b) serious border enforcement; c) creation of a joint US-Mexican high-level commission to study Ireland's success in transforming itself from a piss-poor exporter of people to the top of the world income tables in less than one generation and recommend a program of top-down US and Mexican joint investment in infrastructure and education in Mexico withan explicit goal of raising incomes and keeping Mexicans in Mexico.

April 7, 2008 5:18 AM

ramboorider said:

I think health care, as critical as it is, will pale in significance relative to the economic / environmental / international implications of taking on global warming. The combination of moving energy over to greener sources with the new jobs that would come out of that transition, the reduced dependence on oil (mostly foriegn from here on out), the relationship of that to our foreign policy, and the fact that we (globally - not just at home) would suffer far fewer HUGE economic dislocations from global warming over the next couple of decades.....

Well, that stuff is make or break for our continued pre-eminence in the world and probably our very survival as a dominant species. A lot more people will die due to not dealing with the environment than will die because of a poor health care system. I'm not sure you couldn't launch both efforts on parallel tracks, but if you have to choose, you gotta go with energy/global warming stuff first. It's just to planet-altering and will also have positive economic impacts.

April 7, 2008 6:13 AM

lymon1 said:

Love Tep, don't care for his 90 day plan.  I think in your first 90 days you hit your legislative priorities since who knows when you'll get a "honeymoon" again.  Iraq is in the President's control of course so that's in.  But if education is your thing, I go for the elementary, not school years.  So, here's my 90 day plan:

1.  Raise mandatory CAFE limits and pass large subsidies for new nuclear power plants as part of a comprehensive energy bill which can include other things as well (I'll barter opening ANWAR)

2.  Immigration:  See Arizona on how to treat employers, repair verification system, create a fund to help transition families who want to return to home countries, continue work on border fence.  I like Tep's idea about improving Mexican infrastructure but that nation squandered NAFTA jobs and their oil revenues more because of corruption than lack of funding -- I think they need internal political pressure more than anything.

3.  Education: I want large scale experimentation with public school choice and first-priority-hires going to students with high SAT scores (there's a study showing this a bigger factor in improving bad schools than anything else).  Big subsidies to local school districts/states who make it possible.

(Alternate plan -- take the No Child Left Behind Act and actually fund/enforce it).  

4.  Iraq:  We set a date to leave but not immediately -- maybe 1 year -- except that we leave in 3 months if they don't finalize their oil deal with 1) us dropping our attempts to keep a Western hand in controling it and 2) it's trully federal -- all existing and new wells go pro-rata by population, which keeps the Sunni areas from becoming poorer than the Gaza Strip.  

April 7, 2008 6:19 AM

miceelf said:

Shouldn't what's more immediately possible figure into the ordering? It's not like the president can push a button and eliminate pollution/global warming. He can, however, literally do that with regard to Iraq.  I like some of Tep's plan, too, but agree that by the time we get to college, it's a little late for many kids.

April 7, 2008 6:37 AM

roidubouloi said:

What should come first are the one or two things that are 1) achievable and 2) will accumulate the most political capital for the new president.  The first criterion is enormously complicated by the fact that the Republicans will try to prevent anything whatsoever from being achieved.  The essence of Republicanism is to block anything useful from occurring during a Democratic presidency and steal as much as possible during a Republican presidency.  The will do anything and everything to prevent whatever might be considered a Democratic success -- for no other reason and totally without regard for the good of the nation.  With that in mind, a filibuster-proof Senate majority would make a huge difference.

It will be the new president's job to maneuver public opinion in such a manner that the Republicans are forced into a minimum of cooperation.  Indeed, this is the reason why Obama would be a much better president than Hillary.  It will not be enough to "survive" Republican attacks.  It will be necessary to suppress the Republican urge to resist and inspire the public so that public opinion forces the Republican hand.  These are both tasks for which Obama is far better suited than is Hillary.  (No, the job of president is not policy-wonk in chief or bureaucrat in chief.  It is politician in chief.  Wonks and bureaucrats can be hired.  Political talent is the single most valuable quality for a president.)

Having said all that, my picks are A) with the support of a raft of generals and admirals, set a date a year or so out for withdrawal of most US forces in Iraq and be prepared to maneuver politically in Iraq as the political/militia structure starts to adjust to the reality of US withdrawal and B) health INSURANCE reform.

This too long a discussion for me at the moment but it is principally our health finance system that is broken, not healthcare (except insofar as it responds to the perverse incentives of the health finance system).

These two things, if accomplished successfully early on, will produce the greatest political capital and goodwill.  After that, I would go for climate change and immigration reform simultaneously as almost a single deal -- a good way to force both liberals and conservatives to bend.

April 7, 2008 7:32 AM

fougasseu said:

I agree 100% with tep's 90-day plan, I would add my #5:

1. Radically decrease the privatization of services throughout the military and government in general.

Do it in two parts, one negative, one positive.

The negative: Expose the horrendous amount of crony capitalism (e.g., Dubai) and war profiteering (e.g, Halliburton).

The positive: Create programs to motivate young people to pursue careers in the military and government in general.

April 7, 2008 7:46 AM

The Ignorant Populist said:

"...but that nation squandered NAFTA jobs and their oil revenues more because of corruption than lack of funding."

Actually, that popular theory is wrong Lymon.  In 1976, under the president of Portillo Mexico had undertaken an impressive modernization program. Portillo had determined to use the countries oil for this and had even undertook to build a nuclear power plant. Roads, ports, petrochemical facilites, irrigated agriculture and more were targetted for investment.

The 1981 interest rate shock, quickley followed by the run on the Peso, which was started by media reports from Probe International put an end to this program.

By Feb 1982, Portillo was forced to impose a draconian austerity program in the desperate hope of stemming the flood of capital out of the country. He eventually cracked and the Peso was devalued. Overnight, Mexican companies that had borrowed Dollars for investment were bankrupt. The devaluation also resulted in inflation and huge cuts in those investment programs.

The capital flight continued, and money flowed out of the country into speculative real estate in the US. $76 odd billion's worth that was being invested in the country was now heading to the Wall Street casino.

Enter the IMF scam. To obatain access to credit Mexico had to devalue the Peso further and cut subsidies for foodstuffs and other "extravagent government spending". Furthermore, the Mexican govt was forced to undertake all of the national debt from the private sector. By 1985 Mexican debt to the IMF donars (Citibank and Chase Manhattan mostly) went from 82 Billiion to over 100 Billion.

See study by Danish economist Hans K Rasmussen, commissioned by UNICEF. Long story short - 1979 40 Billion flowed from the rich North to the poorer South for their commodities. Following the two oil shocks and Volckers interest rate shocks and other events this has been reversed and the South now sends over 60 Billion a year to the richer North. In effect borrowing to pay off the interest of the debts and giving their resources away for free.

This is what allowed Regean to finance his record deficits.

The above figures does not take into account capital flight from countries such as Mexico.

Mexico currently owes foreign banks (London - NY) about 60 Billion. query.nytimes.com/.../fullpage.html

If you want to help Mexico invest in it's infrastructure then attack the debt. This is the quickest and easiest way to solve your immigration program.

I agree with Tep on point 2 and 3.

April 7, 2008 8:04 AM

lymon1 said:

micecelf -- I'd contend that this is the difference between leadership and, well, hackdom is too strong a word but "politics as usual."  It's like a CEO who puts shorterm improvement to make themselves look good ahead of longterm growth.  It will take years for us to get off foreign oil and onto nuclear and other cleaner energy forms, but if we don't start now we're almost guaranteeing we will continue to decline on the world stage -- both economically and politically.

April 7, 2008 8:08 AM

lymon1 said:

IP -- but NAFTA was the early 1990's.  Copious numbers of manufacturing jobs moved to Mexico ("giant sucking sound") but are now in China.  And their oil revenues in just this decade must have at least doubled.  

April 7, 2008 8:10 AM

ChanRobt said:

Obama would like a major role for Al Gore teaching him how to become a mega-buck eco-pimp.  Learn how to turn pseudo-science b.s. into $60 million and a "Nobel Prize," now a devalued joke.

Al Gore is a major league charlatan.  As will soon enough become clear to all who are buying his folly right now.

Al Gore's way of making money is enough to make the Clintons look legitimate.

April 7, 2008 8:30 AM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Yep, sh*t wage jobs are in Mexico all right. Blackton will tell you there's no shortage of work, just a shortage of decent paying jobs. Even now, Mexico has it's begging bowl out, trying to get the banks to stop turning the screw. See NY times article I link too.

The irony (a profitable irony) is that the banks were demanding Mexico stabilise the Peso with brutal austerity programs that have resulted in this dirt poor uneducated proles, as they're called in TNRland, while at the same time taking 50 odd Billion in interest payments AND more than 100 Billion in capital flight from the Latin American countries! A lot of that 100 Billion was drug money from cocaine gangsters or "high net worth" individuals as they are called - Merril Lynch pioneered this laundering in the 80's.

So, scrap the debt. They've paid tenfold what they shouldnt' have owed in the first place. Then watch as Mexico and the rest of Cental America recovers and becomes a workers paradise, free from greedy bankers.  Ah utopia.

April 7, 2008 8:43 AM

sullydog said:

Chan: what I love about your posts is you're a perfect reverse bullshitometer.  If you think global warming is a hoax, that just tells me it's an even bigger problem than we think.

April 7, 2008 12:00 PM

bsdespain said:

"Obama would like a major role for Al Gore teaching him how to become a mega-buck eco-pimp.  Learn how to turn pseudo-science b.s. into $60 million and a "Nobel Prize," now a devalued joke."

Chan you got anything but random ad hominem attacks? You know if current theories of global climate change remain correct (and they have been accurate so far) will the people that claimed it a complete load of crap (such as yourself) eat crow and admit you are wrong? Somehow I don't think so.

BTW what specifically do you find wrong the current global climate change models. I should warn you though this is kinda a briar rabbit for me since I am pretty familiar with the computer models. Of course we will know definitively in the next 5-8 years anyway.

BSD

April 7, 2008 12:02 PM

AlanSP said:

Some environmental reforms will be a whole lot easier to get done than others.  Investing in alternative energy research, creating "green" jobs, etc. will be a whole lot easier politically than implementing a cap and trade bill or some other emissions control legislation that will raise energy costs.  The timing (in the midst of a flagging economy) would be a very tough sell.  Pushing this through first would probably come at great expense to other legislative goals.

April 7, 2008 12:03 PM

teplukhin2you said:

what roi said. The most important thing is to choose something big and urgent and then SUCCEED at it. Success breeds success.

sully, curious to see your 90 day plan. Is there an incremental approach to health insurance that would yield a quick and big win without getting bogged down at Stalingrad, so to speak, over UHC?

April 7, 2008 1:00 PM

teplukhin2you said:

I like lymon's CAFE standard increase + nukes + compromise on ANWR idea.

While we're in bartering mode, Obama should push through means-tested vouchers in big urban school districts in exch for scraping NCLB. If the funds saved from an immediate withdrawal from Iraq were to be earmarked toward some worthy bipartisan use-- eg reducing the deficit or stabilizing soc sec'y-- then I'd be for that barter as well.

April 7, 2008 1:05 PM

ironyroad said:

Al Gore is a distraction.  In fact, he's not even Al Gore, he's "Al Gore."  And even if he's the biggest fraud in American history, that doesn't change the reality of global warming which almost no serious scientist disputes.

April 7, 2008 2:45 PM

butchie b said:

Politicians often want to DOOOOO something, even when doing nothing is preferable.

We can go on about global warming until we're blue in the face, but the fact is that nothing the US does will even make a dent in the problem.  First, it's not clear to me and many others that most of the problem isn't natural, sun-spots and all that.  But to the extent that mankind makes it worse, we'd better adapt.  Because the world keeps adding people, and many of those already here want to live, drive and consume like, well, us.

Any agreement without China and India is worthless, and so far they ain't playing.  No American President can ask the people for sacrifices when the other world powers won't lift a finger.  Cap and trade is the best way forward, IMHO, but let's not pretend that such a sytem will "solve" the problem.

April 7, 2008 3:57 PM

JEFF FREY said:

I agree with roidubouloi here -- climate can wait for after the first 100 days. The goal has to be to build momentum. The first few weeks should be about picking off some easy wins -- things that can be done by the President him/herself, or that will pass Congress fairly easily. Then you unveil one of your big items that will take some work to get through Congress. If there are too many irons in the fire at once, you can't keep the Republicans with fire extinguishers off them all. Fight one battle at a time. If you keep winning, the honeymoon will last. But if you start losing (example: gays in the military), then your honeymoon is over.

The biggest problem with tackling climate change first is that the effects are so long term. But it should be a winning strategy to couple it with energy policy. I'd suggest a BIG program for research in renewable energy, especially solar. Take the advice of a TNR article from last fall and make it the policy of the US to make green energy cheap. Oil will probably never be cheap again. Avoid the BS like hydrogen economy. Higher CAFE standards are a good idea, and incentives for saving energy. Sell people on the idea that we need to use less energy in order to preserve our freedom and way of life. Which is true in the long term.

April 7, 2008 5:06 PM

cjzydeco said:

I think energy independence and health care should be the top priorities. Global warming and energy independence are closely related from a technical point of view, so they could be attacked almost together. Energy independence will come from aggressive development of alternative and renewable sources, and most of these will reduce the carbon footprint.

Health care stands alone as a core issue, and is in critical condition, given it is tied to employment and we are heading south in the economy.

While global warming is a serious concern, but the immediate effects on the pocketbooks of voters is largely in the future. But getting free of Russian and Middle East oil would solve a whole host of problems. And energy independence is tied to foreign policy, so you begin to attack that problem as well.

so energy independence and health care should be the main thrust.

April 7, 2008 5:16 PM

sullydog said:

"sully, curious to see your 90 day plan. Is there an incremental approach to health insurance that would yield a quick and big win without getting bogged down at Stalingrad, so to speak, over UHC?"

Good question. I think Hillary's plan comes closest to such an increment, but I hate Hillary's plan. Personally, I think any nascent UHC will be strangled in its crib by the insurance industry unless we strangle the health insurance industry first, or at least tie their hands and pull their fangs.

So I guess I'd start there. It just can't be that hard for a new president to say to the American people: "the health insurance industry has been pounding your fudge with a white-hot crowbar for twenty-five years," because the American people already know that. Cast them as the villains that they are, hold hearings on fraud and abuse, and while they're busy trying to wipe off the mud, pass legislation that gives every pre-retirement American the chance to buy into Medicare at a fraction of what it would cost to buy into private health insurance, maybe with some tax credits to boot. There's your UHC, an infusion of badly-needed revenue for Medicare, and a kick in the dick to the HMOs. Three birds, one stone.

There, that's just one crazy-ass idea idea out of the blue. With more time and coffee I might come up with something better.

April 7, 2008 5:33 PM

sullydog said:

Jeff has a good point, one I hadn't factored into my own analysis.

April 7, 2008 5:34 PM

psantillana said:

lymon I like your plan, but I'm not sure about this part, because I'm not sure what it means:

"first-priority-hires going to students with high SAT scores (there's a study showing this a bigger factor in improving bad schools than anything else)."

Do you mean that priority in hiring should be given to the teachers who had the highest SAT scores back in the day, or using the best teachers on the highest scoring students, or -? Something else? Is there a link showing the correlation? I'd like to see any info on the correlation of SAT scores to anything. I used to teach SAT, and we were told there was no correlation between scores and grades or scores and IQ, but there was between scores and income of the student's family, and between scores and race. And they never gave us a source for that, so I have no idea where that comes from.

April 7, 2008 11:52 PM

Environment and Energy said:

On The Plank , Brad raised the question of what policies a president should pursue first. I feel like

April 9, 2008 5:12 PM

Environment and Energy said:

Over at Grist , Anna Fahey posts a persuasive set of facts and counterclaims geared at convincing those

May 1, 2008 1:57 AM

Environment and Energy said:

Over at Grist , Anna Fahey posts a persuasive set of facts and counterclaims geared at convincing those

May 1, 2008 10:34 AM

Environment and Energy said:

Yesterday at the Center for American Progress, John Podesta spoke with SEIU President Andy Stern about

September 11, 2008 5:55 PM

The Plank said:

Yesterday at the Center for American Progress, John Podesta spoke with SEIU President Andy Stern about

September 11, 2008 6:39 PM