THE NEW REPUBLIC

11.02.2008

Virginia's Second Thoughts on McCain

Yes, yes, Mike Huckabee will never win the GOP nomination. But amid all the Clinton-Obama jockeying, the volatility Huck's introduced on the Republican side - where McCain was supposed to have everything wrapped up on Super Tuesday - couldn't be more delicious. Check out the most recent Virginia polling:

Eve of VA GOP Primary 2/11/08: Huckabee Closes-In On McCain
Big movement in Virginia following Mike Huckabee's strong showing over the weekend in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. On the eve of the Virginia Republican Primary, it's John McCain 48%, Mike Huckabee 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, McCain is down 9, Huckabee is up 12. McCain had led by 32, now leads by 11. Among Conservative voters, McCain had led by 21, now trails by 5. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 20 points, now trails by 6. Among voters in Southeast VA, McCain had led by 28, now trails by 12. Among voters focused on Immigration, McCain had led by 16, now trails by 17. Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had led by 24, now trails by 2.

What does it say about the firmness of McCain's support when, within 72 hours, McCain loses 26 points among conservative voters?

-- Eve Fairbanks

Posted: Monday, February 11, 2008 4:30 PM with 4 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

His biggest problem is a reverse NH problem (CW says that independent males flocked to the GOP race because they'd heard all of the "blowout" talk in the media).

The democratic race has the intensity and excitement (even though it's likely to be a blowout - most folks don't read polling data). Many indies think that's where their vote counts.

At the end of the day, I think he'll crush Huckabee amongst military voters in the Tidewater and rich NOVA Republicans.

February 11, 2008 4:57 PM

fougasseu said:

So the GOP base is trying to keep from winning the most conservative candidate in the race, because he's trying to keep from winning the candidate that the GOP base tried to keep from winning. Is that it? And this is the crowd that "planned" the war in Iraq. Good grief.

February 11, 2008 5:02 PM

teplukhin2you said:

This shows that evangelical conservatives are idiots. The lack of support from such people only reflects well on McCain's candidacy and makes him a stronger and more attractive candidate in the GE.

February 11, 2008 6:03 PM

williamyard said:

Sunday I heard George W. Bush on TV talking about the "the Democrat party."

This morning I heard John McCain on the radio talking about "the Democrat candidate."

Plus ca change,...

February 12, 2008 2:03 PM