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04.02.2008
Obama Sets His Goalposts

Via Marc Ambinder, here's the key part of the Obama campaign's expectations-setting memo for February 5:

We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

So, unless the Obama campaign has dreadfully wrong internal polls or is just incredibly stupid (the former more plausible than the latter), look for him to finish well within 100 delegates of Hillary tomorrow. Otherwise, even by Obama's own terms, he will have lost Super Tuesday. 

--Jason Zengerle 

Posted: Monday, February 04, 2008 1:44 PM with 8 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

I don't think he has a chance in Hell tomorrow. This ends the whole race:

politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/.../clinton-holds-emotional-meeting-at-yale

February 4, 2008 2:11 PM

rozenson said:

vacentrist, you were right about Hillary's eyes watering up now that she's in trouble. Guess Obama is doomed now.

February 4, 2008 2:23 PM

primwallflow said:

Yep, crying at Yale is sure to win over working-class Dems.

February 4, 2008 2:30 PM

drdannyu said:

You're flogging that link pretty hard there, Virginia.  

February 4, 2008 2:40 PM

aeromonas said:

VAC's just trying to inoculate himself against depression should Obama underperform tomorrow.  He felt the pain of dashed hopes post New Hampshire all too acutely.

February 4, 2008 3:30 PM

aeromonas said:

Me, I'm optimistic about Obama's chances.  And nobody gives a shit about Hill 'misting up.'  It's a non-story this time around, the only marginally non-stale angle a journo could take would be to paint her Yale tears (btw, New Haven has the same effect on me, though in my case it's just my eyes' reaction to the stench of urban decay) as a calculated ploy to recapture the New Hampshire magic, and such a line does not work to her advantage.

February 4, 2008 3:36 PM

teplukhin2you said:

"Double Indemnity", Dan?

oops, wrong thread. Never mind /elitellovoice

February 4, 2008 3:43 PM

FRANNIE! said:

Things really don't look that good for Obama, AT ALL.  I'm an Obama supporter and would like things to be otherwise, but I fear that tonight is going to be NH all over again.  Except for one thing:  The latest SurveyUSA polls out of swing states already do show Clinton with sold, even double digit leads.  Those polls have far lower levels of undecideds than all the polls that favor Obama.  If they're right, HRC is going to sweep all the important states tonight.  

February 5, 2008 6:57 AM