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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
06.02.2008
California Racial Composition

So, having been disastrously wrong in my analysis of the dueling California polls, I owe SurveyUSA an apology and congratulations: they alone constructed a likely-voter screen that predicted the amazing, historically unprecedented surge in Latino turnout, which accounts for Hillary's margin of victory. The Field poll, which predicted Obama winning very narrowly and which I'd assumed would be close to correct, actually got more or less the right breakdown within each racial group (the white vote was split equally between the two).

What they (and I) missed, by a mile, was the racial composition of the electorate. They predicted 20 percent Latino/12 percent black. It was actually 29 percent Latino/6 percent black (a decline in relative black turnout since 2004, and a near doubling in relative Latino turnout), which could mark a major turning point in California Democratic politics. What this suggests is that Latinos aren't going for Hillary by default or thanks to name recognition: there appears to be a genuine and positive enthusiasm for Hillary in the Latino community. (She also ran up surprisingly big margins among Asians, 75-23.) He did slightly better among Latinos elsewhere--losing only 55-41 in Arizona, for example--but this is going to be a major hurdle for him in Texas on March 4. Judis was right.

Incidentally, SurveyUSA had a great night all around. I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords

--Josh Patashnik 

Posted: Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:43 AM with 7 comment(s)

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lymon1 said:

I don't think it's enthusiasm for Hillary, but enthusiasm to be a power-broker.  If Latinos deliver the nomination to Hillary then she owes them bigtime.  If they don't, well, try winning the general election without them (McCain isn't anathema the way other GOPers would be) and in a worst case scenario time is on their side.  And make no mistake: in southern california, black-brown relations are not good -- when you have ethnic clensing by gangs and the Long-Beach-Compton congressional district of all places turning Latino, some of that will filter into voting.  Similarly, I suspect that Jewish support for Obama will be higher outside of New York, where there's a historic vibe of bad relations versus the generally more favorable relations elsewhere (though I haven't seen Cali numbers on this)

February 6, 2008 11:04 AM

eweiss said:

Can we officially agree as a group that John Zogby is a blowhard and that his polls are worthless?

February 6, 2008 12:41 PM

tomeg said:

lymon1 though what you say about So. Cal. black/latino tensions here is true, I don't think it accounts for the overwhelming support among Latinos for the Clintons, who have built solid relations with Latino politicians and community leaders over many many years. By contrast, Obama just isn't nearly as well known here, and I think the same may be said about his familiarity throughout the Southwest. Latinos know Hillary and trust Bill's record of delivering for California in funding and political support that benefits Latinos directly and indirectly. Obama can't compete, he's almost off Latinos' radar screens politically. I expected Clinton to win here easily, and as remarkable her margin of victory may seem, it doesn't surprise me one bit.

February 6, 2008 2:31 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

While the racial breakdown in the CA has been very interesting, as a CA (Long Beach) native I have to say that the power of the unions in that state hasn't been discussed much today. The unions have long term relationships with the Clintons and they have *clout.*

February 6, 2008 2:59 PM

irunkle said:

I believe that Obama did make some inroads into getting Latino votes. But I feel that he really is going to have to do much more - dedicate more resources, more time and energy to specific problems of the Latino communities in the US. Part of the test will be just to make sure his positions are known  - on immigration reform, etc. But I would like to see other areas discussed, for example, bilingual education proposals. In my experience, bilingual children equate the language of Math, Science with power - and if the language you're taught Math in isn't your first language- not only is it more difficult to catch on, but also you are heading into self-esteem problems. Furthermore, many experiences have demonstrated that teaching Math in English AND in the language spoken at home makes it easier for kids to learn. AND bilingual programs that make it easier for the kids of monolingual English families to really learn another language well will certainly be a plus for their future - and we all know that bilinguals have better abstraction capacities that monolinguals. Pre-school bilingual programs could be important as well.  Obama's been to school abroad - he needs to draw on his own experience as an immigrant in Indonesia, as well as being the son of an immigrant. In any event, for me, reaching out to the Latino community is, of course, not an electoral issue - it's strategic for change. I personally think he could do this much better than Hillary. Her "35 years of experience" do not seem to have been oriented towards the solution of social problems. I still can't figure out how being a corporate lawyer, and on WalMart's board constitutes  useful "experience, " Nor do votes that enable AGGRESSION against other countries without getting the facts right indicate anything other than being a hawk, with poor judgement to boot.

February 6, 2008 3:41 PM

thejauntyboulevardier said:

I never listen to John "300 Kerry electoral votes" Zogby...not since that fateful night in Nov 04 when he totally messed up mind for weeks...

February 6, 2008 3:42 PM

The Plank said:

After the California primary, I mentioned that what set SurveyUSA apart from all the polls (and prognosticators

February 26, 2008 7:18 PM