I Majored In Miracles: The Mike Huckabee Story

You know, this makes sense.  Remeber the loaves and fishes, heathens..  Huckabee only has one basket full of delegates right now, but come the convention, he will start unpacking them, and verily they will mulitply, till they fill the hall, overflowing with righteous votes and draped in holy flag-themed hats.   And it will be good.

So, is he railing against pagan math?  Like, if you believe strongly enough 2 + 2 does not equal 4?  Listen, I believe in miracles as much as the next guy*, but it isn't going to happen.   You can't pray away this huge gap.  

*Next guy: Richard Dawkins

boneill - what about the fried squirrels?

Fried squirrels are a different miracle, bcbaird.    They come dropping from the sky, like manna on the rocky Sinai wasteland.   Get your hick/Bible comparisons straight.  

maybe the math Huckabee is looking at is 71 years old there is an X% chance of McCain dropping dead before the convention and he will be there to pick up the pieces.

To be honest, I thought he was sticking around to be a sacrificial lamb for McCain, so McCain can take his victory laps and not be drowned out by the cheers for the Dems. but I never imagined he would actually fight hard.

Actually, Huckabee has a bit of a point here that everyone else (including Russert) seems to be missing.  Sure, Huckabee can't get more than 50% of the delegates leading into the convention, but that may not be necessary.  The more important question is whether he can deny McCain more than 50% of the delegates prior to the convention.  When you add up the numbers of the delegates pledged to Huckabee, Romney, Paul (and yes, Rudy's one delegate), that number isn't too far off of McCain's total.  If the conservatives truly rise up against McCain, that brokered convention could still happen.  Still a bit of a longshot, but the math does work on that possibility.  Either way, McCain probably is still nominated, but it could end up bloody.

Brent -

Are there GOP super delegates?

Virginiacentrist:

My memory was that there are, but not as many as in the Democratic party.  If Wikipedia is to be believed, there are a total of 123 "unpledged" delegates to the GOP convention, mostly consisting of party officials.

Hope that helps.

The only math that matters is whether Huckabee gains the GOP ticket more staunch conservatives than he loses it independents.

If it's Obama vs. McCain/Huckabee, Obama gets the indies and M/H the fundies. If it's Clinton vs. M/H, the latter get both. If it's Obama vs. McCain/generic center-right 'Pub, the indies split and the fundies sit. If it's Clinton vs. M/gc-rP, the latter again get both, although fewer fundies. (I'm betting they're more willing to vote against Hill than allow her to win.)

McCain has the advantage of the later convention, so he can wait to see who the Donkeys run. There are more indies than fundies, and this year the former are awake and gunning for bear. Thus I'd say McCain will chose Huck if Hill is the nominee, and an anti-Huck to at least attempt to buck Barack.

I actually know a little bit about the schools Huckabee attended and none of them have a major in miracles.  A short, cold-ridden way of saying that if Huck keeps up this kind of hubris he will shoot himself in the foot with even the diehard fundies.

I assume Huckabee is continuing his run because:

(a) he's no longer Governor, so running for president is now his day job,

(b) his impressive delegate wins are coming without him/his campaign spending that much money.  The money crunchers out there showed that Giuliani spent like $50 million for one delegate and Romney 10$ million (I'm making those numbers up, but I think TPM did the research) - compared to them, Huck's getting a crazy value for his expenditure.  What I would expect from a squirrel eater.

(c) a few months ago he was virtually unknown, now he's a national figure.  Again, a very cheap expenditure for a great return (for someone who seems to be full of himself)

(d) Second & Third tier candidates (Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Paul, Huckabee, Kucinich) are in the race for one of three reasons.  Either to audition for VP or a cabinet post (Biden) or to be a viable alternative if things implode with the front runner (e.g. blackton's death scenario), or to broadcast what they think is an important idea (e.g. Ron Paul, Kucinich).  In this light, Huckabee is probably doing this to either get VP/Cabinet.  Or maybe McCain's ambassador to the Grand Duchy of Hazzard.

Or if Johnny Mac loses, he'll be in the front row for 2012.  Hell, who knows?  I do think there is a lot to Yard's analysis above, and the late convention helps McCain.

Once again, if y'all nominate HRC, McCain wins, even with bin Laden on the ticket.  Not only will EVERY GOPer vote against HRC, most indies and even some Dems (Blackie, I'm looking at you) will do so.  She has no chance.

BHO, OTOH, will be a much tougher nut to crack.  Then, maybe Pawlenty or Sanford or Palin or Crist or Jindal.  We got a million of 'em, folks.

TNR talkback has the best comments on the internets.

btw, I disagree with yard.  I don't think the fundies will sit, nor will the indie split in the McC v. O'B scenario.  I think campaign dynamics and events (a terror attack favoring McCain, a recession favoring the Dem) will be pivotal, you know, the stuff we can't predict.

Re: Huckabee's rationale, I think everyone above nailed it.  I like the idea that Huck may hope for a brokered convention or a McCain coronary, but I don't think it will happen.  If anybody drops dead we all know it will be Cheney.  Huck will probably drop out by April.